2026 Brownlow Medal Winner Odds and Betting Preview - Who will win the Brownlow Medal in 2026?
The 2026 Brownlow Medal is shaping up as one of the most competitive contests in recent memory, with Marcus Bontempelli, Nick Daicos, and Bailey Smith tied as frontrunners. Bets.com.au experts provide up-to-date odds, highlighting emerging contenders like Christian Petracca and Zak Butters. Week-to-week shifts show a tightly packed field, but the main recommendation is to focus betting strategies on the top three. Historical analysis suggests Daicos remains the long-term favorite, but dramatic swings still lie ahead as the season unfolds.
- 2026 Brownlow Medal tipped to be highly competitive.
- Bontempelli, Daicos & Smith tied as Brownlow favourites at $4.00 each
- Petracca and Butters are strong challengers but top 3 remain favorites.
- Injuries and team performances have already influenced betting odds significantly.
Matt Rowell of the Suns poses with the 2025 Brownlow Medal during a media opportunity at Crown Promenade on September 23, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)
The 2026 Brownlow Medal will be one of the most hotly contested awards in recent history.
With almost a third of the season gone, our AFL Experts at Bets.com.au have compiled the best odds for the 2026 Brownlow Award together with some top tips, value plays and predictions.
See our list of Who has Won the Most Brownlow Medal Awards
| 2026 Brownlow Medal Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | $4.00 |
| Nick Daicos | $4.00 |
| Bailey Smith | $4.00 |
| Christian Petracca | $9.00 |
| Zak Butters | $13.00 |
| Isaac Heeney | $15.00 |
| Max Holmes | $26.00 |
| Jai Newcombe | $41.00 |
| Patrick Cripps | $41.00 |
| Rest of the field | +$51.00 |
Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 2026-06-01
Weekly Update
Not a lot has changed here with the top 3 still neck and neck. Christian Petracca $9.00 has shortened into single digits while Max Holmes $26 has entered the race as a smokey. Likely though has lost too many points to Bailey Smith $4.00
Patrick Cripps $41 has also made the top list and is not worth wasting your money on given how poor Carlton have been through the first half of the season.
Historical Analysis
Round 11
We have a three-way tie at the top of the Rankings. Nick Daicos $4, Marcus Bontempelli $4 and Bailey Smith $4 all share the lead with the Cats star midfielder getting a lot of love for their recent form.
Despite the Dockers sitting atop the ladder, Luke Jackson $41 has fallen off the top list but Zak Butters $12 and Christian Petracca $12 continue to rack up points even in losing contests.
Round 10
Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli are once again neck and neck but the results their respective team's keep producing are not helping them in the odds rankings. Multiple players like Bailey Smith, Zak Butters and Christian Petracca are hot on their heels.
Round 9
Marcus Bontempelli $4.00 has once again taken the lead in the odds rankings over Nick Daicos $4.75 while Bailey Smith $8.00 has taken outright third.
Luke Jackson $26 is the new name on the list after a couple good games in a row but is likely having points distributed amongst teammates in Dockers victories.
Round 8
The market is seriously struggling here with Nick Daicos now back out to $3.40 despite his team finishing with a draw against the red hot Hawks. Marcus Bontempelli $4.50 has shortened despite losing to Freo and definitely not picking up the 3 pts in that game.
Christian Petracca $10.50 has been superb in his limited game time this season and seems to be the main contender to the top 2 but Bailey Smith's consistency means he is still there abouts.
Christian Petracca $10.50 has been superb in his limited game time this season and seems to be the main contender to the top 2 but Bailey Smith's consistency means he is still there abouts.
Round 7
Following the completion of Round 7 Nick Daicos $2.60 has once again solidified himself as the odds leader. Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 and Bailey Smith $5.50 continue to fight for 2nd spot with a big gap to the rest of the market.
Kysaiah Pickett $19 is the new entry this week with the Melbourne Demons playing well and winning games.
Kysaiah Pickett $19 is the new entry this week with the Melbourne Demons playing well and winning games.
Round 6
There has been a lot of movement over the past week in the Brownlow odds race. Daicos $3 is still the leader while Marcus Bontempelli $6 has been caught by Bailey Smith $6.
Christian Petracca $13 seems to not have been affected too much by missing a couple of games while Zak Butters $15 avoided a problem at the tribunal, keeping him in the race.
Isaac Heeney $13 and Harry Sheezel $41 have both entered the race based on strong performances by their respective teams.
Christian Petracca $13 seems to not have been affected too much by missing a couple of games while Zak Butters $15 avoided a problem at the tribunal, keeping him in the race.
Isaac Heeney $13 and Harry Sheezel $41 have both entered the race based on strong performances by their respective teams.
Round 5
Even though it looked like a two horse race after the first 3 rounds, things have exploded with Bont starting to recede, Daicos taking back top spot and the contenders making up ground.
Round 4
The Bont $2.50 has moved into outright favourite again after another Bulldogs win over Easter while Zak Butters $17, Caleb Serong $17 and Bailey Smith $17 all improved their odds.
Round 3
This has turned into a 2 horse race with Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos neck and neck at $3.00 which creates opportunity to grab another player should anything happen to the front runners.
Zak Butters $21 is the front runner as he continues to score points in a flailing team while Caleb Serong $26 and Bailey Smith $26 have been extremely consistent in the middle for their respective teams.
Zak Butters $21 is the front runner as he continues to score points in a flailing team while Caleb Serong $26 and Bailey Smith $26 have been extremely consistent in the middle for their respective teams.
Round 2
Marcus Bontempelli $3.25 has taken over as favourite to win the Brownlow after some outstanding performances to start the season. The Bulldogs have been a major surprise packet and given injuries to key players in other teams, he is currently the main contender to Nick Daicos.
Christian Petracca $34 is set to miss at least 3-4 weeks with injury which would likely see him not play enough games to beat the eventual winner.
Round 1
Errol Gulden falls out of the list after an injury will see him miss a chunk of time. Marcus Bontempelli $5 has shortened dramatically and is currently the main contender for Nick Daicos $4.
Christian Petracca $6 and Noah Andersson $17 are popular among bettors given the success of the Suns but are likely to continue stealing points from eachother.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has cooled after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has cooled after a quiet performance in Round 1.
Opening Round
Nick Daicos solidified his stance as Brownlow favourite with a 41 disposal performance in the Pies Opening Round win over St Kilda. Christian Petracca $13 has shortened significantly as has Errol Gulden $15 and Finn Callaghan $26.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $13 is still third favourite but has drifted from the leaders.
Early Predictions
Nick Daicos finished 2nd for the 2nd year in a row (finished 3rd in 2023) and is the favourite to take out the award in 2026. With his haul of 32 votes he became the quickest player to reach 100 votes and will be there again next season.
Bailey Smith polled 29 votes in just 22 matches for the Cats and will once again be a threat to take out the prestigious award. The Cats are one of the most dominant teams of the last decade and don't look like slowing down.
Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell's running mate and Suns club captain polled 25 votes with many believing he was owed a few that went to Rowell throughout the season. Expect umpires to have their eye on the energetic sun in 2026.
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