2026 Brownlow Medal Winner Odds and Betting Preview - Who will win the Brownlow Medal in 2026?

Ryan Tucker

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Fact Checked by Adam Cusworth

Last updated: Mon 29 Jun 2026 12:10

Ryan Tucker 29 Jun 2026

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2026 Brownlow Medal highly competitive.
Nick Daicos remains the Brownlow Medal odds leader.
Market shifts weekly due to injuries and form; Bontempelli, Smith, and Heeney are top challengers.
Experts find value in rising outsiders like Luke Jackson and Jordan Dawson.

Matt Rowell of the Suns poses with the 2025 Brownlow Medal during a media opportunity at Crown Promenade on September 23, 2025 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/Getty Images)

The 2026 Brownlow Medal will be one of the most hotly contested awards in recent history.

The bye rounds are done and we turn for home in an exciting Brownlow race. Our AFL Experts at Bets.com.au continue to find the best odds for the 2026 Brownlow Award together with some top tips, value plays and predictions.

See our list of Who has Won the Most Brownlow Medal Awards

2026 Brownlow Medal Winner	Odds
Nick Daicos	$2.45
Marcus Bontempelli	$5.50
Isaac Heeney	$8.00
Bailey Smith	$9.00
Luke Jackson	$14.00
Jordan Dawson	$16.00
Rest of the field	+$17.00

Odds from Ladbrokes Australia and correct as of 2026-06-29

Weekly Update

Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 is suddenly back on the radar as we see how fickle the market is. Bailey Smith $9 and Isaac Heeney $8 have drifted out with their respective teams hitting a rough patch while Luke Jackson $14 continues to climb as he plays a key role in the continued success of the Freo Dockers.

Historical Analysis

Round 15

Bailey Smith $8 missed a game and has taken a hit in the rankings which Nick Daicos $3.50 is once again outright leader of.

There is still value in Marcus Bontempelli $6 given how clutch he has been for the Bulldogs in recent weeks. Luke Jackson $13 and Jordan Dawson $13 are also great value if something were to happen to Daicos, Isaac Heeney $6 or Smith.

Round 14

Jordan Dawson $13 and Luke Jackson $21 have rocketed back into contention this week while the deadlock at the top of the standings has been broken. Nick Daicos $4.50 is now outright favourite once again with Bailey Smith $5 and Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 right behind.

Isaac Heeney $6 has drawn a lot closer following a number of elite performances for the Swans.

Round 13

Isaac Heeney $9 is the big mover this week with Swans continuing to win. Kysaiah Pickett $34 enters the top 7 again as the Demons continue to defy expectations.

Bailey Smith $4.50 has broken the top 3 deadlock, drifting out just a smidge from the Bont and Daicos $4.

Round 12

Not a lot has changed here with the top 3 still neck and neck. Christian Petracca $9.00 has shortened into single digits while Max Holmes $26 has entered the race as a smokey. Likely though has lost too many points to Bailey Smith $4.00

Patrick Cripps $41 has also made the top list and is not worth wasting your money on given how poor Carlton have been through the first half of the season.

Round 11

We have a three-way tie at the top of the Rankings. Nick Daicos $4, Marcus Bontempelli $4 and Bailey Smith $4 all share the lead with the Cats star midfielder getting a lot of love for their recent form.

Despite the Dockers sitting atop the ladder, Luke Jackson $41 has fallen off the top list but Zak Butters $12 and Christian Petracca $12 continue to rack up points even in losing contests.

Round 10

Nick Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli are once again neck and neck but the results their respective team's keep producing are not helping them in the odds rankings. Multiple players like Bailey Smith, Zak Butters and Christian Petracca are hot on their heels.

Round 9

Marcus Bontempelli $4.00 has once again taken the lead in the odds rankings over Nick Daicos $4.75 while Bailey Smith $8.00 has taken outright third.

Luke Jackson $26 is the new name on the list after a couple good games in a row but is likely having points distributed amongst teammates in Dockers victories.

Round 8

The market is seriously struggling here with Nick Daicos now back out to $3.40 despite his team finishing with a draw against the red hot Hawks. Marcus Bontempelli $4.50 has shortened despite losing to Freo and definitely not picking up the 3 pts in that game.

Christian Petracca $10.50 has been superb in his limited game time this season and seems to be the main contender to the top 2 but Bailey Smith's consistency means he is still there abouts.

Round 7

Following the completion of Round 7 Nick Daicos $2.60 has once again solidified himself as the odds leader. Marcus Bontempelli $5.50 and Bailey Smith $5.50 continue to fight for 2nd spot with a big gap to the rest of the market.

Kysaiah Pickett $19 is the new entry this week with the Melbourne Demons playing well and winning games.

Round 6

There has been a lot of movement over the past week in the Brownlow odds race. Daicos $3 is still the leader while Marcus Bontempelli $6 has been caught by Bailey Smith $6.

Christian Petracca $13 seems to not have been affected too much by missing a couple of games while Zak Butters $15 avoided a problem at the tribunal, keeping him in the race.

Isaac Heeney $13 and Harry Sheezel $41 have both entered the race based on strong performances by their respective teams.

Round 5

Even though it looked like a two horse race after the first 3 rounds, things have exploded with Bont starting to recede, Daicos taking back top spot and the contenders making up ground.

Round 4

The Bont $2.50 has moved into outright favourite again after another Bulldogs win over Easter while Zak Butters $17, Caleb Serong $17 and Bailey Smith $17 all improved their odds.

Round 3

This has turned into a 2 horse race with Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos neck and neck at $3.00 which creates opportunity to grab another player should anything happen to the front runners.

Zak Butters $21 is the front runner as he continues to score points in a flailing team while Caleb Serong $26 and Bailey Smith $26 have been extremely consistent in the middle for their respective teams.

Round 2

Marcus Bontempelli $3.25 has taken over as favourite to win the Brownlow after some outstanding performances to start the season. The Bulldogs have been a major surprise packet and given injuries to key players in other teams, he is currently the main contender to Nick Daicos.

Christian Petracca $34 is set to miss at least 3-4 weeks with injury which would likely see him not play enough games to beat the eventual winner.

Round 1

Errol Gulden falls out of the list after an injury will see him miss a chunk of time. Marcus Bontempelli $5 has shortened dramatically and is currently the main contender for Nick Daicos $4.

Christian Petracca $6 and Noah Andersson $17 are popular among bettors given the success of the Suns but are likely to continue stealing points from eachother.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $21 has cooled after a quiet performance in Round 1.

Opening Round

Nick Daicos solidified his stance as Brownlow favourite with a 41 disposal performance in the Pies Opening Round win over St Kilda. Christian Petracca $13 has shortened significantly as has Errol Gulden $15 and Finn Callaghan $26.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera $13 is still third favourite but has drifted from the leaders.

Early Predictions

Nick Daicos finished 2nd for the 2nd year in a row (finished 3rd in 2023) and is the favourite to take out the award in 2026. With his haul of 32 votes he became the quickest player to reach 100 votes and will be there again next season.

Bailey Smith polled 29 votes in just 22 matches for the Cats and will once again be a threat to take out the prestigious award. The Cats are one of the most dominant teams of the last decade and don't look like slowing down.

Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell's running mate and Suns club captain polled 25 votes with many believing he was owed a few that went to Rowell throughout the season. Expect umpires to have their eye on the energetic sun in 2026.