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Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Kasatkina backed for upset in New York
Daria Kasatkina is tipped to pull off a minor upset against Paula Badosa in their US Open first round match. While Badosa is favored by bookmakers, her lack of hardcourt preparation and persistent injury issues raise doubts. Kasatkina, despite her own mixed form, has a stronger head-to-head record and more recent hardcourt action. The match is expected to be close and likely to go over 21.5 games, with the recommendation to back Kasatkina for a gritty three-set win. Fans can stream the match live with eligible betting accounts.
- Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa predictions for Tuesday's US Open R1
- Badosa under usual injury cloud, hasn't played on hardcourt this summer
- Both players trending Over 21.5 games, Kasatkina tipped for three-set win
- The match is scheduled to start around 3.00am AEST on Wednesday September 2
Expired
Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Daria Kasatkina is backed as the slight underdog against Paula Badosa in the US Open first round on Tuesday, with added value on the Aussie coming away with a three-set victory.
Not really sure you can justify Badosa being the favourite for this one.
The Spaniard hasn't played on hardcourt all summer and is constantly under an injury cloud, with her recent seasons plagued by back and hip problems.
Kasatkina hasn't been in great form herself, but at least she's played three hardcourt tournaments in the lead-up to the US Open, taking a set off World No. 2 Elena Rybakina in Canada, while she also holds a 4-3 winning record over Badosa in their H2H.
Badosa has won just four matches on hardcourt all season - she just doesn't have the matchplay on this surface under her belt.
So backing Kasatkina to emerge victorious in New York in a match that features Over 21.5 total games.
Kasatkina vs Badosa Stats & Trends
- Badosa is 4-7 on hardcourts this season
- Kasatkina has seen Over 21.5 games in eight of her last 10 matches
- Badosa has seen over 21.5 games in five of her last six completed matches
- Kasatkina's last five wins have come in three sets
- Badosa's last two defeats have come in three sets
- Kasatkina has won her last four US Open first round matches
Kasatkina vs Badosa Head To Head
Kasatkina holds a slight edge, this will be their first meeting of 2026.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Roland Garros | Clay | Round of 32 | Daria Kasatkina | 6–1, 7–5 |
| 2024 | Ningbo | Hard | Semi-final | Daria Kasatkina | 6–4 (match not completed) |
| 2024 | Wimbledon | Grass | Round of 32 | Paula Badosa | 7–6(6), 4–6, 6–4 |
| 2023 | Stuttgart | Clay | Round of 32 | Paula Badosa | 6–1, 6–1 |
| 2023 | Adelaide #2 | Hard | Semi-final | Daria Kasatkina | Walkover |
| 2022 | San Jose | Hard | Semi-final | Daria Kasatkina | 6–2, 6–4 |
| 2022 | Rome | Clay | Round of 16 | Daria Kasatkina | 6–4, 6–4 |
| 2022 | Sydney | Hard | Semi-final | Paula Badosa | 6–2, 6–2 |
Daria Kasatkina Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 11-17
- US Open Record: 14-11
- Current Ranking: No. 61
- Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2022)
It's been another tough season on the court for Kasatkina, who comes into the US Open having won just 11 matches.
The Aussie's best part of the year came on clay, where she made the quarter-finals of Strasbourg before a run to the third round of Roland Garros. Kasatkina also reached the third round of Wimbledon.
It hasn't been the best summer in North America, with Kasatkina going 1-3 in main draw matches, reaching the second round in Canada before going down in a tight three-setter to Elena Rybakina.
Kasatkina's last tournament before arriving in New York was in Cincinnati, where she was pipped 2-6 7-6(4) 6-3 by Zeynep Sonmez.
This will be Kasatkina's 12th appearance at the US Open, with her best result coming in 2023 when she made the fourth round.
Paula Badosa Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 14-16
- US Open Record: 6-5
- Current Ranking: No. 87
- Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (2022)
Badosa's career has been struck down by various injury problems since she hit that career-high ranking of No. 2 four years ago.
The Spaniard deals with chronic back and hip injuries, meaning she just can't sustain any sort of momentum on tour.
Badosa only won back-to-back matches once across the opening six months of the year, but she hit some good form on grass and the post-Wimbledon clay swing.
Indeed, Badosa beat Coco Gauff on her way to the Berlin quarter-finals before finishing runner-up on the clay of Iasi.
However, the 28-year-old hasn't played on hardcourt in the lead-up to the US Open. Badosa's best performance in New York came in 2024, where she made the quarter-finals before going down to Emma Navarro.
Kasatkina vs Badosa Live Stream
Watch and bet on Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
Badosa hasn't played on hardcourt in the lead-up to this tournament, so Kasatkina is backed for the upset in three sets.
Kasatkina Win
H2H
$2.12 - 2 Units
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Over 21.5
Total Games
$1.90 - 1 Unit
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Kasatkina 2-1
Set Betting
$4.75 - 1 Unit
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