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Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Finals Tips & Prediction - Points galore in sudden-death shootout

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026 02:28

Andrew Hendrie 3 hours ago

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Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys predictions for Saturday's elimination final
Points expected, with 80 being scored in this season's previous meeting
Sharks can score 28+ points with Trindall back; Ronaldo & Luki tipped in tryscorer props
The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.50pm AEST on Saturday September 12

Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys NRL Finals Tips & Prediction

It's hard to trust either of these teams heading into the finals, which brings total points into play as the most appealing betting angle as the Sharks and Cowboys square off in Saturday night's elimination final at Allianz Stadium.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks NRL Finals Tips & Prediction
Sharks vs Cowboys Stats & Trends
Sharks vs Cowboys Head To Head
Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis
Sharks vs Cowboys Team News

Neither of these sides bring any momentum or form into this sudden-death finals clash. The Sharks have lost four of their last five and had nothing in attack without Braydon Trindall, who thankfully for Cronulla fans, is back from injury here.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have a 3-4 record in their last seven games, which includes leaking 80 points to the Roosters and 50 points to the Raiders last week. Defence remains optional for the Cowboys, who have leaked 652 points at an average of 27.1 per game.

That sort of shambolic defence isn't going to win you footy games in September. But I also don't trust the Cronulla flat-track bullies, who have only won four of 15 finals games since winning the premiership in 2016.

So Over 47.5 total points is the main play - these two sides combined for 62 points in a finals game back in 2022, while a whopping 80 points were scored when they met earlier this season in Round 8 - and another open game at Allianz could be in prospect here.

With Trindall back, the Sharks should be more free-flowing in attack, so I also like Craig Fitzgibbon's side to cover their team total of 27.5, which is essentially the average of what the Cowboys are leaking each game this season. I wouldn't be surprised if Cronulla scored 30 and lost either.

Ronaldo Mulitalo has a fantastic tryscoring record against North Queensland, while Heilum Luki offers good value with a solid strike-rate in the second-row this season. Take them both to score anytime.

Sharks vs Cowboys Stats & Trends

Sharks & Cowboys saw 80 points when they played in R8 earlier this season
Cowboys concede an average of 27.1 points per game this season
Cowboys have conceded 50, 32, 82, 36, 38 & 40 points in their last six defeats
Sharks have scored the third-most points this season for an average of 28 per game
Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored 1+ try in his last seven appearances vs Cowboys
Heilum Luki has scored 11 tries from 24 games this season, including four in his last six & in R8 vs Sharks

Sharks vs Cowboys Head To Head

Cronulla have been dominant in this matchup, winning 14 of the last 17 meetings - but it was the Cowboys who won a shootout earlier this year in Townsville, while North Queensland have also won two of the last three finals matches between the sides in Sydney.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2026	North Qld	46–34	QLD C. Bank
2025	Cronulla	32–12	Sharks
2025	Cronulla	36–12	QLD C. Bank
2024	Cronulla	26–18	Allianz
2024	North Qld	30–22	QLD C. Bank

Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis

Cronulla won nine of their 10 games from Round 11 to Round 22 and appeared to be carrying strong momentum into the finals.

However, that form has fallen off a cliff over the last month or so, costing the Sharks a top four spot and now they're in real danger of crashing out of the finals at the first time of asking.

It was such a huge opportunity for Cronulla, with their final five games coming against sides that ultimately missed out on the finals. But they couldn't seize their advantage, losing to the likes of the Dragons, Raiders, Eels and Storm.

With 11 defeats from their last 15 finals games, the Sharks are under huge pressure to avoid another swift September exit.

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis

It's been another wildly inconsistent season for the Cowboys, but this time they've fallen on the right side of the eight and will get the chance to see if they can make an impact in the finals.

North Queensland have proven they can beat anyone in the NRL, most notably toppling Penrith in Round 17.

But the problem is they can also lose to anyone and their defence is simply not up to scratch - conceding 50 points to the Raiders at home last week is another testament to that.

But hey, if you score more points than your opponent you win - that's what the Cowboys did against the Sharks in Round 8 for a 46-34 victory and they will be looking to turn this game into another shooutout.

Sharks vs Cowboys Team News

Massive in for the Sharks as Braydon Trindall returns from injury.

Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey, KL Iro and Teig Wilton are also back after being rested last week.

Griffin Neame (toe), back-rower Jeremiah Nanai (knee) and winger Zac Laybutt (concussion) are all back for the Cowboys, while Reuben Cotter avoided suspension and is free to start in the forwards.

Sharks	Position	Cowboys
William Kennedy	1	Scott Drinkwater
Sione Katoa	2	Braidon Burns
Riley Jones	3	Jaxon Purdue
KL Iro	4	Tom Chester
Ronaldo Mulitalo	5	Zac Laybutt
Braydon Trindall	6	Jake Clifford
Nicho Hynes	7	Tom Dearden
Addin Fonua-Blake	8	Griffin Neame
Blayke Brailey	9	Reed Mahoney
Jesse Colquhoun	10	Jason Taumalolo
Briton Nikora	11	Heilum Luki
Teig Wilton	12	Jeremiah Nanai
Cameron McInnes	13	Reuben Cotter
Siosifa Talakai	14	Soni Luke
Billy Burns	15	John Bateman
Oregon Kaufusi	16	Thomas Mikaele
Thomas Hazelton	17	Coen Hess
Hohepa Puru	18	Kaiden Lahrs
Toby Rudolf	19	Ethan King

Verdict

Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Over 47.5 points and the Sharks to score 28+ are the best bets for this sudden-death final, with Ronaldo & Luki backed for tries.

Over 47.5

Total Points

$1.90 - 3 Units

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Sharks Over 27.5

Total Team Points

$1.80 - 2 Units

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Ronaldo Mulitalo

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Heilum Luki

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