Brownlow Medal Betting Tips 2026 – Exotic Options, Top 5, Club Leaders & Value

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026 01:33

Adam Cusworth 1 hour ago

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Nick Daicos is overwhelming Brownlow favourite, but short odds limit value.
Best bets: Patrick Cripps (Top 5), Clayton Oliver (Top 20), Lachie Neale (Brisbane's top vote-getter).
First Four combo of Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps & Newcombe offers strong value.

Nick Daicos is a hot favourite to take out the Brownlow, while Patrick Cripps can poll well (Getty Images)

The 2026 Brownlow Medal count looks to be Nick Daicos' to lose, but the short price about the Collingwood superstar means some of the better betting opportunities may come away from the outright winner market.

Brownlow Medal Leading Contenders
Brownlow Medal Top 5 Prediction – Patrick Cripps
Brownlow Medal Top 20 Prediction – Clayton Oliver
Brownlow Medal Most Team Votes Brisbane- Lachie Neale
Brownlow Medal Best Value Bet: First Four – Daicos / Bontempelli / Cripps / Newcombe

Daicos has produced another extraordinary season and is clearly the man to beat, while Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps, Bailey Smith and several emerging midfield stars are among those expected to feature prominently behind him.

Rather than simply taking a short price about the favourite, the exotic markets provide opportunities across Top 5, Top 20, club votes and First Four betting.

Here is our guide to the major contenders, as well as our top four plays for the Brownlow Medal count.

Brownlow Medal Leading Contenders

Nick Daicos is the dominant favourite and it is easy to see why. The Collingwood superstar averaged 34.7 disposals while collecting 147 coaches votes, along with 6.6 inside 50s per game and 26 goals for the season.

Marcus Bontempelli again produced a season worthy of Brownlow consideration, recording 109 coaches votes while kicking 31 goals and averaging almost six clearances and six inside 50s. Patrick Cripps remains one of the competition's most reliable vote-getters, while Bailey Smith's huge disposal numbers ensure he will also attract plenty of attention on the night.

However, history suggests raw disposal numbers are only part of the equation.

Recent Brownlow winners have consistently ranked amongst the competition's elite for contested possessions, clearances and first possessions. That brings players such as Cripps and Jai Newcombe firmly into exotic calculations, while also helping identify value further down the market.

Brownlow Medal Top 5 Prediction – Patrick Cripps

Patrick Cripps looks one of the safer exotic plays on the night and $1.68 appeals for him to finish inside the Top 5.

The Carlton skipper has already established himself as one of the great Brownlow vote-getters of the modern era, winning the medal twice and producing a record-breaking 45-vote count in 2024.

His 2026 season again carries the statistical profile that umpires have traditionally rewarded.

Cripps averaged 14.4 contested possessions and 7.5 clearances per game while also kicking 16 goals. Those numbers put him right amongst the AFL's elite inside midfielders and closely resemble the profile of recent Brownlow winners.

He also produced several enormous individual performances that should be difficult for the umpires to overlook, particularly during the second half of the season.

There may be players with bigger disposal numbers, but Cripps' combination of contested ball, clearances, scoreboard involvement and proven umpire appeal makes him difficult to leave out of the leading handful.

Bet: Patrick Cripps Top 5 – $1.68

Brownlow Medal Top 20 Prediction – Clayton Oliver

Clayton Oliver is one of the more interesting outsiders in the exotic markets and $3.75 for a Top 20 finish looks worth a play.

Oliver may no longer carry the same Brownlow hype as he did during his peak Melbourne years, but his first season at GWS produced exactly the sort of inside numbers that have traditionally attracted votes.

He averaged 30.2 disposals, 14.9 contested possessions and 7.3 clearances from 23 matches. Of the leading midfielders in our statistical comparison, Oliver ranked No.1 for contested possessions per game and sat behind only Matt Rowell and Patrick Cripps for clearances.

Those numbers are hard to ignore.

The potential concern is vote competition in a GWS side containing Finn Callaghan, Toby Greene and several other players capable of producing standout games, while the Giants picked up just 10 wins for the season. However, Oliver's work around stoppages gives him a strong chance of outperforming market expectations.

He doesn't need to return to the enormous Brownlow tallies of his Melbourne peak to cash this bet. Somewhere around the mid-teens could put a Top 20 finish firmly within reach.

At $3.75, his contested and clearance profile makes him an appealing value option.

Bet: Clayton Oliver Top 20 – $3.75

Brownlow Medal Most Team Votes Brisbane- Lachie Neale

We backed Lachie Neale in this market last year and there is enough evidence to go back to the well at $2.60.

Will Ashcroft is understandably prominent after another outstanding season, but the difference between the pair may be smaller than the market suggests.

Neale averaged 29.5 disposals, 13.2 contested possessions and 7.0 clearances while collecting 73 coaches votes. Ashcroft averaged 28.4 disposals, but his 9.5 contested possessions and 5.3 clearances were well below Neale's inside numbers.

That distinction is important when assessing Brownlow votes.

Neale is already a dual Brownlow Medal winner and has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to convert high-possession, high-clearance performances into umpire votes. Ashcroft is one of the competition's emerging stars, but he still has to overcome one of the greatest vote-getters of his generation.

There should be several games where the two take votes from one another, but Neale's contested numbers and proven polling history make $2.60 attractive.

Bet: Lachie Neale Brisbane Most Team Votes – $2.60

Brownlow Medal Best Value Bet: First Four – Daicos / Bontempelli / Cripps / Newcombe

The First Four market looks an ideal way to attack a Brownlow count where Nick Daicos appears to hold a clear advantage over the field.

Nick Daicos is impossible to leave out. His 34.7 disposals per game, 147 coaches votes and 26 goals give him an enormous number of high-end performances capable of producing maximum votes.

Marcus Bontempelli gets the second slot. He amassed 109 coaches votes, kicked 31 goals and averaged 26.6 disposals, 11.5 contested possessions and 5.9 clearances. His ability to dominate games both around stoppages and forward of centre remains a major advantage when votes are being handed out.

Patrick Cripps comes next. His disposal average may be below Daicos and several other leading contenders, but his 14.4 contested possessions and 7.5 clearances per game are much more closely aligned with the statistical profile of recent Brownlow winners. Add his remarkable polling history and he again looks capable of pushing towards 30 votes.

The value inclusion is Jai Newcombe.

Newcombe averaged 25.8 disposals but, more importantly, produced 12.8 contested possessions and 7.4 clearances per game, while collecting 74 coaches votes across the season.

Those clearance and contested-possession numbers put him in elite company and are exactly the type of statistics that have featured prominently in the seasons of recent Brownlow winners.

There will naturally be some competition for Hawthorn votes, but Newcombe's work at the coalface should make him difficult for the umpires to miss when he plays well.

Daicos is the obvious anchor, while Bontempelli and Cripps have long-established Brownlow credentials. Newcombe is the one who can add some real value to the combination.

Brownlow First Four: Nick Daicos / Marcus Bontempelli / Patrick Cripps / Jai Newcombe $201

Verdict

2026 Brownlow Medal

Nick Daicos is the dominant Brownlow favourite after another huge season.
Patrick Cripps appeals at $1.68 to finish inside the Top 5.
Clayton Oliver is value at $3.75 for a Top 20 finish.
Lachie Neale can upset Will Ashcroft for Brisbane's most votes at $2.60.
Daicos, Bontempelli, Cripps and Newcombe make up our First Four prediction.

Patrick Cripps

Top 5

$1.68 - 1 Unit

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