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Jesse’s AFL Round 11 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 19 May 2026 15:11

Jesse Mclure 19 May 2026

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Jesse predicts winners and margins for every AFL Round 11 match.
Several games have major ladder or finals implications.
Key factors considered include form, injuries, and home ground advantage.

Jesse from True Footy's Round 11 AFL Tips. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

AFL Round 11 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Round 11 feels like a defining point in the AFL season.

AFL Round 11 Tips 2026: Jesse’s Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction
Essendon vs Richmond Prediction
Fremantle vs St Kilda Prediction
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction
Geelong vs Sydney Prediction
Collingwood vs West Coast Prediction
Port Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction
GWS Giants vs Brisbane Prediction
Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction

The top teams are beginning to separate, several finals hopefuls are under pressure, and a few clubs are desperately trying to keep their seasons alive. With potential upsets everywhere and multiple games carrying major ladder implications, this shapes as one of the toughest tipping rounds of the year.

Here are Jesse’s tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 11 game.

Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction

Hawthorn’s form has cooled slightly over the past month, particularly around stoppages where they’ve been heavily exposed. Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore continue to drive the Hawks, but their midfield vulnerability remains a concern.

Adelaide have quietly built momentum, winning four of their last five and showing signs their midfield is starting to click. Jordan Dawson’s return to form has been crucial, though the Tasmania factor still slightly favours Hawthorn.

Jesse’s Tip: Hawthorn by 10 points

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Essendon vs Richmond Prediction

This shapes as a genuine spoon-bowl clash between two rebuilding sides trying to stay competitive despite injury concerns.

Richmond arguably enter with slightly better form, with Tim Taranto and Noah Balta continuing to fight hard, but their growing injury list may finally start to catch up with them. Essendon have at least shown competitiveness against stronger opposition recently.

Jesse’s Tip: Essendon by 9 points

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Fremantle vs St Kilda Prediction

Fremantle continue to look like one of the AFL’s most complete teams, with Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton all in excellent form.

St Kilda, however, are quietly building momentum and have historically challenged Fremantle well. Jack Sinclair and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera continue to drive the Saints’ ball movement, making this a genuine danger game for the Dockers.

Jesse’s Tip: Fremantle by 6 points

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North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction

North Melbourne were blown away by Adelaide for one disastrous quarter last week, but their overall improvement this season remains obvious.

Gold Coast continue to bank wins without fully dominating games, despite the midfield class of Christian Petracca, Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. Marvel Stadium remains a difficult venue for the Suns though, and North’s clearance work could trouble them.

Jesse’s Tip: North Melbourne Kangaroos by 11 points

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Geelong vs Sydney Prediction

This could easily be a Grand Final preview. Geelong appear to be hitting top gear again, with Bailey Smith and Shaun Mannagh both starring in recent weeks.

Sydney remain the benchmark of the competition, with Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney continuing to lead one of the league’s most dangerous attacking systems. But at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong’s current form may just give them the edge.

Jesse’s Tip: Geelong by 25 points

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Collingwood vs West Coast Prediction

Most of the attention this week has centred around Harley Reid’s return to the MCG and the atmosphere surrounding the game.

Collingwood remain far stronger structurally, with Nick Daicos leading their ball movement and Scott Pendlebury expected back in the side. West Coast showed improvement last week, but their defensive issues remain significant.

Jesse’s Tip: Collingwood by 39 points

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Port Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction

Both sides sit lower on the ladder than expected but have shown improvement over the past month.

Carlton’s win last week may have sparked belief following the coaching change, with Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh leading the resurgence. Port Adelaide, however, have also lifted considerably through Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis and remain dangerous at Adelaide Oval.

Jesse’s Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points

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GWS Giants vs Brisbane Prediction

GWS continue to frustrate, with their elite ball movement and attacking potential only appearing in patches this season.

Brisbane were disappointing against Geelong but remain one of the competition’s strongest sides overall. Lachie Neale and Zac Bailey should help the Lions respond strongly against an inconsistent Giants outfit.

Jesse’s Tip: Brisbane Lions by 26 points

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Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction

The Bulldogs are in genuine free fall, with injuries and poor form creating major problems despite Marcus Bontempelli continuing to fight hard.

Melbourne, meanwhile, have become one of the form teams of the competition. Kozzy Pickett, Max Gawn and their improved ball movement have transformed the Demons into a legitimate top-four contender.

Jesse’s Tip: Melbourne Demons by 19 points