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Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows AFL Round 11 Tips - Hawks to Break the Slide

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Wed 20 May 2026 12:08

Ryan Tucker 20 May 2026

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Hawthorn have won 11 straight at UTAS Stadium, averaging 41-point margins.
Expert model tips Hawthorn -15.5 and team total over 89.5 points.
Adelaide’s away record vs Hawks (0-10 at UTAS) is a key concern.
The game will be played at UTAS Stadium on Thursday, 21st May, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn have lost two straight and the alarm bells are ringing. UTAS Stadium is where they silence them. The Hawks have won 11 in a row at their Launceston fortress by an average of 41 points and Adelaide are walking into that.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Team List & News

The model has Hawthorn by 14.2 pts with the line now shifted to -15.5. That's a tight gap but the venue premium is real and isn't fully captured in the model. Hawthorn's overall rating of +15.8 against Adelaide's +6.9 is the class differential you'd expect, and the Hawks' Disposals advantage of +29.4 in this matchup is the biggest structural edge on the board. They win Contested Possession by +11.0 on the season and their Clearances advantage of +2.0 against a Crows side that sits at -2.6 means the ball-winning battle runs decisively their way.

The Hawks over 89.5 is the sharper play given the model has them at 103.4. Hawthorn generate 55.6 Inside 50s per game and convert at 49.1%, against Adelaide's defensive concession of 53.8 Inside 50s allowed. Their Points from Turnovers of 63.9 is elite and the Crows have been leaky in that area, conceding 50.0 from that avenue. Adelaide were brilliant against North Melbourne last week but a 10-goal second quarter against the competition's worst defensive side is a difficult form line to trust at face value.

The Totals line is the standout number in the workbook. The model has an implied total of 192.6 against a market line of 165.0, an Over probability of 83.0% and an edge of +32.7%. That is an extraordinary gap. Both teams scoring over their averages is baked into the model here and the Hawks hitting their target of 103.4 alone gets us most of the way there.

Take Hawthorn -15.5 and the Hawks over 89.5 team total. Jordan Dawson to kick a goal and Josh Battle 21.5+ Disposals are the top player props.

Hawthorn have won 11 consecutive games at UTAS Stadium by an average of 41 points, a venue advantage the model does not fully price in.
Hawthorn average 92 pts per game over their last 5 Thursday night matches and 93 pts per game in their last 5 vs Adelaide.
Hawthorn hold a Disposals advantage of +29.4 in this matchup and win Contested Possession by +11.0 on the season, with Adelaide sitting at -2.6 in Clearances.
Josh Battle has averaged 23.8 Disposals in his last four games (24, 24, 22, 29) and is set up well against a Crows side that allows 361 Disposals per game to opponents.

TIPS: Jesse from True Footy's Round 11 Margin Best Bets

Head to Head Stats

Hawthorn hold a 6-4 record in the last 10 meetings and a 2-1 advantage at UTAS Stadium. The last five clashes have gone 101-67, 87-101, 47-44, 124-58 and 107-80, with Hawthorn averaging a +15.8 pt margin across that stretch. The three Launceston meetings specifically have been decided by 3 pts, 3 pts and 3 pts, though Hawthorn won two of those three, Adelaide will draw confidence from keeping it tight at the venue.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis

Hawthorn were outclassed by Narrm at the MCG, conceding 18.12 to fall to a 39 pt defeat that exposed their inability to slow opposition scoring from stoppages. Leading by just one point at half-time, the Hawks were overrun in the third quarter as Narrm kicked six goals to four and then ran away in the final term.

Dylan Moore led the Hawks with 27 Disposals and two goals, Karl Amon had 28 touches and Jai Newcombe picked up 24, but the forward line without Jack Gunston lacked the potency to keep pace. The return to Launceston, where they have been almost unbeatable, comes at the right time for a side that needs a confidence boost and a clean scoreline.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis

Adelaide finally delivered on their potential with a stunning 68 pt demolition of North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, highlighted by a 10-goal second quarter that was the club's best term in almost 11 years. Eight Crows finished with multiple goals with Josh Rachele leading the way with three, while Izak Rankine picked up 28 Disposals and Jordan Dawson was dominant with 24 touches and a goal.

The caveat is the opponent. North Melbourne were capitulating and seven Roos didn't touch the ball in that second quarter. Adelaide are 6-4 and a genuine contender but they face a vastly different test at UTAS Stadium, where their record reads 0-10 against the Hawks across all meetings at the venue.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows Team List & News

Hawthorn Hawks Team News: Sam Mitchell has swung the axe with Harry Morrison, Calsher Dear, Henry Hustwaite and Max Ramsden all omitted. Mabior Chol, Connor Nash, Bailey Macdonald and debutant Cameron Nairn come in.

Adelaide Crows Team News: Riley Thilthorpe and Callum Ah Chee return in a double boost, replacing injured pair Luke Pedlar and Isaac Cumming.

Hawthorn	POS	Adelaide Crows
J. Sicily, J. Battle, J. Impey	B	J. Worrell, J. Borlase, M. Michalanney
K. Amon, B. Hardwick, B. Ryan	HB	R. Laird, J. Butts, W. Milera
C. Macdonald, J. Ward, J. Weddle	C	J. Soligo, J. Dawson, B. Cook
D. Moore, M. Chol, J. Ginnivan	HF	I. Rankine, R. Thilthorpe, D. Curtin
C. Nairn, M. Lewis, N. Watson	F	A. Neal-Bullen, D. Fogarty, B. Keays
N. Reeves, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie	FOLL	L. McAndrew, J. Rachele, S. Berry
B. Macdonald, C. Nash, L. Meek, M. D’Ambrosio, F. Maginness	I/C	C. Ah Chee, Z. Taylor, J. Peatling, L. Nankervis, T. Murray

Verdict

Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows

Take Hawthorn -15.5 and the Hawks over 89.5 team total. Jordan Dawson to kick a goal and Josh Battle 21.5+ Disposals are the top player props.

Hawthorn -15.5

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