Home
AFL

Which Teams Can Win the Premiership in AFL 2026?

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Tue 24 Feb 2026 09:19

Jeremy Darke 24 Feb 2026

Share this article

Who wins the AFL 2026 Premiership?
Brisbane and Geelong lead as proven contenders.
Sydney Swans and Hawthorn show strong performance potential.
Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast need to refine structure.

True Footy AFL Podcast

Which AFL Teams Can Win the Premiership in 2026?

Every AFL preseason claims the competition is wide open. It rarely is.

Which AFL Teams Can Win the Premiership in 2026?
Brisbane Lions
Geelong Cats
Sydney Swans
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
Gold Coast Suns
How Many Teams Can Truly Win the AFL Flag in 2026?

Heading into the 2026 AFL season, there are plenty of finals contenders but far fewer genuine premiership threats. Winning a flag requires more than talent. It demands system reliability, September composure and list balance that holds up under pressure.

Based on preseason analysis and realistic ceiling, these are the AFL teams that can genuinely win the premiership in 2026.

(All Below Prices Are Subject to Change)

Brisbane Lions

Brisbane remain the benchmark.

Their finals performance across multiple seasons has proven that their system stands up when it matters most. The midfield depth is elite, the forward line has variety and the defensive structure rarely breaks down under pressure. Even if they miss the top four, they have already shown they can win deep into September.

There are no obvious structural weaknesses. That alone separates them from most of the competition.

Premiership WinnerBrisbane Lions$4.50

18+. T&Cs apply

Geelong Cats

Geelong are still built to win now.

The list balance remains one of the strongest in the league. Veteran leadership continues to drive standards while the next wave of talent keeps emerging. Max Holmes, Ollie Dempsey and Shannon Neale add energy without disrupting structure.

Unlike some ageing contenders, Geelong have refreshed without losing identity. Their ball movement is controlled, their defence intercept-driven and their forward line adaptable in big moments.

Premiership WinnerGeelong Cats$9.50

18+. T&Cs apply

Sydney Swans

Sydney’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s.

The structural flaws that hurt them previously have been addressed and their late-season form showed how dangerous they can be when settled. Their midfield can match any side for pressure and spread, and their scoring capacity is genuine.

The key question is consistency against elite opposition. If that sharpens, Sydney are firmly in the premiership frame.

Premiership WinnerSydney Swans$10.00

18+. T&Cs apply

Hawthorn

Hawthorn may be the most system-reliable young contender in the AFL.

Their defensive shape is disciplined, their transition game is clean and their ability to control tempo in big games is already established. Even without full availability from certain stars, the structure holds.

The next step is turning resilience into sustained dominance. If internal development continues, Hawthorn are capable of finishing the job.

Premiership WinnerHawthorn Hawks$10.00

18+. T&Cs apply

Fremantle

Fremantle’s list profile suggests their window is open.

The midfield depth is genuine, the backline matches up against elite attacks and the forward group continues to mature. What separates Fremantle from mid-tier teams is their ability to stay competitive in high-pressure games.

The final hurdle is converting competitiveness into September composure. If that shift happens, they are capable of winning multiple finals.

Premiership WinnerFremantle Dockers$12.00

18+. T&Cs apply

Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are the AFL’s volatility test.

On pure midfield dominance and forward firepower, they can beat anyone. When their stoppage game clicks, they overwhelm opposition sides. The concern remains defensive stability and week-to-week reliability.

If defensive structure improves even slightly, their premiership case strengthens immediately. If it does not, they risk falling short of expectations.

Premiership WinnerWestern Bulldogs$17.00

18+. T&Cs apply

Gold Coast Suns

Gold Coast are entering a new phase.

The talent base is undeniable and the list is more balanced than previous seasons. Their midfield can generate scoring chains quickly and the defence has improved structurally.

The question is experience. Deep September runs require composure that young teams often need time to develop. If the Suns handle their first serious finals test, they become genuinely dangerous.

Premiership WinnerGold Coast Suns$8.00

18+. T&Cs apply

How Many Teams Can Truly Win the AFL Flag in 2026?

Strip away preseason optimism and the realistic number sits around five to seven.

Brisbane and Geelong anchor the proven tier. Sydney and Hawthorn sit firmly in contention. Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs have the talent profile. Gold Coast are pushing toward that bracket.

Everyone else needs too many things to go perfectly.

Preseason hype is easy. Sustained September execution is not.