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North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns AFL Round 11 Tips - Suns Shine Too Bright for Joeys

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Fri 22 May 2026 09:35

Ryan Tucker 22 May 2026

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Gold Coast predicted to beat North Melbourne by 19.1 pts (line: -10.5).
Statistical edge: Suns dominate Inside 50s, intercepts & scoring from turnovers.
Recommended bets: Gold Coast -10.5 & Over 182.5 total points.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 23rd May, with the bounce at 1:15 PM (AEST)

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction

North Melbourne folded against Adelaide after a bright start and have now done it three times this season. Gold Coast are the form team in the competition and arrive fresh off two Darwin wins. The Suns cover this comfortably.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns Team List & News

The model has Gold Coast by 19.1 pts against a market line of 10.5, a 8.6 pt edge and a flagged value bet. The Suns' overall rating of +8.2 against North's -7.8 is the gap you'd expect from a top-four side taking on a bottom-half outfit still prone to catastrophic fade-outs. Gold Coast generate 58.1 Inside 50s per game to North's defence which concedes 52.9 per game, they win Intercepts by +10.6 in this matchup and their Points from Turnovers of 60.0 against North's leaky 51.2 on defence creates a compounding scoring advantage every time the Roos cough it up.

The fatigue factor cuts both ways here. Gold Coast lost both games after their Darwin double-header in two of the past three years, which is the legitimate concern. But North are 4-6 and averaging just 95.2 pts while conceding 95.8 on defence. The Roos were belted by 68 pts in their last meeting with the Suns and have lost four of their last five games. Whatever rust the Suns carry from Darwin won't save a North Melbourne side that couldn't maintain a quarter of momentum against Adelaide.

The Game Total over 182.5 is where the real value sits. North are conceding 95.8 pts per game on defence and the Suns are averaging 99.3 pts on attack. Gold Coast's Points from Stoppage of 34.8 against North's defensive concession of 39.2 from that avenue means the Suns generate efficiently from the contest. North's own attack has been live, averaging 92.6 pts, and they generate 52.1 Inside 50s per game. Both sides in a high-paced contest at Marvel Stadium comfortably gets this over 182.5.

Take Gold Coast -10.5 and the Game Total to go Over 182.5. The Charlie Spargo and Christian Petracca goalscorer multi and Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals are the top player props.

The model has Gold Coast by 19.1 pts against a market line of 10.5, flagged as a value bet with an edge of 9.7%.
Gold Coast generate 58.1 Inside 50s per game, win Intercepts by +10.6 in this matchup and score 60.0 Points from Turnovers against North's defensive concession of 51.2.
North Melbourne have folded in the final quarter three times this season, most recently conceding a 10-goal second quarter against Adelaide after leading at quarter-time.
North concede 95.8 pts per game on defence while the Suns are averaging 99.3 on attack, with both sides generating high Inside 50s counts that support the Game Total going Over 182.5.

Head to Head Stats

Gold Coast hold a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. The last five clashes have produced margins of 52 pts, 4 pts, 68 pts, 35 pts and 43 pts in Gold Coast's favour for four of those five, with an average losing margin of 24.8 pts for North. The most recent result was a 141-89 Gold Coast belting in Round 5 2025.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis

North Melbourne were humiliated by Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, conceding a 10-goal second quarter after leading at quarter-time to slump to a 68 pt defeat. The Roos managed just three goals and six behinds in the first three quarters combined after their initial burst and seven players didn't touch the ball in that catastrophic second term.

Luke Parker led the side with 28 Disposals and Harry Sheezel picked up 24, but against a Crows pressure rating of 294 at one stage in the second quarter, the entire team folded. It is the third time this season North have been competitive for a quarter before falling apart, and the pattern is becoming a defining feature of the Clarkson era.

Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis

Gold Coast made it a perfect 10 from 10 at TIO Stadium with a 25 pt win over Port Adelaide in Darwin, holding off a late Power charge through Jed Walter's third goal to seal the result. Noah Anderson was outstanding with 33 Disposals and eight Clearances and Matt Rowell returned from an ankle injury to add 23 touches and six Clearances.

The injury toll was a concern with Lachie Weller leaving with a hamstring and Will Graham concussed in the second quarter, with the Suns having to navigate the second half shorthanded. Both players are in doubt this week. The Suns have won four of their last five and arrive at Marvel Stadium with top-four momentum despite the short turnaround from Darwin.

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns Team List & News

North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News: Riley Hardeman replaces Tom Blamires in the Roos’ only change.

Gold Coast Suns Team News: Ben Long and Sam Clohesy return after Lachie Weller and Will Graham were ruled out injured.

North Melbourne	POS	Gold Coast Suns
W. Dawson, G. Logue, C. Comben	B	O. Adams, S. Collins, M. Andrew
C. McKercher, C. Daniel, L. Parker	HB	B. Uwland, W. Powell, D. Rioli
J. Simpkin, F. O’Sullivan, D. Stephens	C	J. Jeffrey, C. Petracca, J. Noble
P. Curtis, C. Trembath, C. Spargo	HF	B. Humphrey, L. Gulbin, T. Miller
C. Zurhaar, N. Larkey, Z. Duursma	F	J. Walter, B. King, B. Long
T. Xerri, L. Davies-Uniacke, H. Sheezel	FOLL	N. Moyle, N. Anderson, M. Rowell
G. Wardlaw, L. McDonald, R. Hardeman, J. Darling, J. Konstanty	I/C	N. Holman, L. Lombard, J. Witts, Z. Uwland, S. Clohesy

Verdict

North Melbourne Kangaroos v Gold Coast Suns

Take Gold Coast -10.5 and the Game Total to go Over 182.5. The Charlie Spargo and Christian Petracca goalscorer multi and Noah Anderson 30+ Disposals are the top player props.

Gold Coast -10.5

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