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Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Swiatek's ruthless AO run to continue into first final
- Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys predictions for Thursday's Australian Open semi-final
- Swiatek has dropped just seven games in her last four matches combined
- Swiatek has won four of the five previous meetings, covering a -5.5 games line in all four
- Keys has a 1-5 record in major semi-finals (0-2 at the AO)
- The match is scheduled to start around 9.30pm AEDT on Thursday January 23
Expired

Iga Swiatek (Photo by Getty Images)
Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Iga Swiatek will be aiming to reach her first Australian Open final when she comes up against Adelaide champion Madison Keys in the semi-finals on Thursday night.
- Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
- Head To Head
- Iga Swiatek Form
- Madison Keys Form
- Live Stream
Swiatek has been in swashbuckling form this tournament, advancing to the semi-finals without dropping a set and barely losing games in the process. In fact, over her last four rounds, Swiatek has only lost seven games combined, holding serve on every occasion. With this in mind, Swiatek is backed to cover a -5.5 games line against Keys, who is admittedly playing very well herself, but has a poor 1-4 record against the Pole, along with going 1-5 in Grand Slam semi-finals throughout her career (0-2 at the AO).
Head To Head
Swiatek has won four of the five previous meetings between the pair - and all four have come in straight sets, covering a -5.5 games handicap in each.
Iga Swiatek Form
It was a difficult second-half of 2024 for Swiatek, losing her No. 1 ranking and copping a short ban after being sanctioned for failing a drugs test.
However, Swiatek has seemingly left her problems in 2024 and is back to some of her best tennis in Melbourne after her fitness was questioned during a straight sets loss to Coco Gauff in the United Cup to launch 2025.
Swiatek has put any concerns over her physical state aside emphatically, bruising her way through the Australian Open draw. Indeed, Swiatek has lost the fourth-fewest number of games (14) on her way to the Australian Open semi-finals in the tournament's 128-player draw history - and half of them came in the first round against Katerina Siniakova.
Since then, Swiatek has defeated Rebecca Sramkova (6-0 6-2), Emma Raducanu (6-1 6-0), Eva Lys (6-0 6-1) and Emma Navarro (6-1 6-2). Navarro was the first seed (8th) Swiatek faced for the tournament, but the 23-year-old continued her dominant form to reach a second Australian Open semi-final.
Madison Keys Form
What a difference a year makes. This time 12 months ago, Keys was nursing a shoulder injury and missed the opening two months of the season. Now, the American is on a 10-match winning streak and into a first Australian Open semi-final since 2022.
Keys produced some thunderous tennis to beat four top 20 players en route to the Adelaide title before arriving in Melbourne.
The 29-year-old has survived some lengthy battles to reach the final four, spending over three more hours on court than Swiatek for the tournament.
Indeed, Keys has gone the distance in three of her five matches, including overcoming former finalist Elena Rybakina and former top five player Elina Svitolina in the quarter-finals.
Live Stream
Watch and bet on Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys live Australian Open tennis.
You can watch and bet on the match live at bet365 > Tennis > Australian Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Keys has been on fire to start the season, but I think he run comes to an end here.
Swiatek is demolishing everything in her path at the moment, losing just seven games combined in her last four rounds. That's insane.
Swiatek is demolishing everything in her path at the moment, losing just seven games combined in her last four rounds. That's insane.
Additionally, Swiatek has beaten Keys in four of their five meetings, covering a -5.5 games line in all four straight sets victories.
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