2026 State of Origin Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule – Who will win the 2026 State of Origin Series?

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 21 May 2026 15:21

Ryan Tucker 21 May 2026

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NSW favoured to win 2026 series, priced at $1.65, after QLD's key injury.
Game schedule: Sydney (May 27), Melbourne (June 17), Brisbane (July 8).
Predicted result: NSW 2-1, but QLD still a threat if selection clicks.

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Cameron Munster and Tom Dearden of the Maroons. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

State of Origin 2026 Predictions, Series Preview & Schedule

Queensland came from 1‑0 down to win the 2025 series 2‑1, turning an 18‑6 loss at Suncorp into a 26‑24 win in Perth and a 24‑12 clincher in Sydney. That comeback sets the stage perfectly for 2026, with New South Wales now trying to flip the script and answer questions about their ability to close out tight series.

Tom Dearden’s injury has already shifted the narrative and the market, leaving Queensland without the halfback who steered last year’s turnaround and forcing Billy Slater into a big call in the halves. NSW, on the other hand, have selection headaches of the best kind with a stack of form players like Tedesco and Edwards fighting for spine and pack spots. The early signs suggest they have the depth to regain the shield over three games.

NSW Win $1.652026 SOO SeriesBet Here

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Picklebet currently has NSW around $1.65 in the series winner market, which is a fair reflection of how the Blues stack up on paper with the current injury news baked in. A 2‑1 Blues victory is our early lean, with NSW more likely to win the series but Queensland still dangerous enough to pinch at least one match if they get their selection calls right.

2026 State of Origin Series Schedule

The men’s series will again be played over three Wednesday night blockbusters across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

Game	Matchup	Venue	City	Date	Time
Game 1	NSW vs QLD	Accor Stadium	Sydney	Wednesday 27 May 2026	8:05 PM AEST
Game 2	NSW vs QLD	MCG	Melbourne	Wednesday 17 June 2026	8:05 PM AEST
Game 3	QLD vs NSW	Suncorp Stadium	Brisbane	Wednesday 8 July 2026	8:05 PM AEST

With two games listed as NSW “home” fixtures before a potential decider at Suncorp, venue again plays a huge role in how the series is priced and how punters attack it.

2026 State of Origin Series Odds & Correct Score Tips

With Dearden sidelined and NSW boasting serious depth in key positions, the Blues have been installed as early favourites to win back the shield. Expect NSW to sit in the mid‑$1.60s for the series winner market, with Queensland out past $2.00 as the underdogs.

From a betting perspective, the most realistic correct‑score outcomes are built around 2‑1 either way. Our base case is NSW 2‑1. The Blues have the pack, outside‑back strike and spine upside to win the series more often than not, but Queensland’s Origin pedigree and the Suncorp factor make a sweep unlikely. QLD 2‑1 remains a live option if the Maroons can nail their halves selection and continue to own the big moments, but it sits clearly behind NSW 2‑1 in our early rankings.

NSW 2-1State of Origin SeriesBet Here

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As markets mature, we’ll update this section with live prices and links to more detailed odds breakdowns as well as Game Previews and Tryscorer betting tips.

2026 State of Origin Player of the Series – Wally Lewis Medal Tips

Forwards have had a stranglehold on the Wally Lewis Medal in recent years, with big‑minute middles and locks dominating the count as Origin has become more of a grind in the middle of the field. That trend won’t be lost on selectors or bookmakers, and it should again influence how you attack this market in 2026. NSW are rightly favoured to win the series, and history tells us the winner usually comes from the side that lifts the shield, so that’s where you want most of your exposure.

The eligibility rule changes in 2026 open the door for players like Addin Fonua‑Blake to be in genuine contention for Blues honours. If Fonua‑Blake is picked, he instantly becomes a front‑row wrecking ball that can rack up the kind of metres and impact plays that catch the eye of judges over three matches. For Queensland, a fit and firing Cameron Munster remains the obvious marquee candidate, especially if he is asked to shoulder even more responsibility in a new‑look spine without Dearden.

Our preferred way to play this market is to build a small portfolio: one NSW forward who is likely to play big minutes in all three games, one NSW spine player who can control the series narrative, and one headline Maroons playmaker as cover if Queensland turn the tables. Value will shift once squads are announced, but keep an eye out for prices that don’t yet fully factor in the eligibility expansion and how that can reshape NSW’s middle rotation.

2026 State of Origin FAQ's

When does the 2026 State of Origin series start?

The men’s Origin series kicks off on Wednesday 27 May 2026 at Accor Stadium in Sydney.

Where are the 2026 State of Origin games played?

Game 1 is at Accor Stadium (Sydney), Game 2 at the MCG (Melbourne) and Game 3 at Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane).

Who are favourites to win the 2026 series?

New South Wales are early favourites, priced around $1.65 in the series winner market with Queensland the underdogs after the Dearden injury news.

Have the State of Origin eligibility rules changed?

Yes. The 2026 update separates Origin eligibility from international allegiance, which we’ve explained in detail in our State of Origin eligibility rules guide.