2026 US Open

Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Pegula to advance into R16

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026 00:51

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez predictions for Friday's US Open R3
Pegula has a dominant 25-1 record vs players ranked 30+ in 2026
Fernandez a flashy player, doesn't have the consistency to hang with an in-form Pegula
The match is scheduled to start around 1.30am AEST on Saturday September 5

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Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Jessica Pegula has won 25 of her 26 matches this season against players outside the top 30 and she's tipped to extend that dominant record against World No. 33 Leylah Fernandez in the US Open third round on Friday.

Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Pegula vs Fernandez Stats & Trends
Pegula vs Fernandez Head To Head
Jessica Pegula Form Analysis
Leylah Fernandez Form Analysis
Pegula vs Fernandez Live Stream

Pegula remains one of the toughest players to beat on tour. She's so steady, so compact and so difficult to break down. Her retrieval skills and ability to absorb and redirect pace means it's almost impossible for lower-ranked players to defeat her when she's playing well. The American is just too consistent and will patiently wait for the inevitable unforced error in frustration.

Which is why I'm backing Pegula in straight sets and to cover here.

Fernandez is a very streaky and flashy player, capable of some huge tennis. In fact, this is a contest between former US Open finalists after the Canadian made the final as an 18-year-old back in 2021.

But Fernandez is also prone to messy tennis as well and that's something that Pegula can exploit with her game style. Pegula cruised past Fernandez 6-2 6-2 earlier this year in Miami, striking 22 winners to just 12 unforced errors, with the Canadian rushed on serve and committing eight double faults.

I'm expecting a similar sort of outcome here as Pegula books her spot in the R16.

Pegula vs Fernandez Stats & Trends

Pegula has a 25-1 record vs players ranked 30+ this season
Pegula has won 19 of those 25 matches in straight sets
Pegula has won seven of her last eight Grand Slam third round matches
Pegula has won seven of her last eight matches overall
Twelve of Pegula's last 13 US Open wins have come in straight sets
Five of those seven third round wins have been in straight sets
Fernandez has lost her last three Grand Slam third round matches, all in straight sets
Fernandez has lost 13 of her last 15 matches vs top 10 players, eight in straight sets

Pegula vs Fernandez Head To Head

Pegula leads 3-1, including a dominant straight sets win in Miami earlier this season.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2026	Miami	Hard	Round of 32	Jessica Pegula	6–2, 6–2
2025	Washington DC	Hard	Round of 16	Leylah Fernandez	6–3, 1–6, 7–5
2024	Cincinnati	Hard	Quarterfinals	Jessica Pegula	7–5, 6–7(1), 7–6(3)
2024	Miami	Hard	Round of 32	Jessica Pegula	7–5, 6–4

Jessica Pegula Form Analysis

2026 WTA Record: 47-12
US Open Record: 25-9
Current Ranking: No. 3
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

It's been another extremely consistent season for Pegula and she has an outside chance of hitting the World No. 1 ranking if she can land her first major title at this US Open and other results fall her way.

Pegula has won two titles in Dubai and Charleston, along with three runner-up finishes at Berlin, Washington and recently in Cincinnati, where she beat Iga Swiatek before falling to Coco Gauff.

The 32-year-old was also a semi-finalist at the Australian Open at the start of the year.

Pegula has been dominant so far at this US Open, not dropping more than three games in a set in crushing victories over Elena-Gabriela Ruse (6-3 6-2) and Sofia Kenin (6-3 6-1).

Leylah Fernandez Form Analysis

2026 WTA Record: 17-21
US Open Record: 12-6
Current Ranking: No. 33
Career-High Ranking: No. 13 (2022)

It's been a pretty disappointing season overall for Fernandez.

The Canadian failed to win back-to-back matches across the opening three-and-a-half months of the year and she holds a negative win-loss record.

Fernandez's best tournament results were quarter-finals on clay in Madrid and Strasbourg, while she scored a memorable victory over French Open champion Mirra Andreeva on her way to the R16 at home in Toronto.

Still only 23 years of age, the former US Open runner-up is back playing some good tennis in New York, advancing to the third round with straight sets victories over Zhang Shuai (6-3 6-2) and Mananchaya Sawangkaew (6-4 6-1).