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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Finals Tips - Bunnies backed in elimination shootout

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Thu. 10 Sep. 2026 11:17

Jeremy Darke 10 Sep. 2026

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Both teams averaging over 30 points per game, but defences are struggling.
Over 47.5 points is the top betting tip, as recent clashes have been high-scoring.
Rabbitohs tipped to start strong; David Fifita favoured as Anytime Tryscorer.
Kick-off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) on Friday, 11th September at Allianz Stadium, Sydney.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Finals Tips

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights, Finals Week 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

South Sydney enter the finals with their attack firing and Latrell Mitchell back making an immediate impact, but Newcastle have enough strike of their own to turn Friday night's elimination final into a high-scoring shootout.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights, Finals Week 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Key Stats & Trends
Head to Head
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27 FAQs

The Rabbitohs have won four of their last five matches and finished the regular season averaging 33.6 points across that stretch. Cody Walker was outstanding in the 50-20 demolition of the Roosters, scoring once and having a hand in four more tries, while Mitchell's return adds another elite attacking option outside him.

Newcastle's attack is also travelling well enough to contribute. The Knights have averaged 30.4 points across their last five games, but their defence has become a major problem. They conceded at least 24 points in each of their final four matches at an average of 35 points, despite only one of those opponents finishing inside the top eight.

That puts Over 47.5 points at the top of the betting card. Five of Newcastle's last six games have gone Over the total, while three of the last four meetings between these clubs have also gone Over. Their two meetings this season finished 42-38 and 26-24, producing 80 and 50 total points respectively.

Rather than laying a sizeable full-game handicap with Souths, South Sydney -3.5 first half looks the better angle. The Rabbitohs have started quickly during their recent winning run and led at half-time by at least 10 points in each of their last four victories, with an average half-time advantage of 19 points.

David Fifita Anytime Tryscorer is preferred over the obvious Alex Johnston selection. Johnston has an extraordinary 30 tries this season and has scored 17 in 11 games against Newcastle, but Fifita has begun to find the line consistently himself, scoring three tries in his last four matches. His power on the edge could be particularly difficult for a Newcastle pack that has been dealing with injuries and suspensions late in the year.

Key Stats & Trends

South Sydney have won four of their last five matches.
The Rabbitohs have averaged 33.6 points across their last five games.
Newcastle have averaged 30.4 points across their last five.
The Knights have conceded an average of 35 points across their last four matches.
Five of Newcastle's last six matches have gone Over the game total.
Three of the last four Rabbitohs-Knights meetings have gone Over.

Head to Head

South Sydney and Newcastle split their two regular-season meetings in 2026, and both were decided by four points or fewer.

Newcastle won a Round 9 thriller 42-38 before South Sydney responded with a 26-24 victory in Round 19.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis

South Sydney have hit the finals in arguably their best attacking form of the season.

The Rabbitohs have won four of their last five, scoring 50 against the Roosters and 42 against the Titans in their final two regular-season matches. Their 33.6-point average across the last five highlights just how dangerous the attack has become.

Walker has rediscovered some of his best football at exactly the right time, while Mitchell's return gives Souths another game-breaker on the left edge. Mitchell has played just 11 matches this season but has still produced 12 tries, nine try assists, 52 tackle breaks and 11 linebreaks.

David Fifita is also becoming increasingly influential, while Alex Johnston enters the finals after becoming just the fifth player in premiership history to score 30 tries in a season.

The concern remains defence. South Sydney have conceded an average of 26.9 points across their last 10 matches and have held an opponent below 20 only once during that stretch.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Newcastle's season has gone in the opposite direction.

After sitting fourth with eight rounds remaining, the Knights won only three of their last eight games and lost their final two matches against Manly and the Warriors while conceding 44 and 46 points.

Their attack hasn't been the problem. Newcastle have averaged 30.4 points across their last five matches and still boast elite attacking weapons in Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best, Dominic Young and Fletcher Sharpe.

The defence is much harder to trust. Newcastle conceded at least 24 points in each of their final four games, averaging 35 points against across that stretch.

They also won only half of their away matches during the regular season and now travel to Allianz Stadium against a South Sydney side that has built considerable momentum.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated NRL Finals Week 1 Team List Article.

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27 FAQs

How to livestream Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27?
You can livestream the Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside Australia, the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27?
To buy tickets to the Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 27 game, check the NRL website or the official Canterbury Bulldogs site.

Verdict

South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights

Both attacks are producing points while neither defence has looked trustworthy, making Over 47.5 points the strongest selection. South Sydney's fast starts make Rabbitohs -3.5 first half appealing, while David Fifita Anytime Tryscorer gets the nod after crossing three times in his last four games.