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NFL Week 4 Best Bets 2026 – Tips, Picks & Predictions

Ryan Tucker

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Fact Checked by Jeremy Darke

Last updated: Thu. 01 Oct. 2026 13:03

Ryan Tucker 01 Oct. 2026

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Bills poised to win vs Patriots; defense key to their Lock of the Week status.
Vikings, Browns, and Falcons picked for strong defensive showings and recent momentum.
Top strategy: Trust form and defense for Week 4 bets.

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NFL Week 4 Best Bets

NFL Week 4 is here and three weeks of football have already given us plenty to work with.

Drake Maye has thrown six interceptions in three games, Minnesota's defence has been one of the toughest units in football, while Atlanta's offence exploded into life in Week 3.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

We've picked out four games from the Week 4 schedule where we think the matchup points strongly towards one side, including our Lock of the Week.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Our four best bets for NFL Week 4 are:

Buffalo Bills to Win vs New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings to Win vs Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns to Win vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons to Win vs New Orleans Saints

Lock of the Week: Buffalo Bills to Win

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Best Bet: Buffalo Bills to Win

The Buffalo Bills are our first bet of Week 4 as they look to extend their perfect 3-0 start against a New England Patriots team coming off a brutal 35-6 defeat against Jacksonville.

The biggest concern for New England is what happens when Drake Maye drops back to pass.

Maye has thrown at least one interception in every game this season, with six picks through his opening three appearances. Now he faces a Buffalo defence coming off its best performance of the season, holding the Chargers to 16 points and allowing them to convert just one of four trips into the red zone.

The matchup up front could be just as problematic for New England. Gregory Rousseau is averaging two sacks per game with three forced fumbles, while Patriots right tackle Morgan Moses has struggled when matched against elite pass rushers.

Buffalo doesn't necessarily need Josh Allen and the offence to put together a monster performance here. If the Bills can pressure Maye and continue forcing turnovers, they should get enough opportunities to take control.

Key Stats:

Drake Maye has thrown six interceptions through three games.
Gregory Rousseau is averaging two sacks per game with three forced fumbles.
Buffalo held the Chargers to 16 points in Week 3.
The Bills enter Week 4 with a 3-0 record.

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins

Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings to Win

Minnesota's defence has been outstanding through three weeks and now gets an opportunity to attack a struggling Miami offence.

The Vikings enter Week 4 at 3-0 after allowing just 16 points against Tampa Bay, continuing a start in which no opponent has scored more than 22 points against them.

It's the pressure Minnesota generates that makes this matchup particularly difficult for Miami. The Vikings lead the NFL in sacks through three weeks and hit the quarterback 12 times in Week 3.

Miami hasn't shown enough offensively to convince us it can punish Minnesota at the other end. Malik Willis has one touchdown and two interceptions with a completion percentage in the low 60s, while Miami's backup running game has struggled to generate consistent yardage without Devon Achane.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been explosive offensively either, but we're happy to trust its defence to control this matchup.

Key Stats:

Minnesota ranks first in sacks through three games.
The Vikings rank first in opposition passer rating.
Minnesota has allowed fewer than 23 points in all three games.
The Vikings enter Week 4 undefeated at 3-0.

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Bet: Cleveland Browns to Win

Thursday Night Football brings an AFC North battle to Cleveland, and we're backing the Browns to make home-field advantage count.

Cleveland has won six of its last seven home meetings with Pittsburgh and is 3-0 when hosting the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

More importantly, there are signs that Cleveland can win the battle at the line of scrimmage.

The Browns generated a massive 51% pressure rate last week, with Mason Graham recording a sack for the third consecutive game. Pittsburgh's protection had problems of its own in Week 3, with guard Mason McCormick responsible for both sacks allowed by Aaron Rodgers.

Pittsburgh's pass rush wasn't nearly as productive at the other end, finishing with a pressure rate below 30% and recording only one sack against Cincinnati.

That should give Cleveland an opportunity to lean on its running game, where Quinshon Judkins could benefit from a Steelers defence ranked fourth in yards after contact allowed.

It's a divisional matchup that could remain tight deep into the fourth quarter, but the Browns at home are the side we're backing.

Key Stats:

Cleveland has won six of its last seven home games against Pittsburgh.
The Browns are 3-0 when hosting Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football.
Cleveland generated a 51% pressure rate in Week 3.
Pittsburgh recorded just one sack against Cincinnati.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons to Win

Atlanta's offence finally clicked in Week 3, and we're backing the Falcons to carry that momentum into Monday Night Football in New Orleans.

Michael Penix Jr. threw for more than 250 yards at over 10 yards per attempt against Green Bay, while Bijan Robinson exploded for 194 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per carry and scored twice.

Perhaps most impressive was the protection. Atlanta didn't allow a single sack despite facing a Green Bay defence that blitzed on around 40% of its defensive snaps.

New Orleans presents another opportunity because the Saints led Las Vegas 27-16 last week before turnovers helped completely change the game. Tyler Shough lost two fumbles on sacks as New Orleans eventually fell 35-27.

There could also be an opportunity for Drake London after the Saints allowed Brock Bowers to command 13 targets last week. If Atlanta can again protect Penix and get Robinson established on the ground, London should have opportunities against this secondary.

The Falcons aren't without defensive concerns of their own, but their offensive ceiling makes them our preferred side in New Orleans.

Key Stats:

Bijan Robinson rushed for 194 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3.
Robinson averaged 6.7 yards per carry.
Atlanta allowed zero sacks despite facing a 40% blitz rate.
New Orleans committed four turnovers in its Week 3 loss to Las Vegas.

Verdict

NFL 26/27 Week 4

Top Picks for Week 4 of the NFL

Buffalo Bills -6.5

Line

$1.83 - 2 Units

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Minnesota -10.5

Line

$1.90 - 3 Units

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Cleveland Browns

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Atlanta Falcons

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