Lorenzo Musetti vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Tsitsipas good value for Vienna upset

It's been a nightmare season for Tsitsipas - he's tumbled out of the top 20 and is down at No. 29 in the ATP Race for Turin. The Greek hasn't won back-to-back matches since Barcelona in April and is a shadow of the player he used to be. However, this represents a golden chance for Tsitsipas to register a win over a top 10 player and start building momentum again.

Musetti hasn't been in great form lately - he's looked fatigued in Shanghai and Brussels and has the pressure of trying to qualify for the ATP Finals in his home country for the first time. If that wasn't the case, I dare say Musetti would have taken one of these weeks off, but he simply can't afford to - especially with rivals Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime winning title last week. Obviously on current form Musetti should be favourite, but Tsitsipas at $3.10 with PlayUp is great value. I'm playing the odds and backing the Greek to register what would be a sixth win over the Italian.

Tsitsipas leads 5-2, but Musetti has won the last two meetings which took place in 2025. Tsitsipas did however cover a +3.5 games line in 1-6 6-3 6-4 and 7-5 7-6 defeats in Monte Carlo and Madrid respectively.

Musetti heads into this encounter with a 38-17 record on the season, breaking into the top 10 and giving himself a strong chance to qualify for the season-ending ATP Finals.

The Italian is currently No. 8 in the ATP Race, but faces stiff competition from the likes of Ruud and Auger-Aliassime, while Daniil Medvedev has also propelled himself into contention.

It hasn't been a great last month or so for Musetti - he suffered more finals heartbreak as he went down in the Chengdu title match to Alejandro Tabilo before being forced to retire in Beijing.

Musetti then went down to Auger-Aliassime in the Shanghai R16 before having the misfortune of running into Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the second round of Brussels last week.

The 23-year-old will be playing in Vienna for the third time - he lost in R1 in 2021 and 2023, but made a run to the semi-finals last year, beating Alexander Zverev along the way.

It's been an extremely disappointing year for Tsitsipas - he's put together a 22-18 record and dropped to No. 25 in the world.

Normally it would be Tsitsipas who would be in contention for the season-ending ATP Finals, but that's certainly not the case this year.

The Greek hasn't won consecutive matches on tour since Barcelona in April and comes into this showdown having lost 10 of his last 13 outings overall.

Tsitsipas' most recent tour-level event was the US Open, where he was bundled out in the second round by Daniel Altmaier, while he made an appearance at the Six Kings Slam last week, where he was trounced by Jannik Sinner.

The 27-year-old is a perfect 4-0 in Vienna first round matches, most recently making the semi-finals in 2023.