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Jesse's AFL Round 24 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026 09:59

Jesse Mclure 2 hours ago

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Jesse tips every AFL Round 24 game with predicted margins.
Highlights include big upsets for Carlton and North Melbourne.
Key games to impact finals spots and top-four finishes.

True Footy's Just the Tips (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Jesse's AFL Round 24 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

The final round of the 2026 AFL home-and-away season is here, and while the top 10 has been decided, there is still plenty riding on Round 24.

Jesse's AFL Round 24 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match
St Kilda vs Gold Coast Prediction
Collingwood vs Brisbane Prediction
Carlton vs Fremantle Prediction
Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Prediction
Geelong vs Richmond Prediction
Adelaide vs GWS Giants Prediction
Essendon vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Sydney vs North Melbourne Prediction
West Coast vs Hawthorn Prediction

The exact finals matchups remain up for grabs, Hawthorn still needs to secure its top-four position, and Brisbane, Melbourne, Geelong and Adelaide all have something to play for before September begins. Jesse is also going rogue with a few late-season upsets, including Carlton against the minor premiers and North Melbourne against Sydney.

Here are Jesse's tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 24 game.

St Kilda vs Gold Coast Prediction

There might not be finals on the line, but St Kilda still has an opportunity to finish its season on a positive note at Marvel Stadium.

Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is expected to remain sidelined and the Saints have other injury concerns, while Gold Coast has at least shown signs of improvement late in the year. The Suns remain incredibly difficult to trust away from home, though, and St Kilda's record at Marvel gives it the edge.

Jesse's Tip: St Kilda by 7 points

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Collingwood vs Brisbane Prediction

Brisbane still has plenty to play for, with a win strengthening its chances of finishing third and avoiding a trip to Optus Stadium in the opening week of the finals.

Collingwood's recent football has been impressive, and the availability of Nick Daicos could be significant with suggestions the Magpies may manage players before their wildcard fixture. Jesse expects Brisbane to approach this like a finals game, though, and the Lions have repeatedly shown an ability to deliver when the stakes rise.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane by 37 points

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Carlton vs Fremantle Prediction

This is Jesse's major upset play of the round.

Fremantle has already secured the minor premiership after an excellent win over Adelaide and could use Round 24 to manage players such as Alex Pearce before the finals. Carlton, meanwhile, has plenty of momentum and could improve its wildcard matchup with a victory.

Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have helped drive Carlton's resurgence, and the Blues may simply enter this game with more urgency.

Jesse's Tip: Carlton by 5 points

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Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Melbourne's top-four hopes remain alive, making this a huge final-round clash at the MCG.

The Bulldogs beat the Demons at Marvel Stadium earlier in the year and could regain Marcus Bontempelli, although Tim English remains a concern. Melbourne carries significantly more momentum into the rematch and has been a far more imposing side at the MCG.

With so much riding on the result, the Demons should deliver.

Jesse's Tip: Melbourne Demons by 27 points

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Geelong vs Richmond Prediction

Geelong couldn't have asked for a better final-round matchup at GMHBA Stadium.

Richmond showed some encouraging passages against St Kilda but struggled to finish its work, and facing the Cats in Geelong represents a massive step up. Geelong still has finals positioning to consider and should be able to control this game from the outset.

This has all the ingredients for one of the biggest margins of Round 24.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong by 77 points

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Adelaide vs GWS Giants Prediction

Don't dismiss this as an easy Adelaide victory.

GWS has been one of the most unpredictable sides in the competition and remains capable of producing elite football despite being out of finals contention. Jordan Dawson and the Crows have the home-ground advantage and more to play for, but the Giants' ability to travel and score quickly makes this a genuine danger game.

Jesse is sticking with Adelaide, but expects it to be close.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide by 6 points

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Essendon vs Port Adelaide Prediction

The wooden spoon could be decided in one of Jesse's biggest curveball tips of the weekend.

Port Adelaide is clearly the stronger side on paper, but its season has fallen away and the absence of Zak Butters leaves another major hole. Essendon has been forced to blood plenty of young players, and Jesse expects Dean Solomon's side to attack its final game rather than worry about securing the No.1 draft pick.

At Marvel Stadium, the Bombers could produce one final upset.

Jesse's Tip: Essendon by 1 point

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Sydney vs North Melbourne Prediction

This is another major upset call, with Jesse backing North Melbourne to finish its improved season with a memorable victory.

The transcript notes Sydney is expected to be without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, James Jordon, Riley Bice and Nick Blakey, significantly changing the football equation. North, meanwhile, pushed Geelong hard and has consistently shown a greater ability to compete with the AFL's stronger teams this season.

With the Swans missing several important players, the Kangaroos get the nod.

Jesse's Tip: North Melbourne by 15 points

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West Coast vs Hawthorn Prediction

The final game of the home-and-away season could carry enormous consequences for Hawthorn's top-four position.

West Coast will want to send Jamie Cripps out strongly, but the Eagles remain well behind Hawthorn on exposed form. Jai Newcombe and the Hawks have the quality to take control as the game progresses, particularly with their finals position potentially depending on both the result and percentage.

Jesse expects West Coast to compete early before Hawthorn pulls away.

Jesse's Tip: Hawthorn by 49 points