Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Rybakina secure No. 1 ranking?
- Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng predictions for Wednesday's US Open QF
- Close contest expected, with four of five previous meetings seeing Over 21.5 games
- Rybakina has added pressure of going for No. 1 ranking; Zheng holds value for the upset
- The match is scheduled to start around 1.30am AEST on Thursday September 10
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Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng US Open Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Four of the five previous meetings between Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng have featured Over 21.5 total games, while three have also gone the distance - I'm predicting another tight contest between the pair in this US Open quarter-final showdown, which has the added layer of Rybakina looking to claim the No. 1 ranking for the first time.
It's been an extraordinary tournament from Zheng, who has become the first qualifier since Emma Raducanu in 2021 to reach the US Open quarter-finals - and we all know how that turned out.
Zheng has pulled off two miraculous escapes on the bounce, coming back from 5-0 down in the deciding set against Madison Keys in the third round (along with saving a match point) before recovering from a 5-0 deficit in the opening set against Iga Swiatek in the R16, ultimately reeling off 13 of the next 16 games to reach a third US Open quarter-final.
It sets up this blockbuster showdown, with Rybakina advancing into her maiden US Open quarter-final following a destructive straight sets rout of two-time former champion Naomi Osaka. Rybakina has now made the quarter-finals of all four slams - but more importantly, is one win away from usurping Aryna Sabalenka for the No. 1 ranking.
So many fascinating storylines accompany this encounter and hopefully it lives up to the hype. Zheng has proven that H2H can go out the window this tournament after she was previously 1-7 against Swiatek.
These two have faced off twice this year, with Rybakina winning both in three sets - but Zheng's level is much higher now she's recovered from her long injury layoff. I'm backing Over 21.5 Games and Over 2.5 Sets, with value on Zheng continuing her magical run into the semi-finals.
Rybakina vs Zheng Stats & Trends
- Zheng is now 17-3 lifetime at the US Open (including qualifying)
- It's taken Sabalenka to beat Zheng in her last two US Open appearances
- Over 21.5 games has landed in four of the five previous meetings
- Over 2.5 sets has landed in three of the five previous meetings
- Zheng has seen Over 21.5 games & Over 2.5 sets in four of her last five matches
- Rybakina has seen Over 21.5 games & Over 2.5 sets in her last five completed QF matches
- Zheng is 1-0 in Grand Slam quarter-finals when not facing Sabalenka
- Zheng has seen Over 21.5 games in four of her last six matches vs top 10 players
Rybakina vs Zheng Head To Head
Rybakina leads 4-1 overall, winning both 2026 meetings in three sets.
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Madrid | Clay | Round of 32 | Elena Rybakina | 4–6, 6–4, 6–3 |
| 2026 | Doha | Hard | Round of 16 | Elena Rybakina | 4–6, 6–2, 7–5 |
| 2024 | WTA Finals | Hard | Round 1 | Qinwen Zheng | 7–6(4), 3–6, 6–1 |
| 2023 | Beijing | Hard | Round of 64 | Elena Rybakina | 6–1, 6–2 |
| 2022 | Wimbledon | Grass | Round of 32 | Elena Rybakina | 7–6(4), 7–5 |
Elena Rybakina Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 46-13
- US Open Record: 12-6
- Current Ranking: No. 2
- Career-High Ranking: No. 2 (March 2026)
Rybakina is now just one win away from securing the World No. 1 ranking for the first time in her career.
The Kazakh made a fantastic start to the season, capturing her second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open before backing that up with semi-final appearances at both Indian Wells and Miami.
However, Rybakina struggled to maintain that momentum throughout the clay and grass swings. She suffered a second-round exit at Roland Garros and bowed out in the third round at Wimbledon, failing to progress beyond the quarter-finals of any tournament during the European summer.
A return to hardcourt proved to be the catalyst for an improvement in form, with Rybakina advancing to the final in Toronto. She defeated the likes of Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff during an impressive run before eventually falling to Iga Swiatek in the decider.
Rybakina suffered a setback in Cincinnati when she was forced to retire through injury, but she's well and truly back to full fitness in New York.
She has reached the quarter-finals of the US Open for the first time in her career after recording straight-sets victories over Thea Frodin (6-3, 6-2), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (6-2, 6-4), Yuliia Starodubtseva (7-6(6), 6-3) and Naomi Osaka (6-1 6-4).
Rybakina was especially ruthless against Osaka, firing off 29 winners and seven aces for just 17 unforced errors. If she reproduces those numbers in the quarter-finals, Rybakina will be hard to stop.
Qinwen Zheng Form Analysis
- 2026 WTA Record: 15-12
- US Open Record: 14-3
- Current Ranking: No. 121
- Career-High Ranking: No. 4 (2025)
It has been a difficult last year or so for Zheng, who tumbled outside the top 100 after reaching a career-high ranking of World No. 4, with elbow surgery contributing to her slide down the rankings.
Before arriving in New York, Zheng had not won more than two consecutive matches since returning from surgery. However, the 23-year-old has rediscovered her form at the US Open, winning seven straight matches after successfully coming through qualifying.
Zheng has been pushed to a deciding set in three of her four main draw matches, battling past Kristina Liutova 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 and Yulia Putintseva 6-4, 2-6, 6-1 before producing a remarkable escape against Madison Keys.
The Paris Olympics gold medallist looked destined for defeat after falling 5-0 behind in the deciding set and was forced to save a match point at 1-5. However, Zheng reeled off seven consecutive games to complete an extraordinary 1-6, 7-6(3), 7-5 comeback.
Incredibly, Zheng was at it again in the quarter-finals, coming back from 0-5 down in the first set against Swiatek, stunning the Pole with her aggressive brand of tennis to win 13 of the next 16 games in a superb 7-5 6-3 victory to reach the US Open quarter-finals for the third time.
Rybakina vs Zheng Live Stream
Watch and bet on Elena Rybakina vs Qinwen Zheng live tennis from the US Open.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > US Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
Over 21.5 games & Over 2.5 sets are the main plays here, with Zheng holding some value to continue her remarkable run.
Over 21.5
Total Games
$1.70 - 3 Units
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Over 2.5
Total Sets
$2.50 - 1 Unit
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Zheng Win
H2H
$3.20 - 1 Unit
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