2026 US Open

Carlos Alcaraz vs Yibing Wu US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Alcaraz to move on in New York

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026 01:30

Andrew Hendrie 2 hours ago

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Yibing Wu predictions for Friday's US Open R3
Wu a talented player who is capable of forcing a tiebreak set
Alcaraz on a 14-match winning streak in slam R3 matches, tipped for straight sets win
The match is scheduled to start around 3.30am AEST on Saturday September 5

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Yibing Wu US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Carlos Alcaraz has won 14 consecutive Grand Slam third round matches and the defending US Open champion is backed to extend that record when he comes up against the talented Yibing Wu on Friday - but there is some value in the tiebreak markets for this one.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Yibing Wu US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alcaraz vs Wu Stats & Trends
Alcaraz vs Wu Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
Yibing Wu Form Analysis
Alcaraz vs Wu Live Stream

I'm tempted to back Wu for an upset here, but the Chinese player has a history of injury and fitness problems, which makes it hard to trust him from a physical standpoint. However, Wu is more than capable of playing lights out for one set, which brings the tiebreak markets into play.

In 16 previous meetings with top 20 players, Wu has played 1+ tiebreak in exactly half of them - including against Alcaraz in Shanghai two years ago, with the Spaniard taking the opening set in a breaker. Alcaraz also played two opening set tiebreakers on his way to the Australian Open title earlier this year against Yannick Hanfmann and Tommy Paul.

The point here is that Alcaraz is still working his way back from injury and Wu has proven he can trouble elite players for a short amount of time, but not sustain it over the course of a match.

So the value plays for this one are 1+ tiebreaks and an opening set tiebreak, with Alcaraz winning in straight sets.

Alcaraz vs Wu Stats & Trends

Wu has seen 1+ tiebreak in eight of his 16 matches vs top 20 players
Wu has played a first set tiebreak in three of his seven matches vs top 10 players
Alcaraz won a first set tiebreak vs Wu in Shanghai in their only previous meeting
Alcaraz played two first set tiebreaks across his opening four rounds at the Australian Open earlier this year
Alcaraz has won his last 14 consecutive Grand Slam third round matches
Wu has a 1-6 record vs top 10 players

Alcaraz vs Wu Head To Head

Alcaraz won their only previous meeting in Shanghai two years ago in straights.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2024	Carlos Alcaraz	ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	7–6(5), 6–3

Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 24-3
US Open Record: 26-3
Current Ranking: No. 3
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

Alcaraz arrived at the US Open having not played a singles match since April in Barcelona, where a wrist injury brought his tournament to an early end and subsequently ruled him out of Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the entire North American hardcourt swing.

Given that lengthy absence, Alcaraz would have been satisfied with his 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 opening-round victory over Roman Safiullin, with the dangerous Russian more than capable of producing some big tennis.

However, the scoreline perhaps made the victory look more comfortable than it actually was. Alcaraz won just eight more points across the match (99-91) and faced six break points on serve. Had Safiullin been more clinical with those opportunities, the contest could have developed very differently.

Jaime Faria took it one step further in the second round, winning the opening set before Alcaraz regrouped strongly, responding with a bagel and dropping just five more games for the match in a 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 victory, striking a total of 43 winners.

Yibing Wu Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 8-9
US Open Record: 5-2
Current Ranking: No. 113
Career-High Ranking: No. 54 (2023)

There's no doubt Wu has the talent to be a top 20 player, but unfortunately constant injury problems have stalled his progress up the rankings.

Wu broke through to win the ATP 500 Dallas Open title in 2023, which propelled him to the cusp of the top 50. However, he's spent most of the last three years languishing outside the top 100 after various injury setbacks.

This is just Wu's 10th tour-level event of the year, with his best result coming in February when he made the Acapulco quarter-finals.

However, the 26-year-old appears in good shape so far in New York, advancing to the third round for the second time after dominant straight set victories over a pair of Aussies in Adam Walton (7-6(2) 6-2 7-5) and James Duckworth (7-5 6-3 6-1).