2026 AFL Premiership Winner Odds - Weekly Updated Markets
The 2026 AFL Premiership odds are dynamic, shifting weekly as team performances reshape the market. Fremantle Dockers have taken the lead as outright favourites at $3.90 after Sydney's recent loss, followed closely by Geelong, Sydney, and Brisbane. The expanded finals system in 2026 makes lower-ranked teams like Melbourne and Western Bulldogs notable value bets. Historical data highlights significant fluctuations in odds due to upsets, injuries, and performance swings. Stay tuned for expert analysis and updates to keep a close eye on the evolving AFL premiership landscape.
- Fremantle Dockers are new 2026 AFL Premiership favourites at $4.00 at Picklebet.
- Geelong, Sydney, and Hawthorn remain strong contenders in volatile markets.
- Expanded finals offer value opportunities for teams like Melbourne and the Bulldogs.
The Lions pose with the Premiership Cup after winning the AFL Grand Final in 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
2026 AFL Premiership Odds - Weekly Tracker & Expert Insights
The race for the 2026 AFL Premiership is wide open and the odds are shifting weekly. This page is your destination for tracking the flag favourites, market movers, and the betting trends shaping this AFL season.
Check out the Full AFL 2026 Season Schedule.
Updated after every round, you’ll find a clear snapshot of the top premiership contenders, odds changes based on performance, and commentary on teams rising or falling in the betting market. From season kick-off to Grand Final day, our team will help you stay ahead of the bookies.
Expect expert observations, bookmaker value, and a round-by-round view of how the premiership picture is forming across the ladder.
Weekly Update
Fremantle $4 made it 11 straight wins with a dominant display over the defending premiers Brisbane Lions $9.50 who have fallen sharply down the odds rankings.
Geelong $6.50 also suffered a loss to Carlton $91 with the Blues shooting up the standings off the back of 3 straight wins.
Bookmakers seem to have put the line through the Western Bulldogs $41 while the GWS Giants $23 are still hanging around following 2 straight victories.
Geelong $6.50 also suffered a loss to Carlton $91 with the Blues shooting up the standings off the back of 3 straight wins.
Bookmakers seem to have put the line through the Western Bulldogs $41 while the GWS Giants $23 are still hanging around following 2 straight victories.
Round 13 Odds Snapshot
| AFL 2026 Grand Final Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | $4.00 |
| Sydney Swans | $5.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | $5.50 |
| Geelong Cats | $6.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | $9.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | $11.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | $23.00 |
| GWS Giants | $23.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | $41.00 |
| Western Bulldogs | $41.00 |
| Collingwood Magpies | $61.00 |
| Carlton Blues | $91.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | $141.00 |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | $141.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | $451.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | $701.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | $901.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | $901.00 |
Odds from Picklebet 01-06-2026
Historical Analysis
Round 11
Fremantle $3.90 are the outright favourites following Sydney's $4.60 loss at the weekend. Geelong $4.20 have shortened considerably over the past few weeks while the Lions $5, Hawks $6 and Suns $11 have felt the pinch from losing runs.
Melbourne $26 and Western Bulldogs $29 are two teams providing a lot of value given the expanded finals system in 2026.
Melbourne $26 and Western Bulldogs $29 are two teams providing a lot of value given the expanded finals system in 2026.
Round 10
Fremantle and Sydney keep winning while the Cats destroyed the Lions which has thrown the top order into disarray. Further down the list, the Giants have fallen after another horrific loss while the Dees and Blues salvaged some pride.
Round 9
Not much has changed at the top of the rankings with only the Fremantle Dockers $4.80 shortening somewhat and Hawthorn $5.50 after the Dockers beat the Hawks in a Rd 9 thriller.
Further down the pack, the Western Bulldogs $26 freefall has stopped while Port Adelaide $111 have hit triple figures.
Further down the pack, the Western Bulldogs $26 freefall has stopped while Port Adelaide $111 have hit triple figures.
Round 8
Some space has been created between Brisbane $3.25 and Sydney $4.00 despite both teams winning in Round 8. Similarly Adelaide $20 recede despite winning the Showdown as the underdog.
The Bulldogs $31 suffered another heartbreaking loss but looked good despite missing most of their defensive unit. They have dopped heavily while Collingwood $20 jump up.
Round 7
The Lions $3.80 and Swans $3.80 are neck and neck as we approach a third of the season played. Clear tiers of teams are forming behind them with the main contenders consisting of Hawthorn $4.80, Fremantle $5.50 and Gold Coast $8.50.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have taken a dramatic fall in recent weeks after being ravaged by injury while the Melbourne Demons $61 and Port Adelaide $76 present opportunity with the extended play in finals system.
The Western Bulldogs $16 have taken a dramatic fall in recent weeks after being ravaged by injury while the Melbourne Demons $61 and Port Adelaide $76 present opportunity with the extended play in finals system.
Round 6
The Bulldogs $14 have fallen away dramatically after a couple of straight losses while the Lions $3.50 have regained top spot.
Fremantle and the Hawks $5.50 have both shown to be contenders this season while Sydney $4.80 are currently in the hottest form.
Round 5
Back to back losses see the Suns fall in the odds rankings while injuries have hit the Western Bulldogs, causing them to lose and push out.
Sydney and Brisbane remain the top favourites while Fremantle and Hawthorn are gaining ground.
Round 4
The Suns $6.50 had a hard loss to the Dees over the weekend and the market has by all accounts overreacted. Brisbane $3.80 have regained top spot with the Swans $5.00, Bulldogs $5.50 right behind them.
Collingwood $31 have drifted again as have the Giants $51 and the Power $76 while Carlton $116 have hit triple figures.
Round 3
Round 3 brought some upsets and have shed some light on teams that are tipped to be scrapping for play-in spots.
Carlton $61 gave up a massive lead to the Dees $61 but neither team has had much movement in the odds rankings. Similarly Port Adelaide $51 lost to West Coast $151 but neither team has moved an inch.
Geelong $11.50 have come in a few dollars while St Kilda $41 have drifted out significantly with bookmakers still unsure on how to price the rollercoaster team of 2026.
Carlton $61 gave up a massive lead to the Dees $61 but neither team has had much movement in the odds rankings. Similarly Port Adelaide $51 lost to West Coast $151 but neither team has moved an inch.
Geelong $11.50 have come in a few dollars while St Kilda $41 have drifted out significantly with bookmakers still unsure on how to price the rollercoaster team of 2026.
Round 2
Round 2 saw some solid movement in the market with the Western Bulldogs coming in from $10 to $5.50. They are by far and large the team that has made up the most ground over the first 3 weeks of footy given how they have won and their opponents.
The Fremantle Dockers $8.50 have also shortened after a dominant victory over the Dees while the GWS Giants have drifted out to $31 with a long injury list that seems to just get longer each week.
Essendon are already gone and anchor the table at $376.
Round 1
Round 1 is in the books and it's the Western Bulldogs $8 who are the main movers up the odds rankings.Brisbane $5.50 have been slow out of the gates while St Kilda $56 have not shown enough to keep them in the top 10.
Opening Round
Opening Round is in the books and there were some surprises, St Kilda were not the team everyone thought they would be to start the year and have subsequently fallen down the odds rankings.
On the flip side the Gold Coast Suns are better than what everyone thought and now $5.00 favourites to win the Flag.
On the flip side the Gold Coast Suns are better than what everyone thought and now $5.00 favourites to win the Flag.
Sydney and the Bulldogs didn't hurt their odds by winning convincingly while the defending premiers are still second favourite despite losing.
Pre-season Analysis
Behind them are the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn Hawks and the Gold Coast Suns rounding out the top 4 in odds rankings. Gold Coast are coming off their first ever finals appearance last season and have added some big names in Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, while the Swans are 3rd favourites despite not making finals in 2025. Hawthorn are one of the biggest unknowns coming into 2026.
The Fremantle Dockers are a outside chance with their young squad brimming with talent. St Kilda are a team many experts believe will be on the rise, pushing for a top 6 spot in 2026 but detractors are saying they need to see results first.
In any case, the 2026 AFL Premiership season is already shaping up to be one of the fiercest and most hotly contested in recent memory. Follow us here at Bets.com.au to get your weekly update of AFL Premiership Odds news once the season kicks into gear!
2026 AFL Premiership Season FAQ's
Who is favourite to win the 2026 AFL Premiership?
The Fremantle Dockers are currently favoured at $4.00 to win their first ever flag.
Can Premiership Odds move on a week to week basis?
Yes, odds move depending on outcomes of weekly matchups between teams as well as other results from around the league. All odds are updated on this page on a weekly basis.
When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?
The 2026 AFL Grand Final will be played on the final Saturday in September, which in 2026 is the 26th. The game normally starts at 2pm AEDT.
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