Wimbledon Day 5 Tips, Predictions & Best Bets - Ostapenko targets upset over top seed Sabalenka

Sabalenka vs Ostapenko Tips & Prediction

• Ostapenko looks good to really challenge a vulnerable Sabalenka here
• Ostapenko has won at least one set in two of the last three meetings between the pair and was a straight sets winner in their most-recent clash in Stuttgart last year
• Sabalenka is yet to win Wimbledon and isn't at her best on grass - she lost pretty badly to Pegula in Berlin, while she was forced to recover from 2-5 down vs Kessler in R2, saving four set points. If Kessler can almost win a set, then Ostapenko certainly can
• Ostapenko has won 10 of her last 13 matches and was a dominant 6-0 6-2 winner over Ruzic in R2 - she's in good form and usually lifts against elite opposition (27 top 10 scalps)

Jovic vs Alexandrova Tips & Prediction

• Jovic has been on fire all season, rising to No. 16 in the world, while she's looked very strong across her opening two Wimbledon matches, defeating the in-form Jaqueline Cristian 7-6, 6-0 before a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Tatjana Maria
• Jovic has taken quickly to grass, registering an impressive 13-2 record on the surface at all levels
• Alexandrova meanwhile has been struggling basically all year - in fact, she only won three matches from Doha in February to Berlin a couple of weeks ago
• Alexandrova has lost 11 of her last 13 matches vs top 20 opponents - Jovic in this sort of form should prove far too strong here

Jodar vs Mochizuki Tips & Prediction

• I think Jodar will find a way to win this match, but don't sleep on Mochizuki, who is supremely dangerous on grass and can cover a +5.5 games line here
• Mochizuki is a former Wimbledon junior champion and has gone 7-3 on grass this year, qualifying for the main draw before beating Mallorca runner-up Ethan Quinn in straight sets in the second round - a very impressive result
• Jodar needed five sets to survive veteran Carreno Busta, who had never won a match at Wimbledon prior to this tournament
• The teenager is playing his first pro grass event and needed a medical timeout in the fourth set of his win over Carreno Busta - he's had a busy schedule over the last couple of months and I'd be surprised if he wins this match easily

Medvedev vs Struff Tips & Prediction

• Medvedev may have won nine of the 11 previous meetings between the pair, but this matchup is more even on grass, which suits Struff's big serve and flat hitting
• Indeed, Struff owns one win over Medvedev on grass, while he's taken a set in two previous Wimbledon meetings, going down in four on each occasion
• Struff knocked out Nakashima in five sets in the previous round and took a set off Alcaraz at Wimbledon last year - the German veteran remains dangerous on the lawns
• Medvedev remains as volatile as ever and dropped a set vs grass novice Merida in his previous match - I think Struff can sneak a set here

Paul vs Hurkacz Tips & Prediction

• This should be a competitive contest - you can back the Overs if you fancy, but I'm going for a bit more value and taking Paul to win, with Hurkacz taking a set in defeat
• Paul has a clear matchup advantage here, winning three of the four previous meetings - but Hurkacz has taken a set in two of the last three
• Hurkacz hasn't dropped a set this tournament and his booming serve is very effective on the slick lawns - he can build pressure on Paul and easily snatch a tiebreak
• However, Paul is more solid and consistent and over the course of five sets, I'd expect him to find a way - he's in good form, making the Queens final and has made the second week of Wimbledon on three occasions

Osaka vs Kasatkina Tips & Prediction

• Osaka looks in the mood at the moment and this looks a good matchup for the four-time major champion - she's beaten Kasatkina in all three previous meetings
• Osaka is in great form - she's beaten Elsa Jacquemot and Anastasia Gasanova in straight sets to reach R3, while she was also runner-up at Bad Homburg in the lead-up to Wimbledon
• Kasatkina has struggled over the last two years and was 0-3 on grass prior to Wimbledon, where she has battled her way into R3 following consecutive three-setters - she doesn't look at her best and Osaka can register a relatively routine win here