Alexandra Eala vs Mary Stoiana US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Stoiana targets upset in Grand Slam debut
Alexandra Eala, the 17th seed, faces local qualifier Mary Stoiana in the US Open's first round. Eala has struggled in recent Grand Slams, losing early despite impressive progress on tour. Meanwhile, Stoiana arrives with high confidence, consistently winning sets and thriving on big stages after a successful college career. The key recommendation is to back Stoiana to win at least a set, cover the spread, or possibly cause an upset, given Eala’s pressure and Stoiana’s home advantage and form.
- Alexandra Eala vs Mary Stoiana predictions for Tuesday's US Open R1
- Eala has lost in R1 in two of the three slams so far this season
- Stoiana confident following three wins from qualifying, holds some value for the upset
- The match is scheduled to start around 11.00am AEST on Wednesday September 2
Alexandra Eala v Mary Stoiana Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > US Open Women. T&Cs apply.
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Alexandra Eala vs Mary Stoiana US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alexandra Eala has lost in the first round in two of her three Grand Slam appearances this season and is worth opposing as she comes up against confident local qualifier Mary Stoiana in Tuesday night's first round US Open showdown on Louis Armstrong Stadium.
Would I be confident backing Eala as a $1.20 favourite and to cover a -5.5 line as the 17th seed in just her second US Open, with the pressure of an entire nation on her shoulders? Absolutely not.
Which is why I'm going to tentatively play some bets favouring Stoiana here - main play for the American qualifier to win a set, along with covering a +5.5 line and winning outright.
Eala has put together a meteoric rise and is probably the most watched/followed tennis player in the world when you factor in her passionate Filipino fans. But, she's still a relative newcomer to the tour and now she's a top 20 seed at a slam for the first time.
I watched Eala buckle under the pressure in the Australian Open, when after winning the first set 6-0, she dropped the next two 3-6 2-6 to lose in the first round to World No. 99 Alycia Parks.
Eala also lost in the first round of Roland Garros to Iva Jovic. The point is that the 21-year-old still has a lot to prove at this level and now she comes up against someone with nothing to lose and with three wins already at this tournament.
Stoiana has never faced a top 50 player before, but she should thrive in a late-night US Open encounter having starred in college tennis for the Texas A&M Aggies. I also love the fact Stoiana has won a set in nine of her last 10 defeats - that showcases her fighting qualities and never-say-die attitude.
I think the 23-year-old can make this match competitive and she's not without a chance of pulling off the best win of her young career.
Eala vs Stoiana Stats & Trends
- Eala has lost in R1 in two of the three Grand Slams in 2026
- Eala has dropped 1+ set in her last five completed matches
- Eala has dropped 1+ set in three of her last four matches vs players ranked 100+
- Stoiana has won five of her last six matches at all levels
- Stoiana has won 1+ set in 26 of her last 27 matches at all levels
Eala vs Stoiana Head To Head
This will be the first tour-level meeting between the pair, but Eala did prevail 7-5 6-2 in an ITF match in Landisville in 2024.
Alexandra Eala Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 31-19
- US Open Record: 1-1
- Current Ranking: No. 18
- Career-High Ranking: No. 18 (Aug 2026)
It's been a stellar season for Eala and she's really picked things up since the grass swing, coming into this tournament having won 14 of her last 19 matches.
That run has included a semi-final run in Berlin and fourth round showing at Wimbledon, while she followed those results up by winning the WTA 500 title in Washington. Eala ran out of gas for her next two tournaments, losing in the R16 of Toronto and the second round in Cincinnati.
But Eala has proven her ability to beat the very best players in the world, holding a superb 7-3 record against top 10 players.
Eala will now try to handle the pressure of being the hunted after taking the 17th seed for this US Open, where she made the second round on debut last year.
Mary Stoiana Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 0-4
- US Open Record: 0-0
- Current Ranking: No. 122
- Career-High Ranking: No. 122 (Aug 2026)
Stoiana honed her skills playing college tennis for the Texas A&M Aggies, where she led the team to their first national championship in 2024.
The 23-year-old has since turned pro and is gradually rising up the rankings through a combination of ITF and WTA events.
Stoiana successfully qualified for Cincinnati just before the US Open, but was upstaged in the first round by Tereza Valentova.
However, the American bounced back superbly from that defeat, beating Harmony Tan, Katie Swan and Yue Yuan to qualify for her maiden Grand Slam main draw. Stoiana will now face a top 50 player for the first time.
Eala vs Stoiana Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alexandra Eala vs Mary Stoiana live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Eala can't be backed at such short odds, so taking a punt on Stoiana to cause the upset in her home slam.
Stoiana +5.5
Games Line
$1.75 - 3 Units
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Stoiana
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$2.15 - 2 Units
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