Australian Guineas 2025 Tips - Ndola worth a ticket in futures betting

Jackson Oldham

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Last updated: Mon 17 Feb 2025 02:27

Jackson Oldham 17 Feb 2025

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Angel Capital holds favouritsm for the Australian Guineas
Ndola the improver from the CS Hayes Stakes
The New Zealand raider Savaglee brings in a different formline

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Southport Tycoon wins the 2024 Australian Guineas (Getty Images)

The Australian Guineas will be run at Flemington Racecourse on Saturday, March 1st, 2025. It’s shaping up to be a terrific contest with multiple different formlines expected to clash. The current favourite is the Clinton McDonald-trained Angel Capital, who is currently $4.40 with Ladbrokes.

The Cliff Brown-trained Sepals is on an upward spiral and produced another sensational victory in the C.S. Hayes Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on February 15, producing a rating of 113 on the Timeform scale, which is ahead of the first-up run of Angel Capital (111) in the Autumn Stakes at Caulfield.

That high rating C.S. Hayes Stakes is the focus of my long range betting strategy in the Australian Guineas, as I will be backing the Lindsay Park-trained N’Dola, who ran a slashing second behind Sepals.

He started short in the market first-up and was poor but bounced back to form quickly at Flemington, flying home from last in a race where the other three horses who finished in the top four, settled in the first six in run. I am expecting him to improve again out to the mile.

The New Zealand raider Savaglee was the long time Australian Guineas favourite until his third, beaten 4.2L behind Here To Shock and Bosustow in the BCD Group Sprint over 1400m on February 8.

Although Savaglee is a worthy participant, the current price on offer looks skinny, considering he got beaten by Bosustow, who has formlines around current favourite Angel Capital, starting $8 and running eighth behind him in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude in the Spring.

Speaking of New Zealand, the $9 fourth-favourite Evaporate is taking up market percentage despite the stable declaring that they are travelling across the Tasman to run in the new slot race, the NZB Kiwi instead of running in the Australian Guineas.

The other horse at big odds who may be worth a look is the Emma Lee & David Browne-trained Statuario, who ran the eventual Oaks winner of the Spring Treasurethe Moment to within two-lengths at the mile last preparation and resumed with a great run behind Angel Capital in the inferior part of the track in the Autumn Stakes.

Verdict

Australian Guineas

The early value for the 2025 Australian Guineas lies with the Lindsay Park-trained Ndola, who struck back to his best form last start by running an eye-catching second behind Sepals in the Group 3 C.S. Hayes stakes at Flemington.