2026 NRL State of Origin Series

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2026 State of Origin NSW vs QLD Game 1 First Try Scorer Tips - Who will get the first try in Game 1 of Origin

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Mon 25 May 2026 20:43

Jeremy Darke 25 May 2026

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Historical stats favour wingers and centres as first try scorers.
Top picks for Game 1: Brian To’o (NSW), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD), and Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW).
Olakau’atu is a value roughie for those seeking an upset in first try scorer bets.

2026 State of Origin NSW vs QLD Game 1 First Try Scorer Tips

I’m not sure if there is anything better than picking the first try scorer of any footy match and that feeling only enhances if you can nail the first of Game 1 in an Origin series.

2026 State of Origin NSW vs QLD Game 1 First Try Scorer Tips
First Try Scorer Predictions
Brian To’o (NSW)
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)
Hamiso Tabuai-FidowFirst Try ScorerBET HERE
Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW)

As usual, we have crunched the numbers, checked the history books trying to give us a chance to nail the First Try Scorer market off the bat in the 2026 State of Origin Series.

Obviously it is the outside backs that have dominated this market and in 2025 both NSW wingers (Lomax & To’o) crossed the line first in Games 1 and 2 and Queensland’s Xavier Coates got the Maroons off to the best start in Game 3.

In the 27 games played in the last 8 years, a Queensland has scored the first try 14 times, a New South Welshman 13 times
NSW have scored the first try in Game One in 7 of the previous 9 years.
The centres (9) and wingers (10) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once.

Will it be another winger or will we see a forward crash over. Below are bets.com.au’s best three picks for the State of Origin First Try Scorer market.

Check out our Game 1 Match Predictions and Man of the Match picks by following their links.

First Try Scorer Predictions

Brian To’o (NSW)

Brian To'oFirst Try ScorerBET HERE

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If you do not have Brian To’o in your first try scorer repertoire then you are not taking it seriously. The Blues winger scored 5 tries in 2025, scoring in each match, the first try and getting a triple in Game 2.

It may be a little bit “quieter” year in Penrith with 7 tries in 11 games with all of the attention on Jenkins but the nuggetty No. 2 is still getting it done when needed at the foot of the mountain.

To’o is the favourite for a reason so don’t leave him out.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (QLD)

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowFirst Try ScorerBET HERE
The dabble.com.au referral code is BETSAU. 18+. T&Cs apply.

The Hammer is back in the centres for Queensland for Game 1 after playing 3 different positions for the Maroons in last year’s series. Tabuai-Fidow played Game 1 in the No. 4 jersey last season and has played the majority of his Origin games on the edge.

The Dolphins fullback has a strike-rate of over one try per game at Origin level and will be keen to add to the 11 tries he has in the Maroon jersey.

Haumole Olakau’atu (NSW)

Haumole Olakau’atuFirst Try ScorerBET HERE

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With the speed of the game quicker than ever under the new six-again rules making tired forwards an even larger target after repeat sets, Haumole Olakau’atu is a big chance to break this game open early.

The Manly second-rower has been a big part of the Sea Eagles success under Keiren Foran and he will look to repay Laurie Daly for his inclusion in the squad by running the ball as much as possible.

Look for Olakau’atu to pick out slower forwards and the smaller defenders and split through the line, especially if there is a chance of a try inside the red zone.

Verdict

2026 State of Origin Game 1

To’o and the Hammer are always a big chance but Haumole Olakau’atu is a decent roughie for the first try scorer of Origin 1

Brian To'o

First Try Scorer

$8.50 - 1 Unit

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Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

First Try Scorer

$13.00 - 1 Unit

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Haumole Olakau’atu

First Try Scorer

$17.00 - 1 Unit

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