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Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues AFL Round 11 Tips - Blues Train To Keep Running
The upcoming AFL Round 11 clash sees the Carlton Blues, fresh from a morale-boosting win under interim coach Josh Fraser, take on a Yartapuulti side struggling in close games and beset by injuries. While betting models give Power a slight statistical edge, Carlton’s improved disposals, forward threat, and renewed energy tip expert recommendations their way. Expected successful player props include disposals for Walsh and Cripps and goals for Cripps and Carroll. The recommended bets are Carlton +11.5 and the Blues to go over 78.5 points.
- Carlton have momentum after a big win and new coach; Yartapuulti are struggling in close games.
- Betting models slightly favor Power, but expert tips back Carlton +11.5 and over 78.5 team points.
- Top props: Sam Walsh & Patrick Cripps 25+ disposals; Cripps & Matt Carroll multi-goals.
- The game will be played at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, 23rd May, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues
Yartapuulti vs Carlton Blues, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
Carlton just beat the Western Bulldogs with a new coach and a point to prove. Port Adelaide are losing close games. The Blues cover again.
- Yartapuulti vs Carlton Blues, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) vs Carlton Blues Team List & News
The model has Yartapuulti by 17.5 pts against a market line of 10.5, flagging it as a value bet with a 7.9% edge to the home side. But this is a model number that doesn't know Carlton have a new coach, a winning dressing room and momentum for the first time all season. The Blues hold a Disposals advantage of +22.6 in this matchup which is marginal in isolation but significant against a Port Adelaide side that has lost four of their last five games by an average of less than three points. Yartapuulti are not winning these close games and Carlton have shown they can stay in them.
The Power's attack rating of -6.5 and overall of -2.2 are numbers that tell you this is not the Port Adelaide of recent years. They are averaging just 84.8 pts and give up 80.6 on defence, a near-identical profile to the Blues who are at 79.7 on attack and 97.4 in defence. The Blues over 78.5 is the play on that defensive number alone. Add to that, Carlton generate 51.4 Inside 50s per game to Yartapuulti's defence that concedes 49.2 and their Scores per Inside 50 of 47.0 is more than enough to clear the target.
Patrick Cripps was back to his best with 29 Disposals and two goals against the Bulldogs and the momentum of a winning week for the Blues means the Disposals multi of Walsh 25+ and Cripps 25+ is well supported. Cripps and Matt Carroll in the goalscorer multi is the aggressive play from a team with something to play for.
Take Carlton +11.5 and the Blues over 78.5 team total. The Disposals multi of Sam Walsh 25+ and Patrick Cripps 25+, and the goalscorer multi of Patrick Cripps and Matt Carroll are the top player props.
- The model flags a 7.9% edge to Yartapuulti but Carlton hold a +22.6 Disposals advantage in this matchup and the Blues have momentum from a new coaching regime and their first win since Round 1.
- Yartapuulti have lost four of their last five games by an average of less than three points, the definition of a side that cannot close when the pressure is on.
- Carlton generate 51.4 Inside 50s per game against Yartapuulti's defensive concession of 49.2, with a Scores per Inside 50 of 47.0 that comfortably supports the Blues clearing 78.5.
- Patrick Cripps has back-to-back strong games with 32 and 29 Disposals plus three goals across the last fortnight, while Mitch Georgiades has kicked 3+ goals against Carlton in four of the last five head-to-head meetings for the prop hunters.
Head to Head Stats
Yartapuulti hold a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings and a 5-1 advantage at Adelaide Oval. However the most recent clash was a Carlton belting, 118-64 in Round 23 2025. The last five meetings have swung dramatically with margins of 54 pts, 50 pts, 14 pts, 36 pts and 50 pts.
Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) Form Analysis
Port Adelaide were competitive against Gold Coast in Darwin before fading in the final quarter of a 25 pt defeat, their fifth loss in six games. Zak Butters was outstanding with 35 Disposals and Jase Burgoyne added 28, but the Power trailed by 40 pts midway through the final term before a brief three-goal burst gave the scoreline a flattering look. They have been in every game this season and lost most of them.
The injury toll from the Darwin double-header is the added concern. The Power are also without Connor Rozee and Miles Bergman has been hampered, leaving Butters carrying significant responsibility as stand-in captain. A side at 3-7 that loses close games and is carrying injuries at home to a Blues side with new energy is a dangerous situation.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton ended their eight-game losing streak with a 12 pt win over the Western Bulldogs under interim coach Josh Fraser, with a fourth-quarter blitz that looked nothing like the fadeouts that had defined their season. Ollie Florent was outstanding with 28 Disposals and eight Intercepts, Patrick Cripps split time between the middle and forward to accumulate 29 Disposals and two goals, and Matt Carroll was the unlikely hero with three majors.
The turnaround in the final term was the most important part. Carlton kicked five goals to two after the last change against a depleted Bulldogs side and the energy was genuine. Harry McKay has now kicked five goals in two weeks and the combination of McKay, Cripps and Carroll gives the Blues a legitimate multi-pronged forward threat that Yartapuulti's defence, conceding 80.6 pts per game, is not equipped to handle.
Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) vs Carlton Blues Team List & News
Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) Team News: Todd Marshall, Jacob Wehr and Josh Lai all return, while Lachie Jones misses with concussion.
Carlton Blues Team News: Jacob Weitering and Ollie Hollands are both sidelined with injury, while Flynn Young, Tom Byrne and Willem Derksen come into the side.
| Port Adelaide | POS | Carlton |
|---|---|---|
| L. Evans, E. Ratugolea, T. Marshall | B | O. Florent, W. Derksen, L. Cowan |
| D. Byrne-Jones, A. Aliir, K. Farrell | HB | N. Newman, H. Dean, B. Wilson |
| E. Mackinlay, J. Horne-Francis, J. Burgoyne | C | A. Cerra, S. Walsh, M. Carroll |
| C. Moraes, M. Georgiades, J. Berry | HF | W. Hayward, B. Kemp, J. Ison |
| C. Durdin, J. Whitlock, J. Richards | F | T. Byrne, H. McKay, B. Ainsworth |
| J. Sweet, Z. Butters, W. Drew | FOLL | M. Pittonet, J. Smith, P. Cripps |
| J. Wehr, O. Wines, T. Anastasopoulos, J. Watkins, J. Lai | I/C | N. Haynes, G. Hewett, F. Young, M. McGovern, F. Evans |
Verdict
Take Carlton +11.5 and the Blues over 78.5 team total. The Disposals multi of Sam Walsh 25+ and Patrick Cripps 25+, and the goalscorer multi of Patrick Cripps and Matt Carroll are the top player props.
Carlton +11.5
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Walsh & Cripps 25+
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