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Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 24 Tips - Cats to cruise past Tigers
Geelong is heavily favored to defeat Richmond in their AFL 2026 Round 24 encounter at GMHBA Stadium. Sporting a five-game winning streak and an impressive offensive record, the Cats are expected to easily cover a -60.5 point spread, with model projections suggesting a 66.9-point victory. Richmond’s depleted squad and low scoring form make them unlikely to challenge, especially given their poor record at Geelong. Bettors are advised to back Geelong and potentially target Richmond to score under 61.5 points. Key player Jay Polkinghorne is tipped for a strong individual performance.
- Geelong expected to win by 66.9 points; strong recent form.
- Richmond averaging just 56.6 points over last 5 matches.
- Best bet: Geelong -60.5 & Richmond under 61.5 points.
- The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, 22nd August, with the bounce at 7:45 PM (AEST).
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL Round 24 Tips
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers, Round 24 2026 - Expert Prediction
Geelong should finish the home-and-away season with a comfortable win over Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, with Geelong -60.5 the best bet. The Cats have won five straight, Richmond have lost four of their past five, and the model projects a 66.9-point Geelong victory.
- Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers, Round 24 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers Team List & Team News
- Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24 FAQs
There is still plenty on the line for the Cats. Geelong sit sixth at 14-8 and can guarantee they avoid the wildcard round with a win, while other results could potentially open the door to a top-four finish. Richmond sit 17th at 3-19 and arrive in Geelong with an increasingly depleted squad.
The scoring gap is difficult to ignore. Geelong have averaged 111.6 points across their past five games, compared with only 56.6 for Richmond. The Tigers have been held below 60 points in four of those five matches, making Richmond under 61.5 points an appealing alternative to simply backing another huge Geelong score.
The model agrees with both angles, projecting a 124.1-57.2 result. That puts Geelong 6.4 points beyond the -60.5 line while Richmond's projected score sits comfortably underneath their 61.5-point team total. Geelong also average 59 inside 50s for the season compared with Richmond's 47, which should create a significant territory advantage.
The concern with such a large handicap is how Geelong approach the second half if the contest is already over. With finals approaching and several players carrying injury concerns, the Cats may not need four quarters at maximum intensity. Even in second gear, however, they should have enough attacking options to continue stretching a Richmond defence that has conceded 94, 105 and 122 points in three of its past five.
Player markets are tougher, but Jay Polkinghorne 3+ goals presents the best option. Polkinghorne kicked three against North Melbourne last week and has now reached three goals in two of his past three appearances. Another dominant Geelong territory game should give him enough opportunities to threaten that mark again.
- Geelong have won five consecutive matches, averaging 111.6 points and a +30.8 margin across that stretch.
- Richmond have scored under 60 points in four of their past five, averaging only 56.6 points.
- The model projects Geelong 124.1-57.2 Richmond, a 66.9-point margin.
- Geelong have won their past three meetings with Richmond, including the past two at GMHBA Stadium by 72 and 30 points.
Head to Head
Geelong Cats have taken control of this matchup recently, winning their past three meetings against Richmond Tigers.
Geelong Cats won by 39 points in Round 24 last season and produced an even more convincing 72-point victory when the teams met at GMHBA Stadium earlier in 2025. That followed a 30-point home victory in 2024.
The venue record makes Richmond Tigers' task even tougher. They have lost their past seven trips to GMHBA Stadium, with their last victory in Geelong coming more than 20 years ago.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong enter Round 24 with five consecutive victories and an average winning margin of 30.8 points across that period. More importantly for the -60.5 line, their attack has remained consistently productive, scoring at least 97 points in all five games.
The Cats are averaging 111.6 points while conceding 80.8 across their past five. They are also generating 62 inside 50s and 31 shots at goal per game over that stretch, numbers that could overwhelm a Richmond side struggling to create sustained pressure at the other end.
Geelong's 125-point performance against North Melbourne last week also showed how quickly they can pile on scores once they gain control. They recovered from a huge early deficit and still finished with 19 goals, with Jay Polkinghorne, Shaun Mannagh and Mark Blicavs all kicking three.
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Richmond's scoring output makes it difficult to build a case for them keeping this close. The Tigers have averaged only 56.6 points across their past five matches, with scores of 45, 54, 73, 48 and 52.
Their only victory during that period came against West Coast, while their four defeats have come by an average of more than 46 points. Last week's 49-point loss to St Kilda continued the trend, with Richmond managing just six goals.
The underlying numbers offer little encouragement heading to GMHBA Stadium. Richmond have averaged only 46.6 inside 50s and 19.6 shots at goal across their past five, leaving them reliant on unusually efficient scoring to push beyond the 61.5-point team total.
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers Team List & Team News
Geelong Cats
Jeremy Cameron, Sam De Koning and Jack Martin return for the Cats. Mark Blicavs has been managed, while Ollie Wiltshire and James Worpel miss through injury.
Richmond Tigers
Kane McAuliffe, Samson Ryan, Maurice Rioli and Campbell Gray come into the Tigers' side. Retiring pair Nathan Broad and Dion Prestia go out, while Sam Lalor is injured and Harry Armstrong has been managed.
| Geelong | POS | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| T. Stewart, C. O'Sullivan, M. O'Connor | B | L. Trainor, B. Miller, K. Annand |
| Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, T. Bruhn | HB | N. Vlastuin, S. Banks, T. Brown |
| O. Dempsey, B. Smith, B. Close | C | P. Retschko, T. Taranto, J. Clarke |
| G. Miers, J. Cameron, S. Mannagh | HF | S. Campbell, S. Green, H. Ralphsmith |
| O. Henry, S. Neale, P. Dangerfield | F | T. Lynch, S. Grlj, M. Lefau |
| M. Edwards, T. Atkins, O. Mullin | FOLL | T. Nankervis, J. Ross, T. Hotton |
| L. Humphries, J. Clark, S. De Koning, J. Martin, J. Polkinghorne | I/C | J. Short, K. McAuliffe, S. Ryan, M. Rioli, C. Gray |
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24 FAQs
- How can I watch Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24?
You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24 game via Fox Footy or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside Australia, the Watch AFL service is the best option for live and on-demand coverage.
- How can I buy tickets for Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24?
To buy tickets for the Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers AFL 2026 Round 24 game, check the official AFL website or the official Geelong Cats website.
Verdict
Geelong will cruise past Richmond and cover the 60.5 points as the favourites holding the cats under 61.5 points. Jay Polkinghorne presents the best value with 3+ goals
Geelong -60.5
Handicap/Line
$1.91 - 2 Units
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Richmond Under 61.5
Team Total
$1.91 - 2 Units
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Jay Polkinghorne
3+ Goals
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