2026 NRL State of Origin Series

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State of Origin 2026 Game 1 Tips and Predictions NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons - Blues Tipped to Start Strong at Accor

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Mon 25 May 2026 20:42

Ryan Tucker 25 May 2026

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NSW Blues tipped to win Game 1 by 1-12 margin
Expect a low-scoring match under 42.5 total points
Brian To’o backed as first and anytime tryscorer

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Blues are the early favourites to win Game 1 and the 2026 State of Origin series thanks to their more settled halves pairing and more mobile forward pack.

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons, State of Origin Game 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
NSW Blues Form Analysis
NSW Blues Team News
QLD Maroons Form Analysis
QLD Maroons Team News
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists
NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1 FAQ’s

The venue stats over time also favour NSW with a 20-12 record at Accor but it’s important to note they have lost 4 straight Game 1 matches at home, their last win back in 2013.

James Tedesco’s inclusion will keep the QLD middle defence honest as a top 3 support player in the NRL. The Blues had 49 tackle breaks and 4 Linebreaks in their Game 1 win last year while their 83% completion rate certainly helped them to control the tempo of the game.

2026 State of Origin First Tryscorer Tips

Queensland’s opportunity exists mostly with individual brilliance. Kalyn Ponga, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Cam Munster and Harry Grant are all players that can turn a game on their own with one masterful effort play. NSW will need to make sure they don’t give an inch to any of these players to work their way to victory.

Not a lot of tries have been scored over the past few Origin series, and even though scoring is up in the NRL, too many Origin games have gone Under this Game Total in recent years. Expect a tight contest in Game 1 with defence being an important factor in who gets on top.

2026 State of Origin Man of the Match Tips

Take NSW to win with a 1-12 margin and the Game Total to go Under 42.5. Brian To’o is the top play for tryscorer, both as First and Anytime.

6 of the last 8 Game 1 matches have finished with a 1-12 margin. NSW hold a 20-12 record at Accor Stadium.
9 of the last 15 Origin Games have gone Under 42.5 pts.
NSW have scored first in 7 of the last 9 Game 1 matchups.
Brian To’o scored a try in every game last year and has 8 tries over his last 7 Origin matches.

Head to Head

The 2025 Series was won by QLD 2-1 clinching games 2 and 3 on the road in Perth and Sydney after losing Game 1 at Suncorp. QLD have now won 3 of the last 4 series dating back to 2022.

QLD lead the overall series H2H 25-17 with 2 series being drawn. The Maroons also hold an advantage in game wins 70-60 with 2 games ending in a draw.

NSW have not won a series opener at Accor Stadium since 2013 adn across all Origin Games played at Accor Stadium NSW are 20-12 with 1 game being drawn.

NSW Blues Form Analysis

The Blues are rightfully favoured at top NRL bookmakers in Australia. They have reigning Dally M Medallist James Tedesco, arguably the best player in the world in Nathan Cleary, Mitch Moses’ kicking game and some of the most mobile forwards in the league.

Their backline has been their foundation in recent years, able to create metres out of their own end from nothing. But this new set up doesn’t pack that same punch, even if they are probably more dynamic attacking the tryline.

The Blues have great depth and coverage across the forwards and halves but only 1 specialist winger and fullback in the whole squad leaves them short if anything was to happen early in the game.

NSW Blues Team News

Laurie Daley has made a number of huge calls, none bigger than bringing back James Tedesco in the fullback role, leaving Dylan Edwards out of the squad completely.

Kotoni Staggs and Tolu Koula are also named to start in the backline with injuries to Latrell Mitchell & Tom Trbojevic aswell as Zac Lomax leaving the game, opening up spots.

Daley has opted for a more mobile forward unit, naming Victor Radley and Cam Murray on the bench with only Jacob Saifiti being an out and out prop. Addin Fonua-Blake joins the team with the new eligibility rules with Haumole Olakau'atu grabbing an edge backrow spot over the Roosters Angus Crichton.

QLD Maroons Form Analysis

The Maroons have named a strong team to start the 2026 series but will be without Tom Dearden who has been essential to the success of the team in recent years. Also with new eligibility rules, Kalyn Ponga and Briton Nikora become eligible which strengthens the Maroons outside attack.

Where this team is lacking is their defence, especially out wide. Hammer, Cobbo and Fifita are not known for their defensive capabilities and up against the strength of the opposition could find themselves in some trouble. But what they lack in strength, they make up in speed.

The new spine has never played a minute of football together so could take time to gel but Harry Grant and Cam Munster are entering a spell of great form which usually only gets better in Origin.

QLD Maroons Team News

Reece Walsh was overlooked for Game 1 with Kalyn Ponga securing the fullback role and Sam Walker named to debut in the halves, replacing Tom Dearden who is out injured.

Xavier Coates, Josh Papalii and Jeremiah Nanai are also on the injured list with Jojo Fifita, Max Plath and Briton Nikora are named to make their debut for QLD. Selwyn Cobbo returns to the Origin arena following a strong start to the year for the Dolphins.

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons Team Lists

In-depth look at Origin Team Lists

NSW	#	QLD
J Tedesco	1	K Ponga
B To'o	2	S Cobbo
S Crichton	3	R Toia
K Staggs	4	H Tabuai-Fidow
T Koula	5	J Fifita
M Moses	6	C Munster
N Cleary	7	S Walker
A Fonua-Blake	8	T Flegler
R Robson	9	H Grant
M Barnett	10	T Fa'asuamaleaui
H Young	11	R Cotter
H Olakau'atu	12	K Capewell
I Yeo	13	M Plath
-	Interchange	-
C Murray	14	B Nikora
V Radley	15	L Collins
J Saifiti	16	P Carrigan
B Brailey	17	T Loiero
E Strange	18	E Mam
C McLean	19	G Shibasaki
-	Reserve	-
D Lucas	20	K Finefeuiaki

NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1?

You can watch the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution or check out bet365 for live updates.

How to buy tickets to NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1?

To buy tickets to the NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons NRL 2026 State of Origin Game 1 game check the NRL website or the official Accor Stadium site.

Verdict

2026 State of Origin Game 1

Take NSW to win with a 1-12 margin and the Game Total to go Under 42.5. Brian To’o is the top play for tryscorer, both as First and Anytime.

NSW 1-12

Winning Margin

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Brian To'o

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