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Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 11 Tips - Tigers a chance to steal another
Richmond Tigers and Essendon Bombers, both 1-9 for the season, face off in what’s expected to be a high-scoring, closely contested match at the MCG. Both teams have major defensive concerns, with Essendon regularly conceding over 100 points and Richmond also struggling to contain opposition attacks. Recent meetings have been tight, and expert predictions point toward the over for total points and Richmond’s Jacob Hopper standing out for disposals. With key injuries affecting both teams, expect another close battle with plenty of goals.
- Both teams enter Round 11 with only 1 win and defensive struggles.
- Expect a high-scoring, close game; over 175.5 points is tipped.
- Jacob Hopper projected for 25+ disposals for Richmond.
- The game will be played at MCG on Friday, 22nd May, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 11 Tips
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
This shapes as a surprisingly open game between two struggling sides that continue to concede scores at an alarming rate.
- Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers Team List & News
- Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s
Richmond and Essendon both sit 1-9 entering Round 11, but neither team has shown much ability to slow opposition ball movement or defend transition over the past month. That creates a strong setup for the over 175.5 total points line, especially at the MCG where both teams generally play with more attacking freedom.
Essendon has now conceded 100+ points in seven of its 10 games this season, while Richmond has allowed 98 or more points in four of its past five matches. Both backlines are undermanned, inexperienced and vulnerable once opposition teams move the ball quickly through midfield.
While the Bombers have generally generated more scoring opportunities, Richmond’s younger lineup continues to play aggressively and take risks through the corridor, often leading to high-scoring games at both ends.
The recent head-to-head numbers also support a closer contest than the ladder suggests. Three of the last four meetings between these clubs have been decided by 23 points or fewer, including Richmond’s low-scoring nine-point win late last season.
Jacob Hopper also stands out in the disposal markets. The Richmond midfielder has taken on a much bigger role through the centre square in recent weeks and projects strongly against an Essendon midfield that continues to allow heavy possession numbers.
- Three of the last four meetings between Essendon & Richmond have been decided by 23 points or fewer.
- Essendon has conceded 100+ points in seven of 10 games this season.
- Richmond has conceded 98+ points in four of its last five games.
- Jacob Hopper is projected well above his disposal line.
Head to Head Stats
Recent meetings between these sides have generally been competitive despite both clubs sitting near the bottom of the ladder.
Richmond won a scrappy low-scoring contest by nine points in Round 18 last season, while Essendon claimed the earlier 2025 meeting by 23 points. The Bombers also won by 12 points in 2024 and by a single point in 2023.
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Richmond remains bottom of the ladder at 1-9, but the Tigers have shown gradual improvement over the past month despite the results not fully reflecting it.
The Tigers pushed Adelaide for a half before fading late two weeks ago and were again competitive in patches against St Kilda last round before eventually losing by 36 points. Richmond’s biggest issue continues to be sustaining pressure and defensive structure for four quarters once games open up.
Against the Saints, Richmond struggled badly early as St Kilda dominated territory and inside 50s, but the Tigers still found periods where their younger forwards generated momentum and scoreboard pressure. Liam Fawcett kicked three goals, Noah Roberts-Thomson booted two on debut, while Jack Ross and Tim Taranto again worked hard through midfield.
The concern remains defensively. Richmond is allowing 110.2 points per game across its last five matches and continues to struggle against quick ball movement once opponents gain territory dominance.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon enters Round 11 on a five-game losing streak and continues to battle severe defensive issues.
The Bombers were heavily beaten by Fremantle last round, trailing by 52 points at half-time before recovering slightly after the main break in wet conditions at the MCG. The biggest issue for Essendon remains defensive transition. The Bombers are conceding easy scores from stoppage and turnover situations, while opposition teams continue to move the ball far too easily through the corridor.
The combination of Essendon’s attacking capability and defensive struggles continues to create high-scoring games.
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers Team List & News
Richmond Tigers Team News
Richmond’s injury problems continue to grow heading into Dreamtime at the ‘G.
Mykelti Lefau returns after being managed, while Jasper Alger also comes back into the side. Campbell Gray is injured and Liam Fawcett omitted.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Ben McKay, Jade Gresham, Matt Guelfi and Tom Edwards all return for Dreamtime at the ‘G. Peter Wright is injured, while Nik Cox and Will Setterfield have been dropped.
| Richmond | POS | Essendon |
|---|---|---|
| N. Broad, B. Miller, L. Trainor | B | B. McKay, Z. Reid, A. McGrath |
| N. Vlastuin, J. Short, S. Grlj | HB | A. Roberts, M. Redman, J. Farrow |
| P. Retschko, T. Taranto, T. Sonsie | C | X. Duursma, D. Parish, A. Day-Wicks |
| N. Roberts-Thomson, S. Campbell, S. Green | HF | J. Caldwell, N. Caddy, S. Robey |
| J. Faull, T. Lynch, M. Lefau | F | A. May, K. Langford, A. Perkins |
| N. Balta, J. Ross, S. Cumming | FOLL | N. Bryan, Z. Merrett, S. Durham |
| O. Hayes-Brown, J. Alger, J. Trezise, J. Hopper, T. Burton | I/C | J. Gresham, J. Prior, M. Guelfi, T. Edwards, L. Blakiston |
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s
How to watch Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11?
You can watch the Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11?
To buy tickets to the Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond Tigers site.
Verdict
This is expected to be another tight one which means the Tigers could steal it. Expect goals from both sides and the over to hit with Jacob Hooper having 25+ disposals in the middle for the Tigers.
Richmond +13.5
Handicap/Line
$1.91 - 2 Units
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Over 177.5
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Jacob Hooper
25+ Disposals
$2.55 - 1 Unit
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