NFL AFC Futures: The Best Value Bets Hiding in Every Division

The AFC win totals are out and most of the public money is going to the obvious teams. We went digging through the pre-season chatter to find the picks that actually offer value, two per division, one we're backing hard and one that's a lottery ticket worth a small stake if you want some fun on the board. NFC futures to come.

Brown was stuck in a run-heavy Philadelphia offence that leaned on the tush push inside the five, capping his red zone numbers at just one 10-touchdown season in four years. New England is a different story. Drake May threw for almost 4,400 yards and 31 touchdowns as a first year starter but the Patriots were 25th running the ball, exactly the kind of offence that needs a big body to turn 50/50s into 70/30s near the goal line. Brown hit 11 touchdowns in his first year in Tennessee before tush push ever existed.

Miami's $67 million man is a running quarterback first, passer second. In four appearances last year he played over 60% of the snaps twice, carrying nine times for 44 yards in both. Push that rate over a full season and the math points to four figures on the ground. With a thin receiving corps, points have to come from the run game, designed or otherwise.

Henry has hit 1,500 rushing yards in three of the last four seasons, tied for the most 1,500 yard seasons in NFL history at 32 years old with no signs of slowing. Baltimore's new offensive coordinator knows exactly which side his bread is buttered on, and if Henry is within range of the mark late in the year, expect the carries to keep coming even once the game is decided.

Cleveland's second round receiver fell to pick 39 despite big expectations and is already building a strong camp connection with Shedeur Sanders. His odds in this market are longer than fellow rookie Jaylen Conception's, a surprising gap given the buzz. With Cleveland's quarterback picture unsettled, whoever wins camp reps is live for a big workload.

Collins has been a 1,000 yard receiver every year he's stayed healthy, including 1,000 yards in just 15 games last season. The addition of David Montgomery finally gives Houston a real ground threat, opening up exactly the play-action looks that get Collins the ball in space. He finished second only to Puka Nacua in yards per route run last year.

Houston is the rightful favourite but every other team in this division carries real question marks. Jacksonville is set up for serious turnover regression, and Indianapolis opens as underdogs in three straight games with a quarterback room built around a guy coming off a torn Achilles. Tennessee opens with the Jets, Eagles and Giants, a stretch where a 2-1 start is realistic. Small stakes, big multiplier if the rest of the division stumbles as expected.

Johnston is the primary red zone target in an offence now run by Mike McDaniel, who led the NFL in passing yards and rushing touchdowns and finished second in total scoring two seasons ago. He scored eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons despite playing behind one of the league's worst red zone offensive lines. With Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back healthy, this offence should look completely different inside the twenty.

Bowers commanded 121 targets across a full 17 game slate two seasons ago, and the Kyle Pitts comp under a Kurt Cousins-led offence is an obvious one. Five to six catches a game gets him comfortably into elite reception territory. As a longshot to lead the entire league in catches, this is worth a small stake given how heavily the offence is expected to funnel through him.