Alex de Minaur vs Andrea Guerrieri US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon to cruise into second round
Alex de Minaur is set to face Andrea Guerrieri in the US Open's opening round, with the Aussie heavily favored for a comfortable win despite recent patchy form. Guerrieri, making his Grand Slam debut after successful qualifying, has no main draw experience and a 0-2 record against top-100 players. De Minaur has a strong track record against lower-ranked opponents and is predicted to win under 30.5 total games. Watch the match live via Unibet, with geo-restrictions and terms applying.
- Alex de Minaur vs Andrea Guerrieri predictions for Tuesday's US Open R1
- Guerrieri is playing a tour-level main draw for the first time & has never faced a top 50 player
- De Minaur tipped to be too strong, winning with Under 30.5 total games
- The match is scheduled to start around 7.00am AEST on Wednesday September 2
Alex de Minaur v Andrea Guerrieri Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > US Open. T&Cs apply.
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Alex de Minaur vs Andrea Guerrieri US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Despite being well below his best, this should be a routine first round victory for Alex de Minaur over Italian qualifier Andrea Guerrieri, with the Aussie tipped to prevail with Under 30.5 total games on Tuesday in New York.
It's been a challenging last few months on the tour for De Minaur, but he remains inside the top 10 and has a good chance to restore some confidence and belief with a favourable opening round draw here.
Guerrieri has never played a tour-level main draw match in his career. The 27-year-old came through qualifying and has a 0-2 lifetime record against top 100 opponents. Now he faces a top 10 player in a Grand Slam. Lots of 'firsts' for the Italian here.
De Minaur has given no indication he's ready to make a fourth US Open quarter-final, but he should get through this encounter with minimal fuss.
The Demon hasn't lost to a player outside the top 100 at a slam since 2020 and I'm backing the World No. 7 to complete the win with Under 30.5 total games as the only play for this clash.
De Minaur vs Guerrieri Stats & Trends
- De Minaur has won his last 15 Grand Slam matches vs players outside the top 100
- De Minaur's last five Grand Slam wins over players outside the top 100 have come in straight sets
- De Minaur's last four Grand Slam wins over players outside the top 100 have seen Under 30.5 total games
- Guerrieri is 0-2 vs top 100 players & has never played a tour-level main draw match before
De Minaur vs Guerrieri Head To Head
This will be the first meeting between the pair.
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 32-17
- US Open Record: 22-9
- Current Ranking: No. 7
- Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (July 2026)
It's still been a solid season for De Minaur, but he's suffered various poor defeats over the last few months and gone 5-7 in his last 12 matches vs top 50 opponents.
That's a good indication of the level de Minaur is really operating at right now - certainly not someone with the ranking of No. 7 next to his name.
It's been a decidedly average summer for the Aussie - he was knocked out of the Washington quarter-finals by Brandon Nakashima and lost his second match in Canada to Cameron Norrie. De Minaur was then no match for Arthur Fils in the Cincinnati R16.
De Minaur has made the US Open quarter-finals in his last two appearances at Flushing Meadows.
Andrea Guerrieri Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 0-0
- US Open Record: 0-0
- Current Ranking: No. 187
- Career-High Ranking: No. 187 (Aug 2026)
Guerrieri has toiled away on the Challenger and Futures circuits for years and that hard work is beginning to get rewarded, hitting a career-high ranking of No. 187 coming into this tournament.
The 27-year-old has won one Challenger title this year and finished runner-up in another, but no doubt his best result of the season came here in US Open qualifying, where he won three matches over August Holmgren, Joel Schwaerzler and Aziz Dougaz to enter not only his first Grand Slam main draw, but his first ever tour-level tournament.
It's a big step up in class for Guerrieri, who hasn't even faced a top 50 player in his career, let alone someone ranked inside the top 10. Guerrieri's only two previous meetings with top 100 players ended in defeats to Daniel Altmaier and Mattia Bellucci this year in Challengers.
De Minaur vs Guerrieri Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Andrea Guerrieri live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
De Minaur shouldn't have any troubles winning this match with Under 30.5 total games - even a decently competitive 6-4 6-4 6-4 win for the Aussie would see this bet land.
De Minaur & Under 30.5
H2H/Total Games
$1.65 - 3 Units
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