The nine-race card blends Group-level features with evenly matched handicaps, giving punters plenty of depth and variety to work with.
Race 1 - 1:00PM TCL Trophy Tips (1700m)
A competitive opener on VRC Oaks Day. At an each-way price is 8. I Only Wish. She has worked to the line nicely in two slowly run 1400m races to begin the spring, and getting to 1700m looks ideal third-up on Thursday.
The Robbie Griffiths-trained galloper broke through third-up over a mile back in autumn before taking out a BM64, then held that form with back-to-back seconds at Caulfield in Saturday company. Both runs were in the mile range before a fourth of sixteen at Flemington prior to a spell.
13. House Of Lords has shown talent in five starts to date, with a win and two seconds from her first campaign before resuming with a stylish Sale victory on September 14. She appeared plain second-up at Pakenham, though the closing sectionals told another story with the second-fastest last 200m of the race.
15. Navy Heart comes out of the same event and finished third there, with 1700m now fourth-up looking a suitable progression. The winning strike rate isn’t flash, but she mixed with good company as a three-year-old, and this grade looks suitable.
A bolter could be 3. Expeetee, whose fresh run was better than it reads before being outclassed at Group 3 level. Just fair last time, but capable of improvement.
Selections: 2, 8, 6, 9.
Race 2 - 1:35PM RDA Subzero Handicap Tips (1400m)
There’s generally never much in-between with 5. Getafix, with the hot-and-cold grey arriving here off two plain performances in October. There was a similar lead-up in autumn before a freshen-up, and he bounced back with a big win in June before going back-to-back with a rise in grade at Randwick.
That first June victory was under James McDonald, with the champion hoop taking back the reins here third-up, and during his last Melbourne visit as an early three-year-old, he won a handy form race over this trip at Caulfield.
2. Cloudland has to be a contender if Getafix is in contention, having comfortably beaten that galloper when resuming on October 4, and the seven-year-old has since completed a tick-over trial at Rosehill.
He handles all conditions, and while the wide gate is an obvious knock for 12. Feeling Dusty first-up, aside from a green debut, he’s been very consistent with two wins and three seconds from his last five starts.
Not sure what to do with 1. Statuario, a very classy horse, but he’s now back to 1400m after two 2000m runs, and that sharp drop makes him hard to assess.
Selections: 5, 2, 12, 1.
Race 3 - 2:10PM Inglis Bracelet Tips (1600m)
The set weights and penalties for this fillies and mares feature lean towards those at the top of the ratings being best suited, and 2. Verona Rose is firmly among that group. While staying at 1600m is a query, her class should take her a long way in a field like this.
She was given a negative ride in the Group 3 Angst Stakes and, without threatening, still worked home soundly, while her only plain effort this campaign came in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap third-up, where she wasn’t disgraced.
Prior to the Epsom, Verona Rose had been beaten by 1. Oh Diamond Lil in the Group 3 Tibbie Stakes at Newcastle, though the David Pfeiffer-trained galloper had all favours that day, and there’s now a 2kg weight swing in Verona Rose’s favour from that clash.
Oh Diamond Lil could find a soft lead on paper, and 4. Keep Your Cool heads the market, which is perhaps a little surprising given her main form references are in benchmark grade compared to the stakes-class opposition here, but she’s very consistent.
6. Sneaky Sunrise can improve third-up, although she’ll need to lift, yet it’s worth noting most of her best form has come at Flemington with two wins and three placings from six starts at this track.
Selections: 2, 1, 4, 6.
Race 4 - 2:45PM Good Friday Appeal Trophy Tips (1800m)
Half a kilo over the minimum is 11. Shockletz, who carries 3.5kg less than when winning first-up at Sandown, where she proved too classy for a midweek field. She showed her versatility throughout her three-year-old season with a 2000m win at Flemington and a 2500m triumph here, building a strong and progressive record.
The scratching of Zambardo is a big tick for her chances, and she’s likely to start favourite as a result.
7. Liberami was doing his best work late in the Seymour Cup for fourth, and that form has stacked up nicely, with the first and third from that race both franking it in the Sale Cup, while the runner-up St George just missed at Listed level on Melbourne Cup Day.
For a smoky or those chasing a blowout, 15. Vellasmachine fits the bill. He’s been mixing his form but has enough talent, and the blinkers plus a sharper jump-out since his last run could bring a turnaround.
9. Al Duca is no world-beater but is hard fit, honest, and drops massively in the weights, carrying 7kg less than his latest assignment, and he’ll land straight on the speed from a low draw.
Selections: 11, 7, 15, 9.
Race 5 - 3:20PM Channel 9 Chester Manifold Stakes Tips (1600m)
A very open affair, with 8. Poison Chalice continuing to test punters’ patience. He’s long looked a raw type capable of progressing with time, but that development hasn’t quite arrived, even if he’s produced some solid performances along the way. He was a beaten favourite in this race last year.
The son of Savabeel resumed in the Gawler Cup, where he was well supported, and with 60kg he produced the fastest last 200m of the race, won by Air Assault, who recorded a huge win at Listed level on Tuesday. If James McDonald can’t get the best out of him, it’s hard to know who will.
10. Enxuto backs up from Derby Day, which was another strong performance from the gelding, who’s building nicely across three runs this preparation, and getting to 1600m now looks ideal. His last victory came over this track and trip back in March, and he’s been in career-best form this year.
2. Detonator Jack isn’t the easiest horse to catch, but he’s hard fit and comes here off a solid Randwick effort on October 18, with 4kg less to carry this time.
6. Oh Too Good might simply not be suited to Moonee Valley. Both poor runs this campaign have come at that circuit, while she bolted in at Caulfield prior to her Crystal Mile attempt, and just missed here first-up in a strong form race.
Selections: 8, 10, 2, 6.
Race 6 - 3:55PM Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final Tips (1600m)
A wide-open betting market, which is no surprise for the Country Final. It’s a big field, and some of the leading chances have drawn out, adding another layer of difficulty to an already deep contest.
One of the single-figure hopes is 2. Kengero. The obvious query is second-up off a long break, especially given the big starting price fresh at Seymour, but that was a cracking return, and he moved stylishly in a subsequent jump-out win at Pakenham.
The Charlotte Littlefield-trained galloper carries 5kg less from that October 12 resumption and now gets the in-form Mark Zahra aboard.
At longer odds, 13. Gunado appeals as a genuine knockout chance. He found the line as well as anything in the Horsham heat when finishing sixth-of-eleven, before running second at Sale when backed in the market — another solid performance — and while he’s yet to win beyond 1200m, he’s going very well for a horse who is $60+ in early markets.
6. Guerite has won two of three this spring, including the Bendigo heat on Cup Day where she defeated 11. Big Sexy. A progressive and lightly raced mare, she looks ready to measure up again, though wide gates have undone plenty of favourites in this race before — including Oh Too Good in last year’s edition.
Selections: 2, 13, 6, 11.
Race 7 - 4:30PM Crown Red Roses Stakes Tips (1100m)
In a strong edition of the Roses, it’ll be fascinating to see how 7. Point Barrow handles her first attempt down the straight. The daughter of Blue Point is still a work in progress, but her ability is clear, winning three of four starts this campaign.
Her only miss came earlier in the prep when running the second-fastest last 200m of the entire Manikato Stakes program, before bouncing back with a strong win on Caulfield Guineas Day. She did herself no favours there by going right back and looping the field from last, yet still put the race away late despite shifting in noticeably. She might still be a preparation away from fully furnishing, but it could be scary if the penny drops on Thursday.
10. Surf’s Up has to come into calculations coming out of the same race as Point Barrow. She wasn’t far behind in second, which followed a Sydney breakthrough, and James McDonald stays aboard.
1. Inkaruna gets blinkers on after an even showing in the Danehill, which produced the trifecta of the Coolmore Stud Stakes — great reading for a fillies race. She was good prior to that when resuming over this track and trip.
13. Cantiamo beat Surf’s Up in a Warwick Farm BM64 before a short break and is an interesting runner here first-up.
Selections: 7, 10, 1, 13.
Race 8 - 5:10PM Crown Oaks Tips (2500m)
The traditional form line through the Wakeful Stakes appears the strongest, and 1. Getta Good Feeling was a soft winner of that lead-up. Two starts back, she should’ve put a bigger margin on Just A Journey in the Edward Manifold Stakes, and both efforts confirmed she’s the benchmark filly heading into the Oaks.
Her campaign has unfolded perfectly, peaking at the right time. After breaking through at Group 2 level in the Edward Manifold, she stepped up in trip and handled Flemington with authority last Saturday. Prior to that, her third in the Thousand Guineas showed she could measure up in strong company, and her recent Wakeful success stamped her as the one to beat again.
12. Classic Gem brings the Caulfield form reference, where Spicy Lu and Just A Journey held off both her and After Summer in the Ethereal Stakes. That quartet cleared right out from their rivals over 2000m, and each produced a solid Oaks trial in the process. Despite her dam’s sprinting pedigree — she’s closely related to five-time Group 1 winner Lankan Rupee — the influence of her sire Maurice suggests the 2500m will suit. She profiles as a filly that will appreciate building momentum on the spacious Flemington track.
From the beaten brigade in the Wakeful, 7. Strictly Business was the only one making any impression late behind Getta Good Feeling. She may have been slightly flattered by the rails run but was jumping from 1400m to 2000m and was only second-up following a strong return win. With added fitness and that grounding now, she looks capable of further improvement over the staying journey.
Sydney form often stacks up in the Oaks, and 2. The Pearls brings that angle after finishing third in the Spring Champion Stakes. She only whacked away late there, but the winner Attica looks smart, and the form reads well back to fillies’ company.
Selections: 1, 12, 7, 2.
Race 9 - 5:50PM NYE at Flemington Century Stakes Tips (1000m)
There should be improvement to come from Nadal, who was well supported first-up in the Caulfield Sprint and loomed ominously before fitness gave out late. That was no surprise given he was resuming off a long layoff, having been scratched several times in the weeks prior. He’s also accepted for a 1200m event on Champions Stakes Day, which looks a deeper race but may be the better trip.
If Nadal doesn’t go around, 1. Rey Magnerio could start even shorter. He overcame traffic to win the Caulfield Sprint and has never finished outside the money when second-up, while his Flemington record is sound. The inside draw up the straight is a small query, but being the last race of the day, punters will know how the track is playing. He deserves favouritism off consistent form.
At a price, 9. Interest Point could be worth some thought following a dominant Ballarat victory last start, arriving here fit and ready. His only prior straight-track attempt was fair.
12. Manolo Bling resumes with strong fresh stats, having won twice first-up — including a straight-track victory on Melbourne Cup Day last year. She also beat a handy Tropicus in a recent jump-out.
7. Harry Got Styles doesn’t go past 1000m, so dropping back from 1100m suits. He was honest at Caulfield last start, and his last two straight-track runs have had merit.
Selections: 1, 9, 12, 7.