Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz on upset alert in singles return
Carlos Alcaraz's return to Grand Slam singles at the US Open 2026 sees him face a tough opener against Roman Safiullin. While Alcaraz is coming back from a lengthy wrist injury, Safiullin himself has limited recent play but poses a strong challenge. With both players having question marks, experts recommend backing Over 35.5 total games, and suggest Safiullin may cover a +5.5 game spread. A potential upset is possible, so value exists in supporting the Russian as well. Watch live via Unibet if eligible.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin predictions for Monday's US Open R1
- Alcaraz playing first singles match since April, question marks surround fitness
- Safiullin has beaten Alcaraz before, can be a threat again in New York
- The match is scheduled to start around 3.00am AEST on Tuesday September 1
Carlos Alcaraz v Roman Safiullin Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > US Open. T&Cs apply.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Carlos Alcaraz has copped an extremely dangerous opponent in his first singles match since April, with Roman Safiullin equipped with immense firepower and a previous win over the Spaniard. No value in backing Alcaraz with so many question marks surrounding his return, so Over 35.5 total games is the main play, with Safiullin covering a +5.5 start and smaller stakes on the Russian prevailing outright.
Certainly not an ideal opponent for Alcaraz as he makes his official competitive return to tennis from a wrist injury that has sidelined him since April. The Spaniard was on show during the opening week of the US Open, playing alongside Serena Williams in the mixed doubles and getting some practice matches under his belt, but none of that compares to Grand Slam singles matchplay.
We've seen Alcaraz arrive at the US Open underdone before after winning the 2024 Olympics, where he ended up losing in straight sets in the first round to Botic Van De Zandschulp - and I wouldn't be surprised at a similar outcome here.
Safiullin is one of the most dangerous unseeded opponents Alcaraz could have faced, but the Russian hasn't played much since a fourth round run at Wimbledon, where he came from qualifying and ultimately took a set off Novak Djokovic. So there's also some question marks around Safiullin too.
But as mentioned, can't confidently back Alcaraz as the heavy favourite here. I think even with Alcaraz fully fit, Safiullin could push this Over 35.5 total games, so that appeals as the best bet. I will also play the Russian with a big +5.5 start, with smaller stakes on the upset.
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Stats & Trends
- Alcaraz hasn't played a competitive singles match since April
- Safiullin has a 3-0 record in US Open first round matches
- Alcaraz has seen Over 35.5 games in three of his last four Grand Slam matches
- Safiullin has won eight of his last 11 matches
- Safiullin has seen Over 35.5 games in four of his last five Grand Slam matches
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Head To Head
Level at 1-1, with Alcaraz avenging a Paris Masters loss to Safiullin on his way to Olympic Gold.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | Paris Olympics | Round of 16 | Outdoor Clay | 6–4, 6–2 |
| 2023 | Roman Safiullin | ATP Masters 1000 Paris | Round of 32 | Indoor Hard | 6–3, 6–4 |
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 22-3
- US Open Record: 24-3
- Current Ranking: No. 3
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)
It was a brilliant start to the season for Alcaraz as he completed the Career Grand Slam by winning his first Australian Open title.
Alcaraz went on a 16-match winning streak to launch the year, also winning the Doha title and making the semi-finals of Indian Wells.
However, the Spaniard was derailed by a wrist injury, which forced him to withdraw from Barcelona in April - and he hasn't played since.
The 23-year-old got one match in mixed doubles under his belt alongside Serena Williams last week, but insists he's ready for best-of-five singles.
“My team and me, [we] believe that I'm ready. It wasn't an easy decision,” Alcaraz said.
“I just did whatever it took to be ready. I just tried to do everything perfect on and off the court, to feel ready, really long practices, really intense practices, just to see how my wrist is going to react on the practices and after [those] really long days.”
Alcaraz won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2022, becoming the youngest World No. 1 in history in the process. He's also the defending champion having defeated Djokovic and Sinner back-to-back in the semis and final last year.
Roman Safiullin Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 3-4
- US Open Record: 3-3
- Current Ranking: No. 99
- Career-High Ranking: No. 36 (2024)
Safiullin has also spent a large chunk of time on the sidelines injured, rebuilding his ranking and form on the Challenger circuit before recently re-entering the top 100.
After qualifying for Roland Garros and taking Casper Ruud to five sets, Safiullin did so again at Wimbledon before advancing all the way to the fourth round, toppling Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca along the way. Novak Djokovic eventually stopped him in four sets.
The 29-year-old remains a huge threat on tour and is no stranger to deep major runs after making the quarter-finals of Wimbledon in 2024, which propelled him inside the top 40 for the first time.
Safiullin has only played two tournaments since that aforementioned Wimbledon run, making the quarter-finals of a Challenger in Cancun before last week's opening round loss in Winston-Salem to Hugo Grenier.
Alcaraz vs Safiullin Live Stream
Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman Safiullin live tennis from the US Open.
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Verdict
Alcaraz is on upset alert in New York - Safiullin also a bit underdone, but the value is with the Russian to cover and push this Over 35.5 games.
Over 35.5
Total Games
$1.60 - 3 Units
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Safiullin +5.5
Games Line
$1.90 - 2 Units
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Safiullin Win
H2H
$4.60 - 1 Unit
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Safiullin 3-1
Set Betting
$11.00 - 1 Unit
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