AFL Final Ladder Predictions 2026: Round 24 Finals Scenarios

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Mon 17 Aug 2026 11:02

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Fremantle and Sydney tipped to finish 1st and 2nd after Round 24.
Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Melbourne fight for top-four; wildcards at stake.
Collingwood, Bulldogs, and Carlton face key matches to decide travel/hosting.

Mabior Chol, Mitch Lewis and Lloyd Meek of the Hawks. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

AFL 2026 Final Ladder Predictions: Where Every Finals Team Can Finish After Round 24

The AFL finals teams are locked in, but almost everything else remains up for grabs heading into Round 24.

AFL 2026 Final Ladder Predictions: Where Every Finals Team Can Finish After Round 24
1. Fremantle
2. Sydney
3. Brisbane
4. Hawthorn
5. Melbourne
6. Geelong
7. Adelaide
8. Collingwood
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Carlton
Our Predicted 2026 AFL Final Ladder

Fremantle will finish on top of the ladder and Sydney are in the box seat for second, but the battle underneath them could completely reshape the opening week of the 2026 AFL Finals.

Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne are fighting for top-four positions, while Geelong and Adelaide remain firmly in the mix for a week off under the AFL's top-10 finals system.

Then there is the wildcard race, Collingwood, the Western Bulldogs and Carlton know they will play finals, but Round 24 will determine who hosts and who travels when the wildcard games get underway.

Here is what every top-10 team is playing for in the final round, followed by our prediction for how the 2026 AFL ladder will finish. To find out more on the structure of finals and wildcard check out our 2026 AFL Finals Format article.

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1. Fremantle

Round 24: Carlton v Fremantle

The minor premiership belongs to Fremantle regardless of what happens against Carlton. That takes some of the pressure off the Dockers heading to Marvel Stadium, although their opponent in the qualifying final remains very much undecided.

Fremantle could potentially face Brisbane, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Geelong or Adelaide in week one of the finals depending on how Round 24 unfolds. A win over Carlton would also force the Blues into 10th position.

Our prediction: 1st

2. Sydney

Round 24: Sydney v North Melbourne

Sydney are guaranteed a top-two finish and therefore a home qualifying final at the SCG but the question is who comes to Sydney and following the scandal breaking post Rd 23, what players will be available for the Swans.

Brisbane currently have the inside running, but Hawthorn can move into third if the Lions lose to Collingwood. Percentage could also become important if both Brisbane and Hawthorn win.

Our prediction: 2nd

3. Brisbane

Round 24: Collingwood v Brisbane

Friday night could have enormous consequences for the Lions. Beat Collingwood at the MCG and Brisbane will be extremely difficult to dislodge from the top four. If they maintain their percentage advantage over Hawthorn, they would finish third and head to the SCG to face Sydney.

Lose and things become considerably more complicated. Hawthorn, Melbourne and Geelong can all potentially move above Brisbane, while Adelaide also have a mathematical route past the Lions if results and percentage swings fall their way.

Brisbane could therefore go from a qualifying final to potentially finishing as low as seventh.

Our prediction: 3rd

4. Hawthorn

Round 24: West Coast v Hawthorn

Hawthorn control their own destiny, if they beat West Coast at Optus Stadium then they are guaranteed a top-four finish and a qualifying final.

If Brisbane lose on Friday night, Hawthorn would climb to third and travel to Sydney. If Brisbane win, the most likely outcome has the Hawks finishing fourth and travelling to Perth to face Fremantle. A shock loss to West Coast, however, opens the door for Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide.

Our prediction: 4th

5. Melbourne

Round 24: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Melbourne can guarantee themselves a week off with victory over the Western Bulldogs but more importantly, a win combined with a Brisbane or Hawthorn defeat would push the Demons into the top four.

There is even a mathematical route into the four if Brisbane and Hawthorn both win, although Melbourne would need a significant percentage swing.

A loss is where the danger lies. If the Bulldogs beat Melbourne and both Geelong and Adelaide win, the Demons could fall to seventh and suddenly find themselves playing a wildcard final.

Our prediction: 5th

6. Geelong

Round 24: Geelong v Richmond

Geelong have one of the most favourable match-ups among the top-six contenders, hosting Richmond at GMHBA Stadium. A victory should be enough to secure a top-six finish and the week off, although Adelaide could theoretically jump the Cats with a large enough percentage swing.

The Cats can even sneak into the top four if enough results fall their way, with two of Brisbane, Hawthorn and Melbourne needing to lose. Lose to Richmond, however, and an Adelaide victory over GWS could dump Geelong into seventh.

Our prediction: 6th

7. Adelaide

Round 24: Adelaide v GWS

The Crows still have plenty to play for, they can break into the top six if they beat GWS and one of the teams above them slips up, although percentage will determine several of those scenarios.

There is even a highly unlikely path into the top four if three of Brisbane, Hawthorn, Melbourne and Geelong lose and the required percentage swings follow.

The more realistic scenario is seventh and if the teams above them take care of business, Adelaide will host a wildcard final against either Carlton or the Western Bulldogs.

Our prediction: 7th

8. Collingwood

Round 24: Collingwood v Brisbane

Collingwood can make life simple by beating Brisbane on Friday night with a victory guaranteeing the Magpies eighth position and a home wildcard final at the MCG against either the Western Bulldogs or Carlton.

There is technically an opportunity to climb even higher, but the Pies would require huge percentage swings to catch Adelaide or Geelong. A loss brings ninth place into play if the Bulldogs beat Melbourne.

Our prediction: 8th

9. Western Bulldogs

Round 24: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs have a huge opportunity at the MCG, if they beat Melbourne then they guarantee themselves a wildcard final against Collingwood unless an unlikely combination of results and percentage swings pushes the Magpies past Adelaide.

If Collingwood lose and the Dogs win, the Bulldogs would move into eighth and could earn the right to host the wildcard clash. A loss leaves Carlton with an opportunity to move above them.

Our prediction: 9th

10. Carlton

Round 24: Carlton v Fremantle

Carlton face arguably the toughest assignment of the three wildcard teams, hosting minor premier Fremantle at Marvel Stadium. Beat the Dockers and the Blues could climb to ninth if the Western Bulldogs lose to Melbourne.

If both Carlton and the Bulldogs win, the Blues remain 10th and travel for their wildcard final. A loss guarantees Carlton finish 10th, with Adelaide the most likely opponent based on our predicted results.

Our prediction: 10th

Our Predicted 2026 AFL Final Ladder

With so many permutations, one upset could dramatically alter the finals bracket. But if Round 24 goes roughly as expected, this is how we predict the top 10 will finish: