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Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to make first AO semi-final
Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur face off in the Australian Open quarter-finals, with Alcaraz seeking his first title in Australia. Alcaraz is in excellent form, not dropping a set so far in the tournament, and has a dominant 5-0 head-to-head record against De Minaur. While De Minaur is consistent, reaching multiple quarter-finals, he still struggles at the Grand Slam level, especially against top-ranked players. Predictions favor Alcaraz to win the match, potentially with over 33.5 total games.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur predictions for Tuesday's Australian Open quarter-final
- De Minaur has never made it beyond a Grand Slam quarter-final (0-5)
- Alcaraz has won all five previous meetings between the pair
- Alcaraz frequently challenged by top 10 players at the slams, but consistently prevails
- The match is scheduled to start around 9.00pm AEDT on Tuesday January 27
Expired
Alex de Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz (Photo by Getty Images)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alex de Minaur is once again looking to make a Grand Slam semi-final for the first time when he comes up against World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz in a blockbuster Australian Open showdown on Tuesday night.
De Minaur has established himself inside the top 10 over the last couple of years, but taking his game to that next level and challenging the very best for major titles is now the challenge. The Aussie is remarkably consistent and is now the first Australian man to make multiple quarter-finals at the Australian Open since the tournament moved to Melbourne Park in 1988. However, de Minaur is 0-5 in Grand Slam quarter-finals and 0-6 vs top four opponents at the majors. There’s no doubt de Minaur lacks the firepower, one explosive weapon and the ability to earn cheap points on serve when he reaches this stage of a major.
Which obviously makes this clash against the World No. 1 problematic once again. Demon has a better chance against Alcaraz than Jannik Sinner due to the Spaniard’s tendency to go walkabout in matches more, but the top seed is improving in that regard. Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set this tournament and is looking good for a maiden Australian Open title having never previously going beyond this stage. I do think de Minaur is in career-best form right now and can push Alcaraz at various stages, but he just doesn’t have the firepower to win this one outright. Alcaraz to win with Over 33.5 total games is the main play here.
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Stats & Trends
- De Minaur is 0-5 in Grand Slam quarter-finals
- De Minaur is 0-6 vs top four players in Grand Slam matches
- De Minaur is 1-7 vs No. 1 ranked players (lone win vs Djokovic at United Cup in 2024)
- Alcaraz is 10-2 in his last 12 Grand Slam quarter-finals
- Alcaraz has won 11 of his last 13 matches vs top 10 players at Grand Slams
- Alcaraz has seen Over 33.5 games in eight of his last nine completed matches vs top 10 players at Grand Slams
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Head To Head
Alcaraz leads 5-0, including prevailing 7-6 6-2 in their most-recent clash at the ATP Finals late last year.
| Year / Event | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 – Nitto ATP Finals (Group Stage) | Carlos Alcaraz | 7–6(5), 6–2 |
| 2025 – Barcelona Open (Quarter-final) | Carlos Alcaraz | 7–5, 6–3 |
| 2025 – Rotterdam Open (Final) | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–4, 3–6, 6–2 |
| 2023 – Queen’s Club (Final) | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–4, 6–4 |
| 2022 – Barcelona Open (Semi-final) | Carlos Alcaraz | 6–7(4), 7–6(4), 6–4 |
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 4-0
- Australian Open Record: 15-4
- Grand Slam Record: 88-13
- Current Ranking: No. 1
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1
Road to Australian Open quarter-finals
| Round | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Round | Adam Walton | 6–3, 7–6(2), 6–2 |
| 2nd Round | Yannick Hanfmann | 7–6(4), 6–3, 6–2 |
| 3rd Round | Corentin Moutet | 6–2, 6–4, 6–1 |
| 4th Round | Tommy Paul | 7–6(6), 6–4, 7–5 |
It’s been a smooth ride into the Australian Open quarter-finals for Alcaraz, who is aiming to secure a staggering seventh major title and first down under.
Alcaraz picked up the Roland Garros and US Open titles last year, conquering his great rival Jannik Sinner in both - and the pair remain on course to clash again in a Grand Slam final in Melbourne.
The Spaniard was solid without being spectacular in his opening two rounds against Adam Walton and Yannick Hanfmann before raising his level for a straight sets demolition of Corentin Moutet in the third round.
Tasked with a dangerous R16 encounter against the resurgent Tommy Paul, Alcaraz produced his best performance of the tournament, firing 35 winners in a 7-6 6-4 7-5 victory.
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 6-2
- Australian Open Record: 22-8
- Grand Slam Record: 65-32
- Current Ranking: No. 6
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6
Road to Australian Open quarter-finals
| Round | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Round | Mackenzie McDonald | 6–2, 6–2, 6–3 |
| 2nd Round | Hamad Medjedovic | 6–7(5), 6–2, 6–2, 6–1 |
| 3rd Round | Frances Tiafoe | 6–3, 6–4, 7–5 |
| 4th Round | Alexander Bublik | 6–4, 6–1, 6–1 |
De Minaur brings a six-match winning streak into this clash after dropping his opening contest of the season to Casper Ruud at the United Cup.
The Aussie responded brilliantly from that disappointment, toppling Hubert Hurkacz and Jakub Mensik to restore some confidence before the Australian Open.
Once again, de Minaur is the last Australian standing, dropping just one set in a series of extremely impressive performances on his way to a second straight quarter-final at Melbourne Park.
De Minaur crushed Mackenzie Mcdonald in the opening round before weathering the storm of Hamad Medjedovic. The 26-year-old then produced a clean display to move past Frances Tiafoe in straight sets before absolutely obliterating the in-form Alexander Bublik in the quarter-finals.
It was just the third time that de Minaur had beaten a top 10 player at a major, with the Aussie easing past the 10th seed 6-4 6-1 6-1.
Alcaraz vs De Minaur Live Stream
Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur live Australian Open tennis.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > Australian Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
De Minaur is in career-best form and has pushed Alcaraz at times during their H2H - however, winning a big match in a major against a top opponent will prove a step too far once again. Alcaraz to prevail with Over 33.5 games.
Alcaraz & Over 33.5
H2H/Total Games
$2.35 - 1 Unit
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Alcaraz 3-1
Set Betting
$3.30 - 1 Unit
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