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QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL State of Origin Game 3 Tips - QLD’s youngsters keep it tight
The NSW Blues Women have already secured the 2026 State of Origin series after narrow wins in the first two games. Despite their losses, Queensland's Maroons Women have been competitive and are predicted to cover a +9.5 handicap in Game 3, which is expected to be another low-scoring encounter. A key betting trend is that most Women’s Origin matches stay under 35.5 total points. NSW’s elite defence has restricted QLD to just 16 points in the series. With several Queensland injuries, new talent will feature, while NSW remain largely unchanged. Jessica Sergis is a strong tip to score again.
- Queensland tipped to cover +9.5 in another tight, low-scoring match
- Seven of last nine Women's Origin games were under 35.5 points
- Jessica Sergis predicted to score for NSW again
- Kick off is at 7:45 PM (AEST) at Cbus Super Stadium
QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women, State of Origin Game 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
Queensland look the best value play in Game 3 with the Maroons capable of staying within the +9.5 handicap in another tight and defensive Women’s Origin battle.
- QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women, State of Origin Game 3 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- QLD Maroons Women Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- QLD Maroons Women Team News
- QLD Maroons Women Team List
- NSW Blues Women Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- NSW Blues Women Team News
- NSW Blues Women Team List
Despite losing the opening two matches of the series, Queensland have been highly competitive throughout, falling 11-6 in Newcastle before suffering a heartbreaking 14-10 defeat at Suncorp Stadium after Jasmine Peters was ruled into touch by millimetres in the final moments.
The strongest betting trend throughout the modern Women’s Origin era continues to be low-scoring contests and the under 35.5 points again shapes as one of the best plays on the board.
Seven of the last nine Women’s Origin matches have gone under 35.5 total points, while the opening two games of this series produced totals of just 17 and 24 points. Queensland have scored only 16 points across the first two matches, while NSW’s elite defensive structure continues to control games in pressure situations.
Queensland have shown enough to suggest the line is slightly too large. Errors and poor completions have repeatedly hurt the Maroons, yet they have still remained within striking distance late in both matches.
Go back to the well in the try scoring market with the right side attack of the Blues favoured with Jessica Sergis crossing for a try in Game 2 making it 4 in her last 5.
- Queensland have lost both games this series by 5 points or fewer.
- Seven of the last nine Women’s Origin matches have gone under 35.5 points.
- NSW have conceded just 16 total points across the series
- NSW have scored 3 of their 5 tries on right side of their attack.
Head to Head
NSW lead the all-time Women’s Origin rivalry 11-6 and have won four of the last five meetings.
The Blues secured the 2026 series with victories of 11-6 and 14-10 in the opening two games.
QLD Maroons Women Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Queensland’s performances have been far better than their results suggest. The Maroons have consistently matched NSW physically but have continually hurt themselves through handling errors and poor discipline.
In Game 2, Queensland completed at just 57 per cent and made 16 errors, yet still nearly forced extra time in the dying moments.
Young players like Rory Owen and Chantay Kiria-Ratu have impressed throughout the series, while Keilee Joseph and Otesa Pule continue to provide strong middle-third impact.
QLD Maroons Women Team News
Queensland have been forced into several major changes for Game 3 following injuries suffered in Brisbane.
Captain Tamika Upton, star winger Julia Robinson and forward Makenzie Weale have all been ruled out after picking up injuries during the Game 2 loss at Suncorp Stadium.
Their absences have opened the door for a new-look Maroons side featuring fresh young talent, with Destiny Mino-Sinapati and Lillian Yarrow both set to make their Women’s State of Origin debuts.
QLD Maroons Women Team List
1. Destiny Mino-Sinapati
2. Shenae Ciesiolka
3. Rory Owen
4. Ivana Lolesio
5. Jasmine Peters
6. Chantay Kiria-Ratu
7. Lauren Brown (c)
8. Otesa Pule
9. Destiny Brill
10. Jessika Elliston
11. Sienna Lofipo
12. Romy Teitzel
13. Keilee Joseph
Interchange
14. Emma Manzelmann
15. Brianna Clark
16. Lillian Yarrow
17. Jada Ferguson
Reserves
18. Chelsea Lenarduzzi
19. Sophie Holyman
20. Georgia Ravics
NSW Blues Women Form Analysis & Betting Trends
NSW’s defence has been the defining factor of the series.
The Blues have conceded just 16 total points across two games and continue to deliver in clutch moments, with Jesse Southwell and Teagan Berry producing crucial try-saving plays in Brisbane.
Southwell has controlled the series brilliantly from halfback and remains the key figure in NSW’s attack.
NSW Blues Women Team News
NSW have retained the same 20-player squad that secured the series victory in Brisbane, with only minor positional reshuffles ahead of Game 3 on the Gold Coast.
Olivia Higgins moves into the starting hooker role after wearing jersey No.14 in Game 2, while Keeley Nizza shifts back to the interchange bench despite scoring a crucial try at Suncorp Stadium.
NSW Blues Women Team List
1. Abbi Church
2. Jaime Chapman
3. Jessica Sergis
4. Isabelle Kelly (c)
5. Jayme Fressard
6. Jocelyn Kelleher
7. Jesse Southwell
8. Millie Elliott
9. Olivia Higgins
10. Ellie Johnston
11. Kezie Apps
12. Yasmin Meakes
13. Olivia Kernick
Interchange
14. Keeley Nizza
15. Kennedy Cherrington
16. Rima Butler
17. Teagan Berry
Reserves
18. Quincy Dodd
19. Corban Baxter
20. Hannah Southwell
QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL 2025 Round State of Origin FAQ’s
How to watch QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL 2025 Round State of Origin?
You can watch the QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL 2025 Round State of Origin game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL 2025 Round State of Origin?
To buy tickets to the QLD Maroons Women vs NSW Blues Women NRL 2025 Round State of Origin game check the NRL website or the official QLD Maroons Women site.
Verdict
QLD’s young squad will keep the Maroons in the contest and cover in another low scoring match. Jessica Sergis will score for the third time this series.
Queensland +9.5
Handicap/Line
$1.91 - 2 Units
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Under 35.5
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Jessica Sergis
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