NRL Finals Week 1 Margin Tips 2026: Best 1-12 and 13+ Predictions
The 2026 NRL Finals kick off with four compelling matchups, including two sudden-death showdowns and a highly anticipated clash between Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters. Margin predictions highlight two likely large-margin wins—South Sydney Rabbitohs and Penrith Panthers tipped to triumph by 13+—while the Dolphins and Cowboys are backed for tight 1-12 victories. Key factors influencing tips include significant injuries, recent form, and September pressure. The data-driven approach suggests a mix of close contests and a couple of blowouts to start the finals series.
- Rabbitohs & Panthers tipped for 13+ point wins.
- Dolphins & Cowboys predicted to win by 1-12 points.
- Injuries and form are key factors in margin predictions.
2026 NRL Week 1 Finals Margin Predictions.
NRL Finals Week 1 Margin Tips: Best 1-12 and 13+ Predictions
The 2026 NRL Finals begin with four very different matchups, including two sudden-death elimination finals and a blockbuster between minor premiers Penrith and the Sydney Roosters.
- NRL Finals Week 1 Margin Tips: Best 1-12 and 13+ Predictions
- South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
- New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
- Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
- Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Our model expects plenty of competitive football across Week 1, but injuries, recent form and the pressure of September have pushed us towards two bigger-margin selections and two 1-12 plays.
Here are our 1-12 or 13+ margin predictions for every game of Week 1 of the 2026 NRL Finals.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Tip: South Sydney Rabbitohs 13+
South Sydney Rabbitohs13+ Winning MarginBET HERE
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Our model expects this to be much closer, projecting South Sydney by only 1.9 points and a total around 48, but Newcastle's forward-pack problems make the Rabbitohs 13+ worth taking on. Jacob Saifiti is suspended for the finals and Trey Mooney is out with a fractured scapula, while Francis Manuleleua is also racing to be fit after dislocating his elbow.
That is a lot of damage through the middle for an elimination final. Newcastle still have enough strike through Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dom Young to contribute points, but Souths should increasingly take control through the middle. Expect an entertaining start before the Rabbitohs kick away late.
New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
Tip: Dolphins 1-12
Dolphins1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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There has been almost nothing between these teams. Their two meetings this season were both decided by two points, continuing a remarkable run of close games between the clubs.
Our model has the Warriors winning 26.0-22.1, but that actually strengthens the case for taking the Dolphins in the 1-12 market rather than expecting a blowout either way. New Zealand deserve favouritism at Go Media Stadium, but their defence has looked vulnerable enough recently for Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa and a dangerous Dolphins attack to find openings. The pressure is firmly on the Warriors at home, and the Dolphins can pinch another thriller.
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
Tip: North Queensland Cowboys 1-12
North Queensland Cowboys1-12 Winning MarginBET HERE
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Cronulla have dominated this matchup historically and our model still makes the Sharks 6.7-point favourites, projecting a 27.4-20.7 result. The problem is trusting Cronulla to reproduce that advantage when the pressure rises.
The Sharks have lost three of their past four and their late-season performances have done little to inspire confidence heading into another elimination final. North Queensland have already shown they can beat Cronulla this season, and the Cowboys have enough attacking quality to punish another nervous Sharks performance. In a sudden-death game that could tighten considerably late, the Cowboys 1-12 is the upset play.
Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters
Tip: Penrith Panthers 13+
Penrith Panthers13+ Winning MarginBET HERE
The Neds.com.au code is BLACKBOOK. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. CHANCES ARE YOU'RE ABOUT TO LOSE. Set a deposit limit.
This is another deliberate move against our model, which has Penrith winning by only 4.8 points. However, it also projects 48 total points, and that higher-scoring scenario could become ugly for the Roosters if they can't stay with Penrith early.
Sam Walker remains sidelined after ankle surgery, taking a major attacking weapon out of the Roosters' spine. Penrith, meanwhile, enter the finals after their backline was able to build confidence against the Tigers. The Panthers won't need to force anything early. Nathan Cleary can control territory, build pressure and make Sydney defend repeatedly. If the Roosters don't establish an early lead, Penrith's methodical approach can eventually break them open and turn this into a 13+ result.
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