True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season
The article outlines the differing goals and benchmarks for each AFL club in the 2026 season. Success varies from winning the premiership, as expected by Geelong, to achieving a respectable performance, such as Adelaide making the top six. While some clubs aim to avoid the bottom four, others strive to confirm their growth and competitiveness through finals participation and wins. Each club's expectation reflects their current standing and future ambitions within the league.
- AFL clubs have diverse goals in 2026, ranging from premiership wins to avoiding the wooden spoon.
- Success varies by team: Adelaide aims for top six, Geelong targets the premiership.
- Expectations reflect each club's current trajectory and future ambitions.
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True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season
Every AFL season begins with optimism, but not every club is chasing the same outcome.
- True Footy's Pass Mark for Every AFL Club in the 2026 Season
- Adelaide Crows
- Brisbane Lions
- Carlton
- Collingwood
- Essendon
- Fremantle
- Geelong
- Gold Coast Suns
- GWS Giants
- Hawthorn
- Melbourne
- North Melbourne
- Port Adelaide
- Richmond
- St Kilda
- Sydney Swans
- West Coast Eagles
- Western Bulldogs
For some, success means lifting the premiership cup. For others, it’s about stabilising a rebuild, avoiding the bottom four, or proving the list is heading in the right direction. The 2026 season shapes as one of the clearest examples of how differently success will be judged across the competition.
Here is every AFL club’s realistic pass mark for 2026.
Adelaide Crows
Pass mark: Top six finish and win a genuine final
After finishing top and exiting in straight sets last year, Adelaide can’t afford to slide. Making the eight isn’t enough. They need to win a proper final and show that their home-and-away dominance translates into September resilience.
Brisbane Lions
Pass mark: Top four finish
Brisbane’s finals pedigree is already proven. The next step is securing the double chance. A top-four finish is the benchmark for a side that believes its premiership window is still open.
Carlton
Pass mark: Play finals (and ideally win one)
List reshaping and game-style adjustments don’t lower expectation. Carlton must return to September. Missing the eight would make the reset feel like a step sideways rather than forward.
Collingwood
Pass mark: Grand Final appearance (minimum deep September run)
With an ageing core and limited window remaining, Collingwood isn’t building — it’s pushing. A genuine premiership tilt is the standard. Simply scraping into finals won’t satisfy internal belief.
Essendon
Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four
This remains a developing list. Progress matters more than ladder spikes, but finishing in the bottom four again would raise serious questions about direction.
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Fremantle
Pass mark: Preliminary final
The Dockers have matured beyond participation. Given recent growth and list balance, reaching a prelim feels like the natural next progression.
Geelong
Pass mark: Win the premiership
After losing a Grand Final, Geelong’s expectation is clear. Anything short of a flag would feel like a missed opportunity for a list built to win now.
Gold Coast Suns
Pass mark: Top four finish
The Suns have shifted from potential to expectation. Consolidating inside the eight isn’t enough. A top-four finish reflects the next step for a side that believes it belongs among contenders.
GWS Giants
Pass mark: Play finals
Injuries soften the ceiling slightly, but missing September would be disappointing for a list with this much top-end talent.
Hawthorn
Pass mark: Preliminary final
Hawthorn’s trajectory demands progression. After re-establishing itself as a finals side, returning to the final four is the benchmark.
Melbourne
Pass mark: Avoid the bottom four
A reset year under new leadership lowers expectations slightly. Competitiveness and structural clarity matter most, but falling into the bottom four would indicate deeper issues.
North Melbourne
Pass mark: Eight wins or remain in top-10 contention late
North’s rebuild has moved past “early days.” Tangible improvement is required, and eight wins represents measurable growth.
Port Adelaide
Pass mark: Top 10 (wildcard contention)
Publicly rejecting the idea of a rebuild sets a clear standard. Port must at least remain in finals conversation. Sliding toward the lower third would contradict that messaging.
Richmond
Pass mark: Avoid the wooden spoon
Youth development remains the priority, but finishing last again would stall belief in the rebuild.
St Kilda
Pass mark: Top 10 finish
Significant list movement and investment demand visible progress. The Saints must be around the eight deep into the season.
Sydney Swans
Pass mark: Grand Final appearance (minimum prelim)
With a strong list and premiership ambition, Sydney is in “go now” mode. A deep September run is expected.
West Coast Eagles
Pass mark: Avoid the wooden spoon
Another last-place finish would be deeply damaging. Competitiveness must translate into at least incremental ladder progress.
Western Bulldogs
Pass mark: Preliminary final
Given the talent profile and coaching tenure, the Bulldogs must return to genuine contention. Missing finals again would intensify scrutiny.
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