State of Origin 2026 Game 1 Same Game Multi Tips & Predictions - Best Bets for NSW vs QLD

Main SGM - NSW Win; Unders; To'o & Hammer Tries

• NSW Win @ $1.67
• Under 42.5 Points @ $1.70
• Brian To'o 1+ Try @ $2.05
• Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 1+ Try @ $2.40

• Always cautious of QLD rising to the occasion with their underdog status, but I just think this Blues team is superior and more settled - NSW have a 20-12 record at Accor and should make home ground advantage count
• Under 42.5 points has landed in nine of the last 15 Origins. Expect the six-again drama to be cast aside and for a more 'traditional' Origin game to play out
• To'o scored 1+ try in every Origin game last year & has eight tries in his last seven Origin appearances overall
• The Hammer always steps up in Origin, scoring 11 tries in his 10 previous outings

Backline Blitz

• Brian To'o 1+ Try @ $2.05
• Tolutau Koula 1+ Try @ $2.20
• Selwyn Cobbo 1+ Try @ $2.30
• Hamiso Tabuai Fidow 1+ Try @ $2.40

• See above for To'o & Hammer stats
• Koula has scored a try in his last two games for Manly & is primed for an electric Origin debut - he's arguably the fastest player in the world and that speed can wreak havoc in open play against some tired Maroons defenders
• Cobbo has scored four tries in his last three games for the Dolphins - the QLD right winger has scored 1+ try in the last three Origin Game 1s

Edge Forwards Value

• Haumole Olakau'atu 1+ Try @ $3.35
• Briton Nikora 1+ Try @ $5.00

• Haumole is arguably the form second-rower in the game - he scored in his most-recent outing for Manly and imagine him running at either of Sam Walker or Cameron Munster on the edge. Great value
• Nikora one of the most underrated hole-runners in the game - he's primed to make a big impact off the bench. Vibe play, but again, insane value and you won't ever get him at $5.00 in a regular match

1st Tryscorer/MOTM Double

• Brian To'o/Nathan Cleary @ $34

• To'o is simply the most likely first tryscorer, playing on the wing for the team who are favourites at home. He scored the first try once last year and five tries overall
• The injury to Moses means this is Cleary's best chance to step up and fully dominate an Origin for the first time. If NSW win this, Cleary will likely be at the centre of it

Anytime Roughies

• Max Plath 1+ Try @ $10
• Reece Robson 1+ Try @ $7.50

• Great value on both these starting players with OnlyBets. Plath scored in his most-recent game for the Phins and he'll be starting lock - $10 anytime is insane value. He's in career-best form and will be eager to make a statement on his Origin debut. Robson meanwhile has two tries in his last four appearances for the Roosters and will always be looking for a sneaky dart out of dummy-half close to the line