Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 25 Tips - Broncos To Keep It Close
The expert preview for Round 25 of the 2026 NRL season sees the Canberra Raiders take on the Brisbane Broncos. While the Raiders are favored at home and still in finals contention after last week's upset over Cronulla, experts recommend taking the Broncos +10.5, as Canberra rarely wins by wide margins. The Game Total under 51.5 is also suggested, given both sides' recent scoring patterns. With key try scorer tips for Jed Stuart (Raiders) and Xavier Willison (Broncos), plus past head-to-head stats, this matchup is expected to be competitive.
- Experts recommend Broncos +10.5 and Game Total under 51.5.
- Canberra rarely wins by large margins; expect a tight scoreline.
- Jed Stuart (Raiders) & Xavier Willison (Broncos) tipped to score tries.
- Kick off is at 6:00 PM (AEST) on Friday, 21st August at GIO Stadium
Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos
Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 25 2026 - Expert Prediction
The Broncos +10.5 is the best bet, with the Game Total under 51.5 also in play.
- Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 25 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
- Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
- Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos Team News & Team Lists
- Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25 FAQ’s
Canberra probably win this game. They are at home, they are still clinging to a mathematical finals path and last week's upset over Cronulla gives them a pulse. The issue is whether they deserve to be laying double digits against a Broncos side that still has Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan, Ezra Mam, Ben Hunt, Kotoni Staggs and Xavier Willison on the park.
The Raiders have not been a team that routinely blows games open. Even when they have banked wins this season, 6 of their 10 victories have finished inside a 10-point margin, so this number is asking Canberra to win in a way they have not consistently done.
Brisbane's recent results are ugly, but they are still a team that can stay within the line if they clean up the defensive lapses. Last week was a mess against the Warriors, yet the Broncos still had 41 tackles inside the opposition 20 and somehow came away with just one try. That is not sustainable in a normal game script, especially with Ben Hunt now starting at halfback and the Broncos needing to simplify their sets.
Take Brisbane +10.5 and the Game Total under 51.5. Jed Stuart is the Canberra tryscorer play, while Xavier Willison is the Brisbane anytime option after crossing in 3 of his last 5 games.
- Brisbane have lost 12 of their last 13 games, but 6 of their last 10 matches have still finished with a margin of 10 points or fewer, making the +10.5 head start a genuine number play.
- Canberra are alive in the finals race after beating Cronulla 24-20, but 6 of their 10 wins this season have also stayed inside a 10-point margin.
- Jed Stuart has scored 5 tries in his last 5 games.
- Brisbane were held to 6 points last week despite 41 tackles in the opposition 20, so the attacking execution has to improve, but Walsh's absence also supports a more conservative under 51.5 game script.
Head to Head Stats
Canberra have won 2 of the last 5 games against Brisbane, but the margins tell the better story for this betting angle. Four of those 5 meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, including a 29-28 Brisbane win in Canberra last season and a 32-22 Raiders win earlier in 2025.
The Broncos smashed the Raiders 34-10 in 2024, but that is the only recent blowout in this matchup. Canberra's average margin across the last 5 meetings is -4.0, and even though the Raiders are in the better current position, this rivalry has generally lived closer than the market is asking here.
| Raiders Atk Rank | Broncos Def Rank | Stat | Broncos Atk Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 14 | Points | 16 | 11 |
| 13 | 15 | Run Mts | 17 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | Linebreaks | 16 | 12 |
| 7 | 11 | Compl % | 13 | 13 |
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
Canberra kept their season alive with a 24-20 upset over Cronulla last week, and it was one of their better grind-out performances of the season. They led 18-14 at halftime, then Joseph Tapine pushed through 5 defenders in the second half to score the try that ultimately gave them the win.
The concern with Canberra is consistency. They have averaged 31.2 points scored across their last 5 games, but that is dragged up by one huge win, and they rank only 11th in points scored and 13th in Run Mts. The defence is also middle of the pack, ranking 11th in points allowed, so laying a big number still feels dangerous.
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Brisbane's 40-6 loss to the Warriors last week was another low point in a nightmare premiership defence. They trailed 20-0 at halftime, were down 36-0 before Xavier Willison scored in the 64th minute, and lost Reece Walsh to a syndesmosis injury that leaves them reshuffling again.
The weird part is that Brisbane actually created enough field position to be better than the final score. They had 41 tackles in the opposition 20 and an expected set points figure of 28.7, yet only scored once. That points to poor execution, but it also suggests the Broncos are not as hopeless in yardage and territory as the scoreboard made them look.
Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos Team News & Team Lists
Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 25 Team List Article.
Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25 FAQ’s
- How to livestream Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25?
You can livestream the Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25?
To buy tickets to the Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 25 game check the NRL website or the official Canberra Raiders site.
Verdict
Take Brisbane +10.5 and the Game Total under 51.5. Jed Stuart is the Canberra tryscorer play, while Xavier Willison is the Brisbane anytime option after crossing in 3 of his last 5 games.
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