Elena Rybakina vs Naomi Osaka US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Osaka to edge fourth round blockbuster
Naomi Osaka and Elena Rybakina face off in the US Open fourth round, with Osaka predicted to prevail in a close match that likely goes over 22.5 games and could reach a deciding set. While Rybakina leads their head-to-head after a tight victory in Toronto, Osaka’s credentials and US Open experience—having won two titles—make her the slight favorite. Rybakina is in pursuit of the world number one ranking but has never gone beyond the last 16 in New York, while Osaka consistently excels at this stage. Expect a high-quality and tightly contested battle.
- Elena Rybakina vs Naomi Osaka predictions for Monday's US Open R16 match
- Osaka looking to make fourth US Open quarter-final; Rybakina never been beyond R16
- Over 22.5 games tipped, with Osaka prevailing in three
- The match is scheduled to start around 5.00am AEST on Tuesday September 8
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Elena Rybakina vs Naomi Osaka US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka is tipped to edge out World No. 2 Elena Rybakina in a box office fourth round showdown that features Over 22.5 games and goes to a deciding set.
After not facing each other throughout their entire careers, Osaka and Rybakina are now squaring off for the second time this summer.
It was Rybakina who came away with a 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 victory in the quarter-finals of Toronto a few weeks ago, edging out a second set tiebreak before holding on in the decider.
I think Osaka can turn the tables in New York.
The former World No. 1 thrives in these conditions, winning the title in 2018 and 2020, while she was also a semi-finalist last year. Osaka has also won four of her last five Grand Slam R16 matches - when she sinks her teeth into a tournament, she usually goes very far.
I also just haven't been convinced with Rybakina over the last few months. She found some good form again in Toronto, but then retired with injury in Cincinnati. She's looked solid without being spectacular through three rounds at Flushing Meadows - Rybakina has also never been beyond the R16 at this tournament.
So I'm siding with Osaka as the slight underdog. Should be another close contest, but the Japanese is the proven player in New York.
Rybakina vs Osaka Stats & Trends
- Osaka has seen Over 22.5 games in her last four matches
- Rybakina has seen Over 22.5 games in three of her last four Grand Slam R16 matches
- Osaka has won four of her last five Grand Slam R16 matches
- Osaka has won 31 of her 38 US Open matches
- Rybakina has lost three of her last four Grand Slam R16 matches
- Rybakina has never been past the US Open R16 in seven previous appearances
Rybakina vs Osaka Head To Head
Rybakina leads 1-0, prevailing in three in Toronto earlier this summer.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Toronto | Hard | Quarterfinals | Elena Rybakina | 4–6, 7–6(5), 6–4 |
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 45-13
- US Open Record: 11-6
- Current Ranking: No. 2
- Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (March 2026)
Rybakina is just two wins away from securing the No. 1 ranking for the first time - if she makes the US Open semi-finals, it's hers.
It was a fantastic start to the season for Rybakina after she won her second major title at the Australian Open before semi-finals at both Indian Wells and Miami.
However, it was a disappointing clay and grass swing, with Rybakina losing in the second round of Roland Garros and third round of Wimbledon, failing to advance past the quarter-finals of any tournament during the European summer.
But a return to hardcourt has been the catalyst for some improved form, with Rybakina making the final of Toronto, beating Osaka and Coco Gauff before falling to Iga Swiatek.
Rybakina suffered a setback in Cincinnati as she was forced to retire with injury, but she appears back to full health in New York, reaching the fourth round for just the second time in her career with victories over Thea Frodin (6-3 6-2), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (6-2 6-4) and Yuliia Starodubtseva (7-6(6) 6-3).
Naomi Osaka Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 28-11
- US Open Record: 31-7
- Current Ranking: No. 13
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2019)
After an injury-disrupted start to the season, Osaka has found her groove and she would be hoping to claw her way back into the top 10 by the end of the year.
Osaka found her form again during the clay swing and has gone 19-5 in her last 24 matches since Roland Garros.
The four-time major champion defeated World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka to make the quarter-finals of Wimbledon and launched her North American hardcourt swing by reaching the semi-finals in Washington and quarter-finals in Toronto.
Osaka is into the second week of the US Open for the fifth time - she's gone onto win the title on two occasions, along with a semi-final last year.
It hasn't been smooth sailing for the 28-year-old, with Osaka surviving a series of tough matches over Anastasia Zakharova (7-6(6) 7-6(3)), Katerina Siniakova (6-2 5-7 6-1) and Elise Mertens (6-3 3-6 7-5).
Rybakina vs Osaka Live Stream
Watch and bet on Elena Rybakina vs Naomi Osaka live tennis from the US Open.
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Verdict
Osaka is tipped to win a tight match over Rybakina and make the US Open quarter-finals for the fourth time.
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