A-League 2026/27

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory A-League Round 1 Tips & Prediction - Victory to win across the Tasman

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri. 16 Oct. 2026 04:39

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory predictions for Sunday's A-League R1
Victory backed for all three points; have won four of the last five meetings
Clarismario & Jelacic in good form & were impactful vs Nix last term
The game is scheduled for kick off at 1.00pm AEDT on Sunday October 18

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory A-League Round 1 Tips & Prediction

Melbourne Victory are tipped to cap a busy week with a win when they make the trip across the ditch to face Wellington Phoenix to close out Round 1 of the new A-League season on Sunday.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory A-League Round 1 Tips & Prediction
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Stats & Trends
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head To Head
Wellington Phoenix Form Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Team News
Melbourne Victory Form Analysis
Melbourne Victory Team News

It's been a wild last seven days or so for Victory - they suffered a heartbreaking Australia Cup final defeat on penalties to South Melbourne, but bounced back to register a commanding 3-0 triumph over Korean heavyweights FC Seoul in the ACL 2 mid-week. Now, they go over to NZ to face a Wellington side that very well could finish bottom of the barrel this term.

Chris Greenacre has a huge job ahead of him - Phoenix did okay in finishing eighth last season, but they've lost basically all of the key players that got them there, including top scorer Ifeanyi Eze.

Wellington have picked up Rafael Juran and James McGarry, but on paper, their squad looks very thin.

I'm not convinced with Victory either, but we know what they're working with and they've won four of the last five meetings between the teams.

Take Victory to win in a game that features Over 2.5 goals, while Clarismario Santos looks decent value to find the back of the net, with winger Keegan Jelacic also backed to work the keeper.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Stats & Trends

Victory have won four of the last five meetings
Phoenix have seen Over 2.5 goals in eight of their last 13 A-League games
Victory have seen Over 2.5 goals in five of their last eight A-League games
Three of the last four meetings have seen 5+ goals
Clarismario & Jelacic both scored vs Wellington in R15 last season
Clarismario was on target vs Seoul mid-week
Jelacic had a shot on target vs Seoul, + 1+ shots on target in two of three games vs Phoenix last season

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head To Head

As mentioned, Victory have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 29-14 record overall, alongside 14 draws.

Wellington Phoenix Form Analysis

It wasn't a bad season from Phoenix last term as they finished in eighth, winning nine of their 26 games.

However, I don't see how they improve this campaign.

Wellington have seen several key figures depart and haven't really covered them. The Nix didn't feature in the Australia Cup, with New Zealand clubs no longer permitted to compete.

Chris Greenacre took charge midway through last term following a long stint at the club and will need to work some magic to get his team humming here.

Wellington Phoenix Team News

Alex Rufer captains the side and will be an instrumental figure in the heart of midfield.

Rafael Duran and James McGarry should both start after arriving in the summer, while Corban Piper was impressive last term and will want to take his game to the next level.

Wellington Phoenix Possible Starting XI (4-3-3): Henry Gray; Matthew Sheridan, Bill Tuiloma, Dylan Gardiner, Lukas Kelly-Heald; Alex Rufer, Kazuki Nagasawa, Max Anderson; Corban Piper, Rafael Durán, James McGarry

Melbourne Victory Form Analysis

It's been a busy preseason for Victory after they were eliminated in the finals last term by Sydney FC.

Victory advanced into the Australia Cup final, but they missed out on a third trophy after being stunned by NPL Victoria side South Melbourne.

Denis Genreau put Victory ahead in the opening five minutes of extra-time, but they conceded a late equaliser before succumbing on penalties, with Jason Davidson and Harry Sawyer missing from the spot.

Victory were able to dust themselves off to extend their unbeaten start in the ACL 2, backing up their 1-1 draw with Viettel FC on the road with a dominant 3-0 triumph at AAMI Park over FC Seoul on Wednesday, with Clarismario, Guillermo May and Jordi Valadon all scoring second-half goals, while Genreau provided two assists.

Melbourne Victory Team News

It looks as if the bulk of the squad will back up after a hectic last week, with only Louis D’arrigo listed as unavailable.

Uruguayan striker May scored 15 goals for Auckland over the last two A-League seasons and could replace Charles Nduka in the starting side up front.

Melbourne Victory Possible Starting XI (4-2-3-1): Jack Duncan; Joshua Inserra, Tom Lockyer, Jason Davidson Franco Lino; Xavier Stella, Jordi Valadon; Keegan Jelacic, Matthew Grimaldi, Clarismario Santos; Guillermo May

Verdict

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Victory are backed to claim all three points in a game that produces Over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5

Total Goals

$1.55 - 3 Units

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Clarismario

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