Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Sakkari looking to repeat Doha upset over Swiatek

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 09 Mar 2026 04:03

Andrew Hendrie 09 Mar 2026

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Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari predictions for Monday's WTA Indian Wells R3 match
Sakkari has beaten Swiatek four times before, including last month in Doha
Swiatek has dropped sets to three players outside the top 30 already in 2026
The match is scheduled to start around 9.00am AEDT on Tuesday March 10

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Maria Sakkari (Photo by Getty Images)

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

After squaring off twice in the final here, Iga Swiatek and Maria Sakkari clash in the Indian Wells third round on Monday.

Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Swiatek vs Sakkari Stats & Trends
Swiatek vs Sakkari Head To Head
Iga Swiatek Form Analysis
Maria Sakkari Form Analysis
Swiatek vs Sakkari Live Stream

The reason for their early round showdown this year is due to Sakkari tumbling down the rankings over the last few years, but the Greek is coming off a resurgent tournament in Doha last month that saw her claw back into the world's top 40 - and register a big win over Swiatek along the way.

The slow, high-bouncing conditions in the Californian desert suit Sakkari's game style to a tee, but they also favour Swiatek too, so it's not the most obvious or reliable upset pick. I'm also cautious of Swiatek crushing Sakkari in both of those finals when the Greek was operating at a much higher level.

In saying that, Swiatek's level has also dropped quite considerably lately - relatively speaking of course. She's dropped sets against the likes of Kasatkina, Kalinskaya and Lys this season and needed a second-set tiebreak to finish off qualifier Kayla Day after trailing 5-1 in the second set. She's far from invincible right now and Sakkari knows she has the tools to do damage after last month's upset in Doha.

I'd be weary of the upset again in Indian Wells, but I will back Sakkari to cover and win a set.

Swiatek vs Sakkari Stats & Trends

Swiatek has dropped a set in three of her last six matches vs players outside the top 30
Sakkari has won her last two matches vs top 10 players
Sakkari has won four previous matches vs Swiatek, including last month in Doha
Sakkari has won 15 of her last 19 matches in Indian Wells
Swiatek has dropped a set or been pushed to a tiebreak in her last three matches

Swiatek vs Sakkari Head To Head

Currently level at 4-4, with Sakkari claiming a thrilling three-set victory in Doha last month.

Year	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026	Doha	Quarterfinals	Hard	Maria Sakkari	2–6, 6–4, 7–5
2025	Doha	Round of 32	Hard	Iga Swiatek	6–3, 6–2
2024	Indian Wells	Final	Hard	Iga Swiatek	6–4, 6–0
2022	Indian Wells	Final	Hard	Iga Swiatek	6–4, 6–1
2022	Doha	Semifinals	Hard	Iga Swiatek	6–4, 6–3
2021	WTA Finals	Round Robin	Hard	Maria Sakkari	6–2, 6–4
2021	Ostrava	Semifinals	Hard	Maria Sakkari	6–4, 7–5
2021	Roland Garros	Quarterfinals	Clay	Maria Sakkari	6–4, 6–4

Iga Swiatek Form Analysis

2026 Record: 10-4
WTA Indian Wells Record: 24-4
Current Ranking: No. 2
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

Swiatek did manage to add the Wimbledon title to her Grand Slam trophy cabinet last year, but she's not really been able to build on that triumph and remains below her best - even if she is No. 2 in the rankings.

The Pole suffered a crushing 7-5 6-1 loss to Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open quarter-finals and was then knocked out in the Doha quarter-finals by Sakkari after previously dropping a set to the injured and out-of-form Daria Kasatkina.

A two-time champion at Indian Wells, Swiatek clearly loves playing in the desert and has won 24 of her 28 main draw matches at this tournament.

It wasn't the smoothest of opening matches for Swiatek - she needed to recover from 1-5 down in the second set to close out American qualifier Kayla Day 6-1 7-6.

Maria Sakkari Form Analysis

2026 Record: 8-4
WTA Indian Wells Record: 20-9
Current Ranking: No. 34
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

It's been a rough few years for Sakkari after she hit a career-high ranking of No. 3 in 2022, but there's promising signs if her last tournament is anything to go by.

It's taken elite players to beat Sakkari in three of her four previous tournaments for the year, so she's been building nicely in 2026.

Sakkari defeated Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu at the United Cup before going down to Coco Gauff, while Mirra Andreeva knocked her out of the Australian Open.

The Greek then recorded back-to-back victories over Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini to reach the Doha semi-finals before going down to Karolina Muchova in three sets.

A two-time runner-up at Indian Wells, Sakkari dispatched rising teenage wildcard Lili Tagger 7-5 6-0 in her opening match.