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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 26 Tips - Storm to Give Broncos Suncorp Surprise

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: Tue 25 Aug 2026 08:59

The final matchup of the NRL 2026 regular season at Suncorp sees the Brisbane Broncos hosting the Melbourne Storm. While both teams have underperformed due to injuries and inconsistency, Melbourne's statistical edge—especially in defense and recent head-to-head performances at Suncorp—makes them strong road favorites. The recommendation is to back the Storm to cover -2.5 points, with chances for a 13+ margin. Moses Leo and Harry Grant are strong anytime tryscorer picks. The Broncos' struggles in defense, particularly through the middle, are expected to continue.

Ryan Tucker 1 hour ago
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  • Melbourne Storm favored to win and cover -2.5 at Suncorp.
  • Broncos' defense expected to struggle, Storm likely to exploit the middle.
  • Moses Leo and Harry Grant tipped as anytime tryscorers.
  • Kick off is at 7:50 PM (AEST) on Thursday, 27th August at Suncorp Stadium
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm
Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm


Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm, Round 26 2026 - Expert Prediction


The final game of the season at Suncorp for the Broncos and whilst they are no longer at risk of getting the wooden spoon, this will not be a happy finish for them at home. Melbourne are tipped to win and cover the short line as the road favourite.

This season is a write off for both of these teams. Brisbane coming off their first Premiership win since 2006 were early favourites to go back to back, but injuries and inconsistent football derailed their season early.

Melbourne similarly have been the beacon of consistency in recent years, losing two grand finals in a row and not missing finals since 2010, they were also expected to be competing for another title. Injuries to their spine and outside backs as well as a turnover in players saw them lose 7 straight early in the season, making the late charge for finals almost impossible.

Both of these teams still have world class players on their roster and there is no doubt the coaching ranks will be trying their hardest to finish the season on a high to push positivity into the off-season and 2027. But based on the stats, primarily defensive, Brisbane will likely have trouble keeping the Storm out.

Melbourne’s record at Suncorp, coupled with their advantages in Run Metres and completion rate should see them put enough points past Brisbane. Once the tries start rolling, there is every chance we see the Broncos put the cue in the rack just as they have done in recent weeks allowing an average of 35 pts over their last 4 games.

Take Melbourne to cover -2.5, also sprinkle Storm to win 13+, Moses Leo and Harry Grant as anytime tryscorers.

  • Melbourne are 19-5 all time vs Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium and have won 6 of the last 8 games played there.
  • Brisbane have allowed 30+ points to opponents in 4 straight games while 7 of their 15 losses this year have been by 13+ pts.
  • Moses Leo has scored 3 tries in his last 3 games and in 9 of 15 appearances this season.
  • The Broncos have allowed 32% of opposition tries through the middle this season, the most of any team in the league.

Head to Head 


Brisbane have won 3 straight games against Melbourne, including last year’s Grand Final. But Melbourne have won 6 of the last 8 matchups at Suncorp and lead the regular season head to head 12-2 since the start of the 2019 season.

More often than not during that span, the winning margin has been in double digits.

Broncos Atk RankStorm Def RankStatStorm Atk Rank
Broncos Def Rank
169Points914
179Run Mts1515
1615Linebreaks910
128Compl %311

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis 


The Broncos were able to overcome an 18-16 halftime deficit aswell as a 23rd minute Pat Carrigan sin-bin in their 34-30 win over Canberra last weekend at GIO stadium. The win ensured they are not able to finish last on the table but with only 7 wins this season, the fanbase has been left wanting more.

Brisbane rank 16th for points, 17th in Run Metres, 16th in Linebreaks and complete at the 12th best rate in the NRL. Defensively they are 10th or worst in the same metrics. 

Against the Raiders they managed only 10 tackles inside the Raiders 20m zone, pointing to the difficulty they have in gaining yardage. 

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis 


The Storm’s slim hopes of making finals were dashed last week with a 22-14 loss to the Penrith Panthers. They can finish as high as 9th but with only 9 wins from 22 games up until now, this will at the very best go down as the 2nd worst season in the club's history. 

Melbourne went down 22-0 in the first half against the Panthers with 5 errors and 4 penalties gifting the visitors valuable territory and possession. They managed to turn the tables in the 2nd half with 64% of possession and 70% of territory but despite 3 Panthers players being sinbinned they were only able to post 14 pts.

The Storm attack has been able to match it with most opposition this season but the once impenetrable defence was lacking with an average opponent score of over 24pts throughout the year.

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Team List & Team News


Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 26 Team List Article.

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 26 FAQ’s

  • How to livestream Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 26?

    You can livestream the Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 26 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

  • How to buy tickets to Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 26?

    To buy tickets to the Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL 2026 Round 26 game check the NRL website or the official Brisbane Broncos site.

Verdict

Take Melbourne to cover -2.5, also sprinkle Storm to win 13+, Moses Leo and Harry Grant as anytime tryscorers.
Best Bet4: Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer $3.90 at Neds (BLACKBOOK) - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Melbourne 13+ Winning Margin $3.25 at picklebet (BETSAU) Betsau only - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Moses Leo Anytime Tryscorer $2.05 at dabble (BETSAU) - 1 Unit
Best Bet1: Melbourne -2.5 Line $1.90 at Betraven (bets500) - 3 Units
Harry Grant
Anytime Tryscorer
$3.90 - 1 Unit

Bet at Neds (BLACKBOOK)
Melbourne 13+
Winning Margin
$3.25 - 1 Unit

Bet at picklebet (BETSAU) Betsau only
Moses Leo
Anytime Tryscorer
$2.05 - 1 Unit

Bet at dabble (BETSAU)
Melbourne -2.5
Line
$1.90 - 3 Units

Bet at Betraven (bets500)

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