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Which AFL Teams Are Overrated and Underrated Heading Into Opening Round 2026?

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 03 Mar 2026 14:41

Jesse Mclure 03 Mar 2026

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Western Bulldogs, Carlton, and GWS Giants might be overrated this next season.
Fremantle, Adelaide, and North Melbourne hold potential to exceed expectations.
Preseason projections may falter as the reality of opening rounds unfolds.

True Footy AFL Podcast (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Which AFL Teams Are Overrated and Underrated Heading Into Opening Round 2026?

Every AFL preseason inflates someone.

Which AFL Teams Are Overrated and Underrated Heading Into Opening Round 2026?
Overrated: Western Bulldogs
Overrated: Carlton
Overrated: GWS Giants
Underrated: Fremantle
Underrated: Adelaide
Underrated: North Melbourne
Perception vs Reality in 2026

Hype builds quickly in February. A strong practice match becomes a top-four projection. A quiet summer becomes a slide down the ladder. By Opening Round, perception often moves faster than reality.

Heading into the 2026 AFL season, several clubs are carrying expectations that may not match their actual position. Some are being talked up beyond their structural security. Others are flying under the radar despite clear upward indicators.

Here are the AFL teams that look overrated and underrated heading into Opening Round.

ARTICLE: THE 10 BIGGEST QUESTIONS HEADING INTO OPENING ROUND 2026

Overrated: Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are being spoken about as a genuine premiership threat.

On talent alone, that is understandable. Marcus Bontempelli remains elite. Tim English controls stoppage. Sam Darcy is becoming a near impossible matchup inside 50.

But the same structural question remains. Defensive fragility has not suddenly disappeared. When midfield pressure dips, opposition sides can move the ball quickly and score against them.

The Bulldogs missed finals last season in a tight race. That matters. Until defensive stability becomes consistent rather than occasional, they remain volatile.

Premiership upside is real. So is a finish outside the eight.

Overrated: Carlton

Carlton are again being projected as a top-six side.

There is logic behind it. The midfield has quality. The list reshuffle has been framed as balance rather than regression. A healthy run could elevate them quickly.

The concern is consistency. The Blues have not yet proven they can sustain high-level performance across an entire season without dramatic swings.

Opening Round expectations feel aggressive. Carlton may improve, but calling them a lock for top six ignores recent instability.

Overrated: GWS Giants

GWS still carry the aura of a finals side.

The reality is less secure. Injuries and midfield balance concerns create genuine regression risk. Their best football is strong enough to beat anyone, but depth vulnerabilities make them difficult to trust across 23 rounds.

They may absolutely play finals. They are not the safe top-eight lock some preseason ladders suggest.

Underrated: Fremantle

Fremantle are strangely quiet in preseason discussions.

Their midfield depth stacks up against the best. Their defensive structure is stable. Their ceiling is preliminary final level.

Because they are not loud or dramatic, they are being placed just outside the contender bracket. That feels conservative.

If the Dockers handle key moments better than last year, they are firmly in the premiership conversation.

Underrated: Adelaide

Adelaide’s straight-sets exit last season has cooled hype.

It should not erase the strength of their home-and-away performance. They were elite across large stretches and have not lost their structural identity.

The challenge is finals composure, not regular-season capacity. As a result, they are being pushed into the middle tier when their ceiling remains higher than that.

Underrated: North Melbourne

North are still being viewed as a bottom-four certainty.

That feels outdated.

George Wardlaw and Luke Davies-Uniacke give them midfield competitiveness. The next step is translating that into consistent wins, but the gap between North and the middle tier is not as wide as it once was.

Eight wins is realistic. That may not sound dramatic, but it moves them clear of automatic spoon conversation.

Perception vs Reality in 2026

Opening Round is built on projection.

The Bulldogs have the talent to justify hype but remain structurally risky. Carlton carry optimism that may be slightly ahead of evidence. GWS feel safer than they actually are.

Meanwhile, Fremantle and Adelaide are strong enough to be considered genuine threats, yet sit just outside headline conversations. North may not contend, but they are closer to respectability than many believe.

Preseason narratives rarely survive intact beyond Round 6.

The question is which ones collapse first.