Australian Guineas 2026 Betting Tips - Can Observer Land a Second Group 1?

Alex Marsh

Editor

Last updated: Wed 25 Feb 2026 10:29

Alex Marsh 25 Feb 2026

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Observer is the $2.35 favourite for the 2026 Australian Guineas
Express Class, an $81 outsider, impressed in the CS Hayes Stakes
Race shape and positioning are crucial for success in this showcase of emerging talent

Expired

Observer leads the 2026 Australian Guineas market. (Getty)

The Australian Guineas headlines Saturday’s Flemington meeting, with the Group 1 mile for three-year-olds shaping as a pivotal clash of emerging talent.

2026 Australian Guineas Tips
2026 Australian Guineas - Field & Odds

A deep field has assembled for the set weights feature, highlighted by Victoria Derby winner Observer and consistent performer Sixties, who bring contrasting profiles into the contest.

Observer is a $2.35 favourite with Dabble to win the 2026 Australian Guineas.

2026 Australian Guineas Tips

2026 Australian Guineas Best Bet - Observer

Observer may well be more talented than Sixties irrespective of the draw and map, and the Godolphin colt has come out on top against that main rival at the barriers, looking to land on the speed comfortably, whereas Sixties has a wide alley to overcome.

The Victoria Derby winner is arguably more effective in the 1600m to 2000m range despite his 2500m success, and while it was a comfortable return victory in the Autumn Stakes, the lead-up suggested he would improve off whatever he produced fresh.

That first-up performance was solid rather than explosive, and he now faces a sharper contest at set weights.

Observer also appears to hold a tactical edge over Planet Red, the only other runner at a single-figure quote.

Their prior clashes suggest there is little between the pair, making race shape and positioning crucial, and the Godolphin colt profiles to get the right run.

2026 Australian Guineas Value Bet - Express Class

How strong is the CS Hayes Stakes reference?

Sixties covered ground in the traditional Australian Guineas lead-up and still had something in hand on a field that appeared to lack depth.

While he is a massive price here, Express Class went as well as anything behind Sixties in that 1400m feature, making ground with the race’s fastest last 800m, 600m and 400m splits after settling in an awkward rearward position.

He showed a sharp turn-of-foot in his debut win last winter before a Group 3 placing, highlighting genuine talent.

He may ultimately prove most effective as a sprinter, leaving 1600m as a query, but with a better draw and a cosy run, Express Class has the finish to play a role and can easily fill a top-three or top-four spot.

2026 Australian Guineas - Field & Odds

No.	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Barrier	Weight	Odds
1	Observer	Ciaron Maher	Ethan Brown	6	57kg	$2.35
2	Planet Red	Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)	Jamie Melham	9	57kg	$5.50
3	West Of Swindon	Ciaron Maher	Ben Allen	3	57kg	$19
4	Sixties	Chris Waller	Damian Lane	10	57kg	$2.75
5	Bingi	Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	Luke Cartwright (a)	2	57kg	$101
6	Officiate	Chris Waller	Ben Melham	4	57kg	$51
7	Romantic Encounter (NZ)	Ben, Will & JD Hayes	Daniel Stackhouse	5	57kg	$31
8	Victorious Spirit	Peter G Moody & Katherine Coleman	Zac Spain	7	57kg	$21
9	Onavuitton	Simon Zahra	Thomas Stockdale	8	57kg	$26
10	Express Class	Gerard Moloney	Patrick Moloney	1	57kg	$81

Odds provided by Dabble & correct on 25/02/2026.

Verdict

Australian Guineas

Our tips for the 2026 Australian Guineas are:

Observer

To Win

$2.35 - 9 Units

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Express Class

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