Brownlow Medal Predictions - Three Nick Daicos Value Bets with Picklebet

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: Mon. 21 Sep. 2026 03:38

Bets.com.au Staff 21 Sep. 2026

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Nick Daicos is the $1.01 favourite for the 2026 Brownlow Medal, with projections up to 52 votes
Top value bets at Picklebet include Daicos to poll in 18+ games and 47+ votes
A high-reward longshot is Daicos to reach 50+ votes at $13 odds

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Nick Daicos enters the 2026 Brownlow Medal count as one of the shortest-priced favourites in the award's history, but the huge range of betting markets available through Picklebet provides plenty of alternatives to simply backing the Collingwood superstar to win.

The question heading into Monday night's count appears to be less about whether Daicos wins and more about just how dominant his night could become. AFL.com.au's final Brownlow Predictor has Daicos finishing on 47 votes, 13 clear of Bailey Smith in second, while Champion Data has him on a more conservative 39.6 votes. Another statistical model cited by Fox Sports has his likely range between 40 and 52 votes.

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Daicos' season certainly gives him the opportunity to produce a historic count. He won the AFL Coaches Association Champion Player of the Year award with 147 votes, while AFL.com's Brownlow model predicts him to poll in 19 matches and collect 12 best-on-ground performances.

Nick Daicos Brownlow Medal Markets

Market	Picklebet Odds
Daicos to poll in 18+ games	$1.75
Daicos to win Brownlow by 10+ votes	$1.80
Daicos to poll 45+ votes	$2.20
Daicos to win Brownlow by 12+ votes	$2.75
Daicos to poll 3 votes in 12+ games	$2.75
Daicos to break record and poll 46+ votes	$3.00
Daicos to lead outright after Rounds 6, 10 & 15	$3.75
Daicos to poll 47+ votes	$4.00
Daicos to poll 18+ votes in Rounds 17–24	$4.00
Daicos to poll in 19+ games	$4.00
Daicos to poll 3 votes in 15+ games	$6.00
Daicos to win Brownlow by 15+ votes	$6.00
Daicos to poll 40+ more votes than next Collingwood player	$6.00
Daicos to poll 48+ votes	$7.00
Daicos to poll 49+ votes	$11.00
Daicos to poll 50+ votes	$13.00
Daicos to poll in 20+ games	$13.00

Odds from Picklebet. Correct from 21/9/26.

Nick Daicos Best Brownlow Bets

Nick Daicos to Poll in 18+ Games - $1.75

This shapes as the safest of the Daicos specials and our best bet of the group.

AFL.com's Brownlow Predictor has Daicos polling in 19 different matches, comfortably the highest projection in the competition. Marcus Bontempelli is next on 15, illustrating just how consistently Daicos was among the most influential players on the ground throughout 2026.

Daicos received coaches' votes in all but two of his eligible home-and-away matches, with Round 9 against Geelong and Round 24 against Brisbane the only games in which he failed to register any. While coaches' votes and Brownlow votes are obviously different measures, there is a strong enough correlation to suggest he should regularly feature in the umpires' 3-2-1 voting.

At $1.75, Daicos needs to poll in at least 18 games. Given AFL.com's model has him reaching 19, there is still a small margin for error without the bet falling short.

Best Value: Nick Daicos to Poll 47+ Votes - $4.00

If Daicos' season translates to the Brownlow as strongly as AFL.com's model predicts, the $4.00 available for 47+ votes stands out among the higher-priced markets.

The AFL's official predictor has landed on exactly 47 votes, which would break Patrick Cripps' record of 45 from 2024. Its projection includes 12 three-vote performances and 19 separate polling games.

There is significant uncertainty around the exact total. Champion Data's model is substantially lower at 39.6, but the Wheelo Ratings model cited by Fox Sports places Daicos' 95 per cent projected range between 40 and 52 votes. That makes 47 an aggressive target, but hardly an unrealistic one.

The price is also important. Picklebet offers $2.20 for 45+ and $3.00 for 46+, but moving one further vote to 47+ increases the return to $4.00. For punters expecting Daicos to match the AFL predictor, that jump provides a much more attractive potential return.

Best Longshot: Nick Daicos to Poll 50+ Votes - $13.00

Fifty Brownlow votes would be an extraordinary achievement, but at $13.00 this is the market that appeals most as a genuine longshot.

Daicos needs plenty to fall his way, because even the bullish AFL.com.au model stops at 47. However, the upper end of Wheelo's projected range reaches 52 votes, meaning there is at least a statistical pathway to Daicos becoming the first player to reach 50.

His number of dominant performances is what keeps the possibility alive. Daicos received the maximum 10 coaches' votes in eight matches and led Collingwood's coaches' voting in another two. He also finished inside the top three in coaches' voting in another six games. If the umpires reward those performances particularly strongly, his total could quickly push beyond the mid-40s.

The $13.00 price means this requires only a small stake compared with the shorter alternatives. It is unquestionably a high-risk bet, but for those expecting a record-breaking Daicos count, the potential return is considerably more appealing than taking progressively shorter prices at 45+, 46+ or 47+.