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Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL Round 25 Tips - Panthers backed to bounce back

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026 09:15

The Penrith Panthers, despite a minor dip in form, are predicted to assert dominance over the Melbourne Storm in NRL 2026 Round 25. Having routed Melbourne 50-10 earlier in the season and still boasting the league's strongest defence, Penrith are tipped to cover the -8.5 point spread and surpass 24.5 team points. Tom Jenkins is identified as a likely try scorer, building on his previous performance against Melbourne. Experts highlight Penrith’s superior attack and defence, making them the confident pick at AAMI Park.

Jeremy Darke 1 hour ago
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  • Penrith are backed to cover -8.5 and score 24.5+ points vs Storm
  • Panthers boast top defence & strong attack despite recent losses
  • Tom Jenkins tipped to score after previous Storm success
  • Kick-off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) on Thursday, 20th August at AAMI Park, Melbourne.
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL Round 25 Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers, Round 25 2026 - Expert Prediction


Penrith may be going through their first genuine form slump of the season, but the Panthers remain a level above this Melbourne side and are backed to rediscover their attacking rhythm at AAMI Park.

The Panthers enter Round 25 on consecutive losses to the Warriors and Roosters, having scored just 18 points across those two matches. That is a concern heading towards the finals, but it is difficult to forget what happened when these teams met earlier in the season.

Penrith demolished Melbourne 50-10 in Round 5, and Penrith -8.5 is the preferred line selection for the rematch. The Panthers remain second on the ladder with the competition's best defensive record, while Melbourne sit 11th and have struggled to reproduce the standards expected from them in previous seasons.

There is also a strong case for Penrith Over 24.5 team points. Melbourne's defence remains vulnerable, conceding an average of 28 points across their last three matches. The Panthers rank third for points scored and first for run metres this season, so this shapes as an opportunity for their attack to get back on track after two difficult weeks.

Tom Jenkins Anytime Tryscorer is the player selection. Jenkins crossed twice when Penrith put 50 points on Melbourne earlier this season and should again get opportunities if the Panthers can establish the territorial dominance expected in this matchup.

  • Penrith defeated Melbourne 50-10 when the teams met in Round 5.
  • Melbourne have conceded an average of 28 points across their last three games.
  • Penrith rank third in the NRL for points scored and first for run metres.
  • Tom Jenkins scored two tries against Melbourne earlier this season.

Head to Head


Penrith produced a 50-10 demolition in Round 5, running away with a 40-point victory and providing a strong reference point for the quality gap between these sides in 2026.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis


Melbourne come into Round 25 fresh from the bye after snapping a three-game losing streak with a 42-20 victory over Manly.

That performance demonstrated the attacking threat still available to Craig Bellamy, with Sua Fa'alogo starring as the Storm overturned a 14-0 deficit and scored 42 unanswered points. Cameron Munster is also available after his judiciary charge was downgraded.

However, the wider numbers show why Melbourne remain difficult to trust against the competition's best sides. They have conceded 28, 36 and 20 points across their past three matches and sit just 11th on the ladder after nine wins from 21 games.

Their season-long defensive numbers are also a major contrast to Penrith. Melbourne concede 24 points per game compared with just 14 for the Panthers.

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis


Penrith are experiencing a rare late-season dip after losses to the Warriors and Roosters.

The Panthers were held to six points against Sydney last week and have failed to score in the first half in consecutive matches. Their attack looked disjointed against the Roosters despite repeatedly finding its way into attacking territory.

Those performances should not erase the quality Penrith have shown across the full season. They remain second with 15 wins from 21 matches, average 28 points per game and have conceded only 313 points all year.

The underlying matchup numbers are also strongly in Penrith's favour. They rank first for run metres compared with Melbourne's 15th, while their defence ranks first for points conceded and second for linebreak prevention.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Team News & Team Lists


Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 25 Team List Article.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 25 FAQs

  • How to livestream Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 25?

    You can livestream the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 25 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside Australia, the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

  • How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 25?

    To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 25 game, check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Panthers will find thier form against an old foe, covering the 8.5 points as the favourite by putting up over 24.5 points in the match. Tom Jenkins will cross the line.
Best Bet1: Penrith Panthers -8.5 Handicap/Line $1.91 at BetRaven - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Penrith Over 24.5 Team Total $191.00 at Marantellibet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Tom Jenkins Anytime Tryscorer $1.72 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet4: Tom Jenkins First Tryscorer $7.50 at dabble - 1 Unit
Penrith Panthers -8.5
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