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Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 11 Tips - Take the chance of value on the Swans

Jeremy Darke

Editor

Last updated: Fri 22 May 2026 09:39

Jeremy Darke 22 May 2026

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Sydney Swans tipped to cover +10.5 line as underdogs.
Geelong averaging 114 points; both teams in strong recent form.
Brodie Grundy expected to shine with 25+ disposals in a high-scoring match.
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, 23rd May, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 11 Tips

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Sydney Swans will do enough to cover the line as the underdog in Melbourne on Saturday afternoon, with ruckman Brodie Grundy having another outing for the Swans.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans Team List & News
Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s

Geelong comes in full of confidence after a dominant 41-point win over Brisbane at the Gabba, while Sydney extended its winning streak to seven matches with a gritty comeback win over Collingwood at the SCG.

The Cats have been one of the AFL’s best attacking sides over the past month, but Sydney’s elite midfield depth and consistency this season make the Swans attractive getting double digits.

Geelong has averaged 114 points across its last five games and continues to generate scores quickly through overlap run and transition ball movement. Sydney, meanwhile, remains the benchmark of the competition at 9-1 and ranks among the league leaders in disposals, inside 50s and contested possessions.

The Swans continue to pressure teams for four quarters and have consistently found ways to win close games under pressure. Geelong deserves respect at GMHBA Stadium, but Sydney’s current form and midfield strength make the +10.5 line appealing.

Brodie Grundy is carrying in some of the best form of his career and expected to elevate in this big-time match. Expect plenty of touches from the Swans ruckman and a big scoreline at GMHBA Stadium.

Sydney has won seven straight games.
Geelong is averaging 114 points in their last five matches.
Sydney ranks higher in disposals, inside 50s and clearances this season.
Brodie Grundy is coming off 34 disposals and 12 clearances last round.

TIPS: Jessie from True Footy's Round 12 Tips

Head to Head Stats

Recent meetings between these clubs have been mixed.

Geelong won by 43 points at GMHBA Stadium late last season, while Sydney claimed a comfortable 30-point win in 2024. The 2023 clash at the SCG finished in a draw.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis

Geelong has won four of its last five matches and is coming off one of its best performances of the season against Brisbane.

Shaun Mannagh starred with five goals and 30 disposals, while Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart controlled the game through midfield and defensive transition. Jeremy Cameron also continues to provide constant scoreboard pressure inside 50.

The Cats have now scored at least 117 points in three of their last four wins.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis

Sydney remains the AFL’s form side and has now won seven consecutive matches.

The Swans came from five goals down against Collingwood last round, dominating territory after half-time with 71 inside 50s and a massive third-quarter surge.

Brodie Grundy was enormous with 34 disposals, 46 hit-outs and 12 clearances, while Nick Blakey and Tom Papley again provided strong drive through transition.

Sydney is averaging 110 points across its last five matches while continuing to dominate contested possession and clearance battles.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans Team List & News

Geelong Cats Team News

The Cats go in unchanged after last week’s win over Brisbane.

Sydney Swans Team News

Caiden Cleary and Tom Hanily come into the side, while Harry Cunningham and Billy Cootee are omitted.

Geelong Cats	POS	Sydney Swans
M. O’Connor, C. O’Sullivan, T. Stewart	B	W. Edwards, T. McCartin, L. Melican
S. De Koning, Z. Guthrie, J. Henry	HB	S. Wicks, N. Blakey, C. Mills
M. Blicavs, B. Smith, O. Dempsey	C	J. Serong, C. Warner, J. Rowbottom
J. Cameron, S. Mannagh, B. Close	HF	M. Rosas, J. Jordon, J. Lloyd
P. Dangerfield, S. Neale, J. Martin	F	J. Amartey, C. Curnow, T. Papley
M. Edwards, M. Holmes, T. Atkins	FOLL	B. Grundy, I. Heeney, J. McInerney
L. Humphries, T. Bruhn, G. Miers, O. Mullin, O. Henry	I/C	R. Bice, A. Sheldrick, C. Cleary, T. Hanily, L. McDonald

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL 2026 Round 11 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

Brodie Grundy will have 25+ disposals for the Swans as they cover the +10.5 in a game that has over 189.5 points.

Sydney Swans +10.5

Handicap/Line

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