Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon to edge Norrie in Indian Wells

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Mon 09 Mar 2026 05:48

Andrew Hendrie 09 Mar 2026

Share this article

Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie predictions for Monday's ATP Indian Wells R3 match
H2H is level at 2-2, a close match expected in the desert
De Minaur has a strong record vs players ranked below him, is tipped to edge it
The match is scheduled to start at 5.00am AEDT on Tuesday March 10

Expired

Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Aussie top 10 star Alex de Minaur targets the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters when he faces tricky lefty and former BNP Paribas Open champion Cameron Norrie on Monday.

Alex de Minaur vs Cameron Norrie Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Norrie Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Norrie Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Cameron Norrie Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Norrie Live Stream

De Minaur is having another solid year, establishing himself inside the top 10 and once again beating almost everyone ranked below him. The World No. 6 has never advanced beyond the R16 at Indian Wells and is on course for another showdown with Carlos Alcaraz in the last eight if the draw goes according to seeding.

However, de Minaur can't afford to underestimate Norrie - the Brit is a former champion at Indian Wells and thrives in the slower, high-bouncing conditions. De Minaur managed to outlast the in-form Sebi Korda in his opening match, which was a very good win, and if he maintains that level, he should have just enough to take down Norrie - but it shouldn't be one-sided by any means.

De Minaur vs Norrie Stats & Trends

De Minaur has won 17 of his last 18 matches vs players outside the top 25
De Minaur has seen Over 18.5 games in five of those last six victories
Norrie has a 16-6 record at Indian Wells & won the title in 2021
Norrie has seen Over 18.5 games in five of his last seven Indian Wells matches.
De Minaur has won six of his last seven matches vs left-handed players

De Minaur vs Norrie Head To Head

Currently level at 2-2. Norrie won the most-recent clash at the United Cup in 2024.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2024	Cameron Norrie	United Cup	Round Robin	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 2–6, 7–6(2)
2023	Alex de Minaur	ATP Masters 1000 Canada	Round of 64	Outdoor Hard	7–5, 6–4
2023	Cameron Norrie	United Cup	Round Robin	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 6–3
2022	Alex de Minaur	Barcelona	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Clay	6–3, 5–7, 6–1

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 12-3
ATP Indian Wells Record: 10-7
Current Ranking: No. 6
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

De Minaur continues to operate at a high level, coming into this clash at his peak ranking and winning 12 of his 15 matches for the season.

It was another Australian Open quarter-final for Demon to launch the year before he claimed an 11th ATP title in Rotterdam last month, beating Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final.

The 27-year-old suffered a shock opening round loss in Acapulco to Patrick Kypson, but has bounced back strongly in Indian Wells, toughing out a 4-6 6-4 6-4 victory over Delray Beach champion Sebastian Korda in his opening match.

"It was a brutal match. I knew going in how tough the match was going to be, and Sebi came out really hot, playing some great tennis," De Minaur said post-match.

"I just had to dig really deep. I mean, there were some very tough moments in the second set where I fought [off] some break points, and managed to kind of fight through and give myself a chance and an opportunity. I'm so stoked to get the win today against an incredibly high-quality opponent."

Cameron Norrie Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-5
ATP Indian Wells Record: 16-6
Current Ranking: No. 29
Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2022)

It's been a solid but unspectacular start to the season for Norrie, but he's got back inside the top 30 and will be hoping to climb further as the year progresses.

Norrie has made the second round at Brisbane, Adelaide and Rotterdam, along with the third round at the Australian Open.

The Brit suffered a disappointing straight sets loss to rising teenager Rafael Jodar in his most recent event in Acapulco, but has traditionally played his best tennis at Indian Wells and was a dominant 6-2 6-3 winner over Mackenzie McDonald in his opener.

Norrie won the Indian Wells title back in 2021 and has advanced to the quarter-finals on two other occasions.