Roosters vs Knights NRL Predictions - Threading the needle with some long odds Grand Final SGMs backed by stats

• Roosters vs Knights: Full Betting Preview & Best Bets
• Clive Churchill Medal Predictions
• NRL Grand Final First Tryscorer Predictions

The Roosters Blowout - 6-Leg SGM

1. Roosters -19.5 @ $3.50
2. Under 50.5 Total Points @ $1.30
3. Sam Walker 1+ Try @ $3.80
4. Robert Toia 1+ Try @ $2.55
5. Dom Young 1+ Try @ $2.50
6. Clive Churchill - Sam Walker @ $4.75

• Roosters have won their last two games by an average of 26 points. Knights have played three ridiculous sudden-death games to make an unlikely final - decent chance they're gassed and fade in the second half here
• The last 24 Grand Finals have seen Under 50.5 total points
• Walker has scored 11 tries in 22 games this season, including vs Knights in R7
• Toia has scored 1+ try in his last five games, while the Knights have leaked 1+ try to opposition centres in four of their last five outings
• Young remains Newcastle's most likely - he's scored 23 tries in 26 games this season, including 1+ in six of his last seven & vs Roosters in R1
• No winger, centre or interchange player has ever won the Clive Churchill Medal, while 27 of the last 28 winners had played either a previous GF, Origin or a Test match. Additionally, 23 of the last 28 were aged between 23-28 - that narrows down the list and if the Chooks are to win big, Walker is going to play a starring role. Four of the last five medals have been awarded to a halfback or fullback, with 36 of the 40 going to a player in the winning team

Knights Complete Fairytale - 6-leg SGM

1. Knights 1-12 @ $3.70
2. Under 50.5 Points @ $1.30
3. Bradman Best 1+ Try @ $3.80
4. Francis Manuleleua 1+ Try @ $5.80
5. James Tedesco 1+ Try @ $2.60
6. Clive Churchill - Kalyn Ponga @ $7.00

• Newcastle's three finals in this finals series have been by a 1-12 margin with 36 total points or less, while four of the last five meetings have been decided by four points or less & six of the last seven GFs have been decided by a 1-12 margin
• Best is a genuine big game player - he's risen to the occasion and can do it again in his first GF having scored 1+ try in his last three appearances vs Roosters
• Roosters have leaked 1+ try to an opposition second-rower in five of their last six games - Manuleleua has burst onto the scene in the back-end of the season & scored a try vs Panthers last week
• Tedesco also lifts for the big games & he has a good record vs Newcastle, scoring four tries in his last two appearances against them
• If the Knights are to win, then I think Ponga has to play lights out - he's taken a leadership role within the team this season, so if Newcastle do pull off the fairytale, there's a strong change the superstar fullback has a blinder - he also fits all of the Churchill Medal criteria listed in the previous SGM

Chooks In A Close One: The Most Likely Game Script - 5-Leg SGM

1. Roosters 1-12 @ $2.88
2. Under 50.5 Points @ $1.33
3. Daniel Tupou 1+ Try @ $1.86
4. Dom Young 1+ Try @ $2.40
5. Siua Wong 1+ Try @ $5.00

• Roosters have won 20 of the last 23 meetings between the teams, including two already this season - see above for margin stats
• See above for Grand Final Total Points stats
• Tupou has scored 15 tries in 17 games this season, including 1+ in his last six night games in Sydney. Tupou is the biggest aerial threat in the game and no doubt Walker will target his winger with attacking bombs throughout the night
• See above for Young stats
• Wong has scored a try in two of his last four games vs Knights - he runs hard on the edge and could take advantage of some fatigued Knights players as the games goes on

Cherry On Top - 5-Leg SGM

1. Daly Cherry-Evans 1+ Try @ $4.50
2. Clive Churchill - Daly Cherry-Evans @ $8.00
3. Under 50.5 Points @ $1.30
4. Mark Nawaqanitawase 1+ Try @ $1.82
5. Robert Toia 1+ Try @ $2.50

• Cherry-Evans won the Grand Final with Manly in his first season of NRL and now could end his career by securing one with the Roosters - he's scored 1+ try in four of his last five games at Accor. If he scores again and perhaps registers a try assist or two, the narrative plays a part and the veteran playmaker could easily pick up the medal
• Nawaqanitawase is on fire - he's score 20 tries in 22 games this season, including five in his last three, while he scored a double vs Knights in R7
• See above for stats on Toia & Total Points

Longshot Tryscorers - 3-Leg SGM

1. Fletcher Sharpe 1st or 2nd Try @ $7.50
2. Jermaine McEwen Anytime Try @ $6.50
3. Lindsay Collins Anytime Try @ $8.00

• Sharpe has scored 13 tries this season and incredibly, eight of them have been the first or second try of the game - the electric five-eighth has a habit of making an impact early and his support play is up there with the best in the game. He could have had a ninth last week vs Panthers, but Best found big Francis instead
• McEwen has stepped up big time in the Knights' run into October - he's scored a try in three of his last four games and again, the Chooks have conceded 1+ try to opposition second rowers in five of their last six
• Collins has a habit of barging over in big games - he scored a try for Queensland in Origin 1 earlier this season, while he's also scored four tries in 12 games for Australia. The Roosters prop has scored a try against both the Sharks & Dolphins this finals series and looks huge value at $8.00 to cross in his first Grand Final