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Jesse's Early 2026 AFL Ladder Predictions - Full Season Forecast

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Thu 05 Feb 2026 14:39

Jesse Mclure 05 Feb 2026

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Who will be crowned AFL Premiers 2026?
Hawthorn tipped to lead due to strong balance.
Geelong's stability secures a top position.
Middle tier involves potential wildcards.

Hawthorn Premiers in 2026? (Photo by James Wiltshire/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Jesse’s 2026 AFL Ladder Predictions: Full Season Outlook

Early AFL ladder predictions are always part forecast, part educated guess. Lists change, coaches move on, and form rarely follows a neat pattern year to year. But once the draft, trade period and rookie additions are done, the shape of the competition starts to become clearer.

Jesse’s 2026 AFL Ladder Predictions: Full Season Outlook
Jesse’s 2026 AFL Ladder Prediction
Why Hawthorn Is Tipped to Finish Minor Premiers
Why Geelong Remains a Regular-Season Machine
Gold Coast and Sydney Lead the Next Tier
Brisbane and Fremantle: Different Paths, Similar Outcomes
The Crowded Middle: Finals, Wildcards and Frustration
Why the Bottom End Still Looks Unsettled

The 2026 ladder looks like one that will again be defined by separation at the top, a logjam through the middle, and several clubs still searching for direction at the bottom. Some teams feel ready to surge, others look set to stall, and a few are clearly bracing for another tough year.

This ladder prediction reflects list balance, trajectory, recent performance and how much upside still appears available.

Jesse’s 2026 AFL Ladder Prediction

Position	Club	Position	Club
1	Hawthorn	10	Collingwood
2	Geelong	11	St Kilda
3	Gold Coast Suns	12	Port Adelaide
4	Sydney Swans	13	Carlton
5	Brisbane Lions	14	North Melbourne
6	Fremantle Dockers	15	Essendon
7	Adelaide Crows	16	Richmond
8	Western Bulldogs	17	Melbourne
9	GWS Giants	18	West Coast Eagles

Why Hawthorn Is Tipped to Finish Minor Premiers

Hawthorn sits at the top of the ladder projection because the pieces already look close to fitting.

The Hawks showed in 2025 that they could beat anyone when their game clicked, even if the home-and-away season didn’t always reflect that. With Will Day returning for a full season, Josh Weddle continuing his rise, and a system built around speed, pressure and ball movement, Hawthorn looks better equipped than most to bank wins consistently.

The midfield may not be the deepest in the competition, but the overall balance across the ground gives them a high weekly floor.

ARTICLE: Josh Weddle to Break Out in 2026

Why Geelong Remains a Regular-Season Machine

Geelong’s ability to win games at GMHBA Stadium continues to anchor their ladder position.

Even with questions around age and ultimate finals ceiling, the Cats remain one of the most stable clubs in the competition. The blend of experienced leaders and younger players like Ollie Dempsey still suggests there’s enough internal improvement to maintain a top-two finish.

They may not need to reinvent anything to finish high again. Check here for a more in depth look at Geelong's Chances for a Top Two Finish.

Gold Coast and Sydney Lead the Next Tier

Gold Coast’s steady rise continues, but expectations are now shifting from promise to delivery.

The Suns look strong enough to sit comfortably inside the top four, even if they’re not yet viewed as the finished product. Young talent continues to mature, and the list profile suggests sustained success rather than a single spike.

Sydney, on the other hand, shapes as a genuine bounce-back team. With Charlie Curnow added to an already strong talent base, the Swans look capable of jumping quickly back into contention if injuries ease and confidence returns.

Brisbane and Fremantle: Different Paths, Similar Outcomes

Brisbane landing fifth reflects belief in their finals credentials more than their home-and-away urgency.

The Lions remain a premiership-calibre side, but finishing slightly lower doesn’t change how dangerous they are when it matters. They’ve shown they don’t need a top-two finish to contend.

Fremantle’s sixth-place prediction reflects consolidation rather than regression. A strong 2025 was built on close wins and momentum. That’s hard to replicate exactly, but the Dockers still look too good to fall away significantly.

The Crowded Middle: Finals, Wildcards and Frustration

Adelaide, the Western Bulldogs, GWS and Collingwood shape as the cluster that will define the new wildcard era.

All four have enough talent to beat anyone on their day, but each carries clear flaws. Adelaide may be coming back to the pack after a sharp rise. The Bulldogs remain strong on talent but vulnerable structurally. GWS feels talented but inconsistent, while Collingwood’s ageing list makes improvement difficult.

Margins here will be thin.

Why the Bottom End Still Looks Unsettled

St Kilda, Port Adelaide and Carlton sit in a difficult no-man’s land, they are not bad enough to bottom out completely, but not yet good enough to seriously contend.

Below them, North Melbourne continues a slow, steady climb, while Essendon and Richmond appear locked into transitional seasons. Melbourne’s fall reflects injury risk and list vulnerability more than lack of quality.

West Coast, despite incremental improvement, still looks a year or two away from escaping the bottom.