US Open Men's Outright Tips & Predictions - Zverev & Shelton can go all the way; Nakashima value

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu. 27 Aug. 2026 04:12

Andrew Hendrie 27 Aug. 2026

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US Open 2026 men's outright winner betting tips & predictions
Zverev and Shelton genuine contenders with Sinner out & Alcaraz lacking matchplay
Fils looking to continue Cincy momentum; Nakashima consistent & offers value
The tournament begins on Monday August 31 at 1.00am AEST

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US Open Men's Outright Tips & Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz hasn't played for four months and can't be backed to defend his US Open title. Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton stand out as leading contenders, while Arthur Fils is the man in form following Cincinnati. Brandon Nakashima has been highly impressive and consistent all summer and is the value play.

With Jannik Sinner ruled out with a mystery knee injury and Carlos Alcaraz without a competitive match since Barcelona four months ago, this US Open title looks there for the taking.

I've picked out four of my favourite bets for the title across the next fortnight at Flushing Meadows.

Who Will Win The Men's US Open title in 2026?

Alexander Zverev - $4.00 with Picklebet

2026 ATP Record: 46-13
US Open Record: 28-10
Best US Open Result: Runner-Up (2020)

Zverev has won more matches than any player on tour this season and capitalised on the absence of Sinner and Alcaraz to capture his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros. Breaking through at major level appears to have lifted a weight from his shoulders, with the German playing far more freely during the grass-court swing as he reached his first Wimbledon final, taking a set from Sinner before finishing runner-up.

The world No. 2 also boasts an outstanding record at the US Open, where he owns a 28-10 career mark and finished runner-up in 2020. With the confidence of finally securing a Grand Slam title, Zverev looks better equipped than ever to contend in New York. Not too worried about early exits in Canada and Cincinnati - those were never the real targets for Zverev and he should lift accordingly.

Ben Shelton - $8.00 with Picklebet

2026 ATP Record: 33-13
US Open Record: 9-4
Best US Open Result: Semi-Final (2023)

Shelton has repeatedly shown he rises to the biggest occasions, and there are few stages bigger than a night match at the US Open. The American thrives in front of his home crowd, reaching the semi-finals in 2023 before an untimely injury forced him to retire from the tournament last year.

The big-serving left-hander arrives in New York after successfully defending his Canadian Masters title. An early exit in Cincinnati may actually prove a blessing, giving him extra time to recover and prepare for a tournament where he shapes as a genuine title contender.

Shelton possesses the explosive weapons needed to trouble anyone on hard courts. He boasts a perfect 4-0 record in tour-level finals this season, underlining his ability to deliver in the biggest moments, while he has already reached at least the quarter-finals at a major on five occasions. With Sinner out (the Italian has beaten him in his last three major quarter or semi-finals), Shelton has his best chance yet to achieve maiden Grand Slam glory.

Arthur Fils - $13 with Picklebet

2026 ATP Record: 32-10
US Open Record: 2-2
Best US Open Result: Round 2 (2023-24)

I jumped on Fils at $51 a few weeks ago, but he's come into $13 following his Cincinnati Masters triumph - but I still don't mind double-digit odds for who I think is a top five favourite.

The Frenchman has been outstanding whenever he's been fit this season, with injury the only factor that has interrupted his momentum. Since returning, he has quickly rediscovered the level that established him as one of the tour's most dangerous young players.

The 22-year-old has won 32 of his 42 matches in 2026 and consistently delivered at the biggest events, reaching the semi-finals in Miami and Madrid, the quarter-finals in Indian Wells and Montreal, and finishing runner-up in Doha. Fils then broke through last week for his maiden Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, destroying Frances Tiafoe with a bagel in the deciding set of their final.

A breakthrough run at a Grand Slam feels inevitable. Fils has never advanced beyond the fourth round at a major, but New York shapes as a perfect opportunity to change that. His aggressive style, explosive athleticism and ability to raise his level on the biggest stages make him a genuine contender in the Big Apple.

Brandon Nakashima - $51 with Picklebet

2026 ATP Record: 31-17
US Open Record: 8-6
Best US Open Result: R16 (2024)

Have to play Nakashima at $51.

The American has been one of the standout players on tour since linking up with new coach Wayne Ferreira during the grass swing.

Nakashima has made at least the semi-finals in four of his last five tournaments, including reaching his first Masters 1000 final in Canada. He backed it up with a run to the semi-finals in Cincinnati, while he's beaten the likes of Alex de Minaur, Jakub Mensik, Taylor Fritz, Rafael Jodar and Daniil Medvedev this summer.

Nobody has showcased the level of consistency that Nakashima has produced over the last couple of months and 25-year-old looks primed for a first real breakthrough in New York.

US Open 2026 Men's Winner Odds

You can check out the latest odds for who will win the men's singles title at the US Open below (all odds from Picklebet, correct from 27/8/26).

Player	US Open Odds
Carlos Alcaraz	$2.60
Alexander Zverev	$4.00
Novak Djokovic	$8.00
Ben Shelton	$8.50
Taylor Fritz	$13.00
Rafael Jódar	$13.00
Arthur Fils	$13.00
Daniil Medvedev	$21.00
Félix Auger-Aliassime	$26.00
Flavio Cobolli	$34.00
Frances Tiafoe	$34.00
Tommy Paul	$34.00
Lorenzo Musetti	$34.00
Jakub Menšík	$34.00
Learner Tien	$41.00
Alex de Minaur	$41.00
Alexander Bublik	$41.00
Brandon Nakashima	$51.00
Hubert Hurkacz	$51.00
Jiří Lehečka	$51.00
Andrey Rublev	$51.00
Casper Ruud	$67.00
Stefanos Tsitsipas	$67.00
Thiago Agustín Tirante	$67.00
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	$101.00
Cameron Norrie	$101.00
Matteo Berrettini	$101.00
Grigor Dimitrov	$101.00
Ugo Humbert	$101.00
Denis Shapovalov	$101.00
Francisco Cerúndolo	$101.00
Holger Rune	$101.00
Karen Khachanov	$101.00
Alexei Popyrin	$151.00
Arthur Rinderknech	$151.00
Arthur Fery	$151.00
Luciano Darderi	$151.00
Valentin Vacherot	$151.00
Alex Michelsen	$151.00