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True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 17 Feb 2026 13:32

Jesse Mclure 17 Feb 2026

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AFL clubs have diverse goals in 2026, ranging from premiership wins to avoiding the wooden spoon.
Success varies by team: Adelaide aims for top six, Geelong targets the premiership.
Expectations reflect each club's current trajectory and future ambitions.

True Footy AFL Podcast (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season

Every AFL season begins with optimism, but not every club is chasing the same outcome.

True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season
Adelaide Crows
Brisbane Lions
Carlton
Collingwood
Essendon
Fremantle
Geelong
Gold Coast Suns
GWS Giants
Hawthorn
Melbourne
North Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Richmond
St Kilda
Sydney Swans
West Coast Eagles
Western Bulldogs

For some, success means lifting the premiership cup. For others, it’s about stabilising a rebuild, avoiding the bottom four, or proving the list is heading in the right direction. The 2026 season shapes as one of the clearest examples of how differently success will be judged across the competition.

Here is every AFL club’s realistic pass mark for 2026.

Click here for Jesse's 2026 AFL Ladder Predictions

Adelaide Crows

Pass mark: Top six finish and win a genuine final

After finishing top and exiting in straight sets last year, Adelaide can’t afford to slide. Making the eight isn’t enough. They need to win a proper final and show that their home-and-away dominance translates into September resilience.

Brisbane Lions

Pass mark: Top four finish

Brisbane’s finals pedigree is already proven. The next step is securing the double chance. A top-four finish is the benchmark for a side that believes its premiership window is still open.

Carlton

Pass mark: Play finals (and ideally win one)

List reshaping and game-style adjustments don’t lower expectation. Carlton must return to September. Missing the eight would make the reset feel like a step sideways rather than forward.

Collingwood

Pass mark: Grand Final appearance (minimum deep September run)

With an ageing core and limited window remaining, Collingwood isn’t building — it’s pushing. A genuine premiership tilt is the standard. Simply scraping into finals won’t satisfy internal belief.

Essendon

Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four

This remains a developing list. Progress matters more than ladder spikes, but finishing in the bottom four again would raise serious questions about direction.

ARTICLE: Why Brad Scott's 2026 season Matters

Fremantle

Pass mark: Preliminary final

The Dockers have matured beyond participation. Given recent growth and list balance, reaching a prelim feels like the natural next progression.

Geelong

Pass mark: Win the premiership

After losing a Grand Final, Geelong’s expectation is clear. Anything short of a flag would feel like a missed opportunity for a list built to win now.

Gold Coast Suns

Pass mark: Top four finish

The Suns have shifted from potential to expectation. Consolidating inside the eight isn’t enough. A top-four finish reflects the next step for a side that believes it belongs among contenders.

ARTICLE: Why the Gold Coast Suns are ready to rise in 2026

GWS Giants

Pass mark: Play finals

Injuries soften the ceiling slightly, but missing September would be disappointing for a list with this much top-end talent.

Hawthorn

Pass mark: Preliminary final

Hawthorn’s trajectory demands progression. After re-establishing itself as a finals side, returning to the final four is the benchmark.

Melbourne

Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four

A reset year under new leadership lowers expectations slightly. Competitiveness and structural clarity matter most, but falling into the bottom four would indicate deeper issues.

North Melbourne

Pass mark: Eight wins or remain in top-10 contention late

North’s rebuild has moved past “early days.” Tangible improvement is required, and eight wins represents measurable growth.

Article: North Melbourne's Rebuild is Starting to Take Shape

Port Adelaide

Pass mark: Top 10 (wildcard contention)

Publicly rejecting the idea of a rebuild sets a clear standard. Port must at least remain in finals conversation. Sliding toward the lower third would contradict that messaging.