Who is favourite to win the 2026 AFL Premiership?

The Brisbane Lions are currently favoured at $2.50 to win their 3rd straight flag.

Can Premiership Odds move on a week to week basis?

Yes, odds move depending on outcomes of weekly matchups between teams as well as other results from around the league. All odds are updated on this page on a weekly basis.

When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?

The 2026 AFL Grand Final will be played on the final Saturday in September, which in 2026 is the 26th. The game normally starts at 2pm AEDT.

2026 AFL Premiership Winner Odds - Weekly Updated Markets

Ryan Tucker

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Fact Checked by Andrew Hendrie

Last updated: Tue 08 Sep 2026 08:54

Ryan Tucker 08 Sep 2026

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Hawthorn leads the 2026 AFL Premiership odds at $3.20 after key finals upsets.
Brisbane, Fremantle, and Sydney remain top contenders, odds shift weekly based on results.
Experts provide round-by-round insights, tracking market movers and underdog surges.

The Lions pose with the Premiership Cup after winning the AFL Grand Final in 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

2026 AFL Premiership Odds - Weekly Tracker & Expert Insights

The race for the 2026 AFL Premiership is narrowing by the week. This page is your destination for tracking the flag favourites, market movers, and the betting trends shaping this AFL season.

Check out the Full AFL 2026 Season Schedule.

Updated after every round, you’ll find a clear snapshot of the top premiership contenders, odds changes based on performance, and commentary on teams rising or falling in the betting market. From season kick-off to Grand Final day, our team will help you stay ahead of the bookies.

Expect expert observations, bookmaker value, and a round-by-round view of how the premiership picture is forming across the ladder.

Weekly Update

Both Fremantle $5 and Brisbane $4.40 lost their qualifying finals and will have to go the long way around to reach a grand final.

Hawthorn $3.20 are now the odds leaders while Sydney $5.50 have shortened dramatically. Adelaide $17 are outsiders while you can never discount the Cats $8.

Finals Odds Snapshot

AFL 2026 Grand Final Winner	Odds
Hawthorn Hawks	$3.20
Brisbane Lions	$4.40
Fremantle Dockers	$5.00
Sydney Swans	$5.50
Geelong Cats	$8.00
Adelaide Crows	$17.00

Odds from Picklebet 08-09-2026

Historical Analysis

Finals Week 1

What a Wildcard weekend that was! Carlton $16 were given next to no chance earlier in the year and were still paying $91 after their 3rd straight win in Rd 12. They are the team with the most momentum right now.

Brisbane $2.60 still lead the odds rankings while Sydney $20 are unknown given the loss of a handful of star players for off-field problems.

Wildcard Round

The first ever Wildcard Weekend is upon us and the matchups are juicy with Western Bulldogs ($61) vs Collingwood ($71) on Friday night at the MCG and Melbourne ($34) vs Carlton ($29) on Saturday night also at the MCG.

The Dees are still the team offering the most value from a premiership perspective but they need to do a lot to get there. Brisbane $2.50 have taken over as odds leaders thanks to Fremantle's ($2.75) poor performance in the final game of the regular season.

Round 24

Most of the Round 24 games went as expected but Fremantle went down by 37 pts to Carlton in Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs won by 21 over Melbourne for the Dee's first loss at the G this season.

Hawthorn tried their best to boost their percentage with a big win over West Coast, but Brisbane had already beaten Collingwood by 63 pts earlier in the weekend to put it just out of reach.

Round 23

Round 23 saw the top 10 teams confirmed for the AFL Post-Season but there are still a number of teams jockeying for positions - check out our Final Ladder Predictions ahead of the final round of the year.

Fremantle $2.70 have shortened dramatically following the off-field problems surrounding Sydney $8.50 who have fallen away.

Melbourne $18 are probably the best darkhorse currently outside the top 4.

Round 22

Round 22 brought a couple upsets but also took us one step closer to securing our first ever top 10 teams for Wild Card Round.

Fremantle Dockers $3.20 lost to Melbourne Demons $21 who have shortened dramatically as they make an effort for a top 4 finish. The Sydney Swans $6.50 obliterated Port Adelaide in an offensive masterclass while Carlton $51 effectively halved their odds with a win over St Kilda $201.

If the Blues win this weekend the top 10 is secured with the top 9 teams already far enough ahead.

Round 21

The Fremantle Dockers $3 are clear favourites still to win the flag after securing a minor premiership last weekend, this Dockers team is the first in club history to win 18 games and on field they look a mile ahead of their competition.

Despite losing by 76 pts to Carlton $67, the Brisbane Lions $5 remain second favourites with the Sydney Swans $7 in third spot.

Adelaide $14 are the darkhorse and if they make it into the top 4 could be a lot shorter than what they are this week.

Round 20

Fremantle and Brisbane have further strengthened their positions at the top of the premiership market after another pair of emphatic victories, with the Dockers shortening to $3.30 and the Lions into $3.75.

Sydney firmed into $8.00 after dismantling GWS by 51 points in the Sydney Derby, while Geelong continued its late-season surge with a convincing 20-point win over Melbourne to tighten from $21.00 into $17.00. Hawthorn also remains firmly in premiership calculations after a 93-point demolition of Essendon, holding steady at $7.50.

Collingwood's impressive 34-point win over Adelaide has seen the Magpies halve in price to $34.00, while GWS drifted sharply to $201 following their heavy derby defeat. Adelaide also eased to $14.00 after failing to capitalise at home against the Magpies.

Round 19

Fremantle and the Lions stay strong with the shortest odds in the eyes of the bookmaker, as they compete for the Minor Premiership along with the Swans and the Hawks.

Sydney have held thier position after a close victory over the Adelaide Crows in Round 19, while despite the Cats getting up comfortably against the Saints their chances of a premiership weakened to $21.00

At the other end of the table, the Gold Coast Suns hopes of salvaging their season have deminished afeter thier eigth straight loss, falling to the Western Bulldogs, while GWS's shock loss to the Bombers sees them slip to $101.00 for the Premiership.

Round 18

The Fremantle Dockers $3.20 came from behind and then belted the Sydney Swans $7.50 last week with the Swans falling down to 3rd in the odds rankings.

The Brisbane Lions $4.20 also got another win but it was against Essendon who are the first team to exit the odds rankings this year. Geelong $12, Carlton $61 and Gold Coast $91 have all receded in odds thanks to injury and bad form.

While at the other end Hawthorn $7.50, Adelaide $12 and GWS $61 and St Kilda $61 have all risen off the back of wins and spots of good form.

Round 17

What a difference a week can make. The Brisbane Lions $4.00 shorten once again and are closing the gap to Fremantle Dockers $3.50 who still lead the odds race despite dropping their game to GWS $76 last weekend.

The Gold Coast Suns $61 opened the season as favourites but will struggle to even make the Wild Card race with Carlton $41 and Melbourne $23 doing great things at the moment.

There is a definite gap between the top teams and the rest, but there are still enough weeks left in the season for some big changes to happen.

Round 16

Round 16 offered some interesting results as the last bye round of the season. Brisbane Lions $5.00 forced the bookies to react with a 43 pt win over Sydney Swans $6.50 who dropped a couple of ranking spots. GWS $91 have blown completely out after another tough loss while St Kilda $136 also saw a massive rise despite not even playing.

Western Bulldogs $31 have shortened and despite losing on the weekend Adelaide $12.50 only dopped marginally while their opponent Port Adelaide $901 who won are now effectively priced out of contention.

Round 15

The Fremantle Dockers $3.50 extended their winning streak by taking down Geelong $8 who now have their bye in Rd16.

The Western Bulldogs $31 have climbed a few spots again off the back of a gritty win over St Kilda $71 with both teams also on the bye in Rd16.

Its otherwise pretty stable through the odds rankings as the top half of the ladder starts to take shape.

Round 14

The Sydney Swans $5 escaped with a win over Port Adelaide $451 which the bookies didn't like. Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane $7.50 are all now evenly ranked.

Adelaide $12 and St Kilda $76 have made sizeable jumps following impressive Rd 14 victories.

Odds leaders Fremantle $3.50 had the bye last round so their number remains untouched.

Round 13

12 straight wins now for Fremantle $3.50 who solidify top spot in the rankings. Brisbane $8.50 recouped some ground with a solid win over the Gold Coast Suns $14.

The Western Bulldogs $21 have shortened dramatically with Bookmakers still struggling to get a grip on what this team can offer in 2026.

Collingwood $91 continue to drift but are still a shot at the Wild Card and maybe getting a dream run through finals.

Round 12

Fremantle $4 made it 11 straight wins with a dominant display over the defending premiers Brisbane Lions $9.50 who have fallen sharply down the odds rankings.

Geelong $6.50 also suffered a loss to Carlton $91 with the Blues shooting up the standings off the back of 3 straight wins.

Bookmakers seem to have put the line through the Western Bulldogs $41 while the GWS Giants $23 are still hanging around following 2 straight victories.

Round 11

Fremantle $3.90 are the outright favourites following Sydney's $4.60 loss at the weekend. Geelong $4.20 have shortened considerably over the past few weeks while the Lions $5, Hawks $6 and Suns $11 have felt the pinch from losing runs.

Melbourne $26 and Western Bulldogs $29 are two teams providing a lot of value given the expanded finals system in 2026.

Round 10

Fremantle and Sydney keep winning while the Cats destroyed the Lions which has thrown the top order into disarray. Further down the list, the Giants have fallen after another horrific loss while the Dees and Blues salvaged some pride.

Round 9

Not much has changed at the top of the rankings with only the Fremantle Dockers $4.80 shortening somewhat and Hawthorn $5.50 after the Dockers beat the Hawks in a Rd 9 thriller.

Further down the pack, the Western Bulldogs $26 freefall has stopped while Port Adelaide $111 have hit triple figures.

Round 8

Some space has been created between Brisbane $3.25 and Sydney $4.00 despite both teams winning in Round 8. Similarly Adelaide $20 recede despite winning the Showdown as the underdog.

The Bulldogs $31 suffered another heartbreaking loss but looked good despite missing most of their defensive unit. They have dopped heavily while Collingwood $20 jump up.

Round 7

The Lions $3.80 and Swans $3.80 are neck and neck as we approach a third of the season played. Clear tiers of teams are forming behind them with the main contenders consisting of Hawthorn $4.80, Fremantle $5.50 and Gold Coast $8.50.

The Western Bulldogs $16 have taken a dramatic fall in recent weeks after being ravaged by injury while the Melbourne Demons $61 and Port Adelaide $76 present opportunity with the extended play in finals system.

Round 6

The Bulldogs $14 have fallen away dramatically after a couple of straight losses while the Lions $3.50 have regained top spot.

Fremantle and the Hawks $5.50 have both shown to be contenders this season while Sydney $4.80 are currently in the hottest form.

Round 5

Back to back losses see the Suns fall in the odds rankings while injuries have hit the Western Bulldogs, causing them to lose and push out.

Sydney and Brisbane remain the top favourites while Fremantle and Hawthorn are gaining ground.

Round 4

The Suns $6.50 had a hard loss to the Dees over the weekend and the market has by all accounts overreacted. Brisbane $3.80 have regained top spot with the Swans $5.00, Bulldogs $5.50 right behind them.

Collingwood $31 have drifted again as have the Giants $51 and the Power $76 while Carlton $116 have hit triple figures.

Round 3

Round 3 brought some upsets and have shed some light on teams that are tipped to be scrapping for play-in spots.

Carlton $61 gave up a massive lead to the Dees $61 but neither team has had much movement in the odds rankings. Similarly Port Adelaide $51 lost to West Coast $151 but neither team has moved an inch.

Geelong $11.50 have come in a few dollars while St Kilda $41 have drifted out significantly with bookmakers still unsure on how to price the rollercoaster team of 2026.

Round 2

Round 2 saw some solid movement in the market with the Western Bulldogs coming in from $10 to $5.50. They are by far and large the team that has made up the most ground over the first 3 weeks of footy given how they have won and their opponents.

The Fremantle Dockers $8.50 have also shortened after a dominant victory over the Dees while the GWS Giants have drifted out to $31 with a long injury list that seems to just get longer each week.

Essendon are already gone and anchor the table at $376.

Round 1

Round 1 is in the books and it's the Western Bulldogs $8 who are the main movers up the odds rankings.Brisbane $5.50 have been slow out of the gates while St Kilda $56 have not shown enough to keep them in the top 10.

Opening Round

Opening Round is in the books and there were some surprises, St Kilda were not the team everyone thought they would be to start the year and have subsequently fallen down the odds rankings.

On the flip side the Gold Coast Suns are better than what everyone thought and now $5.00 favourites to win the Flag.

Sydney and the Bulldogs didn't hurt their odds by winning convincingly while the defending premiers are still second favourite despite losing.

Pre-season Analysis

The Brisbane Lions are the early favourites to pick up a third consecutive premiership in 2026. A feat they impressively achieved back in 2001-2003. They have added Sam Draper and Oscar Allen to their list and are rightful favourites.

Behind them are the Sydney Swans, Hawthorn Hawks and the Gold Coast Suns rounding out the top 4 in odds rankings. Gold Coast are coming off their first ever finals appearance last season and have added some big names in Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, while the Swans are 3rd favourites despite not making finals in 2025. Hawthorn are one of the biggest unknowns coming into 2026.

The Fremantle Dockers are a outside chance with their young squad brimming with talent. St Kilda are a team many experts believe will be on the rise, pushing for a top 6 spot in 2026 but detractors are saying they need to see results first.

In any case, the 2026 AFL Premiership season is already shaping up to be one of the fiercest and most hotly contested in recent memory. Follow us here at Bets.com.au to get your weekly update of AFL Premiership Odds news once the season kicks into gear!

2026 AFL Premiership Season FAQ's

Who is favourite to win the 2026 AFL Premiership?
The Brisbane Lions are currently favoured at $2.50 to win their 3rd straight flag.
Can Premiership Odds move on a week to week basis?
Yes, odds move depending on outcomes of weekly matchups between teams as well as other results from around the league. All odds are updated on this page on a weekly basis.
When is the 2026 AFL Grand Final?
The 2026 AFL Grand Final will be played on the final Saturday in September, which in 2026 is the 26th. The game normally starts at 2pm AEDT.