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Australian Guineas 2026 Betting Tips - Can Observer Land a Second Group 1?

alex-marsh
Editor
Last updated: Wed 25 Feb 2026 10:29

The 2026 Australian Guineas at Flemington presents an exciting clash with Observer, the Victoria Derby winner, expected to dominate. The Godolphin colt has emerged as the favorite, demonstrating tactical advantages over rivals like Planet Red and Sixties. While Express Class offers value after a strong performance in the CS Hayes Stakes, Observer is tipped as the best bet to win, showing potential beyond his Derby success. The strategic race shape and positioning could be decisive in this anticipated contest, highlighting a promising showcase of three-year-old talent.

Alex Marsh 25 Feb 2026
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  • Observer is the $2.35 favourite for the 2026 Australian Guineas
  • Express Class, an $81 outsider, impressed in the CS Hayes Stakes
  • Race shape and positioning are crucial for success in this showcase of emerging talent
Expired
Observer leads the 2026 Australian Guineas market. (Getty)

The Australian Guineas headlines Saturday’s Flemington meeting, with the Group 1 mile for three-year-olds shaping as a pivotal clash of emerging talent.

A deep field has assembled for the set weights feature, highlighted by Victoria Derby winner Observer and consistent performer Sixties, who bring contrasting profiles into the contest.

Observer is a $2.35 favourite with Dabble to win the 2026 Australian Guineas.

2026 Australian Guineas Tips


2026 Australian Guineas Best Bet - Observer

Observer may well be more talented than Sixties irrespective of the draw and map, and the Godolphin colt has come out on top against that main rival at the barriers, looking to land on the speed comfortably, whereas Sixties has a wide alley to overcome.

The Victoria Derby winner is arguably more effective in the 1600m to 2000m range despite his 2500m success, and while it was a comfortable return victory in the Autumn Stakes, the lead-up suggested he would improve off whatever he produced fresh.

That first-up performance was solid rather than explosive, and he now faces a sharper contest at set weights.

Observer also appears to hold a tactical edge over Planet Red, the only other runner at a single-figure quote.

Their prior clashes suggest there is little between the pair, making race shape and positioning crucial, and the Godolphin colt profiles to get the right run.
2026 Australian Guineas Value Bet - Express Class

How strong is the CS Hayes Stakes reference?

Sixties covered ground in the traditional Australian Guineas lead-up and still had something in hand on a field that appeared to lack depth.

While he is a massive price here, Express Class went as well as anything behind Sixties in that 1400m feature, making ground with the race’s fastest last 800m, 600m and 400m splits after settling in an awkward rearward position.

He showed a sharp turn-of-foot in his debut win last winter before a Group 3 placing, highlighting genuine talent.

He may ultimately prove most effective as a sprinter, leaving 1600m as a query, but with a better draw and a cosy run, Express Class has the finish to play a role and can easily fill a top-three or top-four spot.

2026 Australian Guineas - Field & Odds


No.HorseTrainerJockeyBarrierWeightOdds
1ObserverCiaron MaherEthan Brown657kg$2.35
2Planet RedMick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)Jamie Melham957kg$5.50
3West Of SwindonCiaron MaherBen Allen357kg$19
4SixtiesChris WallerDamian Lane1057kg$2.75
5BingiPeter G Moody & Katherine ColemanLuke Cartwright (a)257kg$101
6OfficiateChris WallerBen Melham457kg$51
7Romantic Encounter (NZ)Ben, Will & JD HayesDaniel Stackhouse557kg$31
8Victorious SpiritPeter G Moody & Katherine ColemanZac Spain757kg$21
9OnavuittonSimon ZahraThomas Stockdale857kg$26
10Express ClassGerard MoloneyPatrick Moloney157kg$81

Odds provided by Dabble & correct on 25/02/2026.

Verdict

Our tips for the 2026 Australian Guineas are:

Best Bet1: Observer To Win $2.35 at dabble - 9 Units
Best Bet2: Express Class Each Way $81.00 at dabble - 1 Unit
Observer
To Win
$2.35 - 9 Units
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with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

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Express Class
Each Way
$81.00 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

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